How to invest in art in a time of crisis. Situation 2017
ARTinvestment.RU   23 января 2017

Eight years more-менее bad economic conditions freed from many illusions. But life at art-рынке not stopped. Just it is necessary to adapt. How? Below — advice from a position of real experience ARTinvestment.RU

the Time is now, that without dialectics is not enough, no yardstick to measure and without the glasses do not understand. On the one hand, prices are now low, at about 12-летней ago. It turns out to buy today profitable, and to use it. So-то it. But on the other hand, it is clear that prices are therefore low, around bad. And the improvement will come, not today and not tomorrow. Investments — is not just about how cheap to buy. Need even more expensive to sell. And if the first paragraph is now the moment is really good, the second — still longing.

How to be?

fortunately, the crisis came yesterday (strange as it may sound). Thank God, it is the third year of living under sanctions (no matter how monstrous it may sound again). During this time, ARTinvestment.RU carried out more than 160 auctions and not one post-auction sale. In short, something in this crisis we were able to understand what-то even to become skilled.

Not claiming to be the only truth, the proposed conclusions that we came to your mind:

1. In the short term return of investments are better not count. It could be used to buy and have at least a year to resell. Now — no. This, of course, is not about the version of supermicrobikini type "buy Natta Konysheva 10, 000 and immediately resold for 15,000 rubles, earning a fabulous 50 %". Such things often happen even today. But if you talk about how much-нибудь real investment buy — from $5,000 (Yes, not to fat) up to $100,000, it is time to thing "advisees" for resale at a profit, need a lot more. How much? Three years at least. And this is just my feelings. No one really has no idea exactly when this will end.

2. Liquidity crisis is more important than profit potential. Consumers now think not only about how much this painting or drawing can bring them in the future. And they are right. In crisis life circumstances can change rapidly and undesirable. To meet them better with things that can be sold in the public market quickly. Discounted as anything but fast. The conclusion: keep in collection of artists, which in the case which are willing buy and other collectors. A small list of liquid in Russia, for example, see and here and here. Or both and here. However, in the latter case, the rating takes into account sales not only in Russia but throughout the world. Including sales in England, from which there is not much use.

However, even without regard to the crisis, it is always better to invest in artists, which many buy and sell (including at auction market) and where there is a demand not a small group of enthusiasts and experts, and many market participants.

3. Expensive masterpieces in Russia during the crisis are also sold difficult. It is only abroad have a rule that in a crisis the prices of things of better quality do not fall. They have it happening in a developed market with a large number of participants, with clear laws and without restrictions onexports. We have the same life is not textbook. Masterpieces usually are very expensive, and the number of collectors among the wealthy is relatively small. The crisis that began in 2014-м showed that even if you have a conditional nezamutnennymi Aivazovsky for $300,000, while the same on "Sotbis" sold for $500,000, it will still run to sell it. And sell in the end, not over $300 000 and $250 000. And with great difficulty. Why? For the domestic market is already a very serious money while abroad is to take out the antique masterpiece of the law was either too expensive or even forbidden (if it is more than 100 years). Therefore, further see clause 4.

4. Ceteris paribus it is better to invest in items, export of which is not prohibited by law. That is, at least in those, which is much less than 100 years. It is, however, also does not guarantee the possibility of export. Even the young things of high cultural significance may not be allowed to take out. And that allowed, the fee can "charge" higher bar. And what then to do? Cm. p. 5.

5. Torn between antique, classic and postwar modernism, other things being equal in a crisis it is better to prefer the second. Buy sixties with them calmly. Yes, it's not a valid comparison and generalization. But we're not talking about justice at all, but about the year 2017, right? So, since about 2013 (since the start of the auction) and still we can experience to claim that higher demand and interest all this time we are using the sixties. This is speaking of expensive, the investment level things. And as well the lower segment of modern art, approximately 60 000. But for serious investment this option is not practical.

6. You need to regularly check your choice and-то to sell. In a crisis — especially. To make solid purchases without such a test fight short-sighted. It produces illusions and fantasies. Neophytes uveshivat wall that liked it, visualizing how their work getting more expensive. And not the fact that it is so. In the end, investing should not turn into blind hoarding. Try to sell previously purchased. Left more or for the same money — so that's all right. Well, if not, then you need to analyze and timely lesson. Add that to fall in love with one artist from an investment point of view, is particularly risky. Although this phase take place very many neophytes.

7. In a crisis, forget about logic "even in the worst case I don't make it, but-то'll always be able to return". It is self-deception. Same as the sweeping statement "Art always goes up in price." It is not always growing. And so with these freaks in the economy even more. Many good artists in the period from 2007 to 2017 fell as much in rubles. I emphasize: good. And in the dollar dipped by almost every classic of the XIX century, the sixties or socialist realism. Well it was only the Russian avant-garde, and in London. But the price of admission in this particular world many people cannot afford. Conclusion? You can't invest on the latter. You need to understand, and even better to overestimate risks. And even better to reinforce his confidence in the manner described in clause 6 — perhaps the most useful item of all these.

so, we start fromreality. What characterizes the current crisis. First: there is a low price — in two and more times lower than in 2007-2008, in terms of dollars. This, believe me, already had experienced dealers. So prices are about the bottom. Second, the duration of the crisis is unpredictable. Unlike past recessions, when there was a natural background and cyclical, and now we were pushing policy. It is clear that one day the clouds will part, but after three years or after 10 years — nobody knows.

in these circumstances, it would be wise to behave novice collector and investor? I have three parting words:

1. No need to play against the market. At least, to clearly focus on the pool of liquid authors. And we should not delude ourselves with illusions that are not in demand today, fabulous tomorrow suddenly will rise in price. It is possible, but this is the game for professionals.

2. No need to overpay. Not the right time. Overpaying is no big trouble if we are talking about a masterpiece. But it is such nuances that the teeth only to professionals. About the same as most correctly to assess the situation and not overpay, you can read here.

3. When in doubt, it is better to withdraw from the transaction. This relates primarily to authentication (see "How not to buy a fake"), as well as confidence in the place of purchase (see "Why buy art at auction?"). Good opportunities will still not need to fuss. Especially at the beginning.

Vladimir Bogdanov, AI