The threat of "haircuts" deposits. Implications for art-рынка
ARTinvestment.RU   11 февраля 2016

Well, the ability to withdraw deposits until denied. Too bad that she is under serious consideration

Times such that from the headlines in the business press of eyes on the forehead climb. Include the computer in the morning, and there — "the Ministry of Finance made a conversion of deposits of citizens in the capital of problem banks". Quote:

"Large deposits of private persons can be forcibly converted into equity of troubled banks, said Deputy Finance Minister Alexei Moiseev. Earlier was supposed to save banks at the expense of the companies.

As reported by Moiseev, large deposits — ranging in size from 100 million rubles. — individuals can be forcibly converted to financial recovery in the capital of the troubled Russian banks within the framework of the new mechanism bail-in (forced conversion of creditors of the third turn in subordinated debt or share capital of the Bank). "In fact, the economic activities of individuals with such large deposits do not differ from legal", — is quoted by the official TASS" (source: rbc.ru).

believe it or not.

on the other hand, why not? Do we before observed of the absurd? The law on the prohibition of dollar deposits in the Duma a couple of years ago made? was Made. Contributions SBS-Агро after the 1998 crisis, coupons for home appliances issued? Issued. And it will agree, podkovannye.

Why not believe in bail-in (-научному called "haircut")? Or not believe in forced conversion of dollar deposits into rubles? Or prohibition of foreign currency deposits? Or in a ban on the withdrawal of currency, as in the neighboring state?

here and Europe here in the us example. "Haircut" of large deposits has been recently applied in the Republic of Cyprus — a member of the European Union. In 2013 several thousands of depositors in Bank of Cyprus lost 47.5 percent of deposits over 100 000 euros, receiving in return shares of the Bank. Yes, not all selected. But many of those who modestly hoped to live a "Freeloader", unexpectedly became "partners".

we, of course, is not what-нибудь Cyprus. But the nervousness already present. Now talking about the threshold of 100 million rubles. And then "length" haircuts with discussing 100 million rubles can easily review and reduce the threshold to "Cyprus" RUR 9 million (that is EUR 100 000 in equivalent). Oil to the flames weekly news about the revocation of licenses, including the giants of the level of Vneshprombank whose owners manage to escape, despite the vaunted control of the Central Bank and the efforts of the security services. Run away with the money, leaving investors one-on-one with the astonished by Agency on insurance of contributions. This, of course, better than before. Let me remind you that today the law "About insurance of contributions of physical persons in banks of the Russian Federation" (article 11) guarantees to depositors the payment of 1.4 million rubles for one contribution, including currency. It's about 18 thousand dollars at current exchange rate. That is, in order to place assets in Bank one million dollars, you need 55 such state-guaranteed deposits. Uncomfortable. And worse, everyone understands that DIA is not rubber.

Therefore, money on Deposit in Russian banks, millionaires are not holding a often. Who has not taken out abroad (and there is not too easy: in Switzerland the Russians have already begun to disturb greatly), that holds in the cell or home — on-разному. Or consider other options.

You, probably, have decided that from now on, we will begin to agitate for art as the only alternative to cash? Not quite. Yes, there is an opinion that if the game deposits become dangerous, people will rush to buy art. But there is another opinion that there is no direct connection. Personally, I do not believe that the crisis millionaires will rush EN masse to buy the art. For a variety of reasons. Because in art what-то understands the strength of 1 % of 155 thousand Russian millionaires. And for those who do not understand, the investment in works of art obviously a risky option. It will not mass, because in contrast to the same stock art cannot instantly pay in the money. That crisis is especially important. But most importantly — items investment grade not so easy to find. Need to wait for an occasion.

Generally, in a crisis cannot do well is to sell. And art including. The crisis can only sit with money and waiting to buy-то unique cheaper than before.

But what to buy? Let's look at that in the crisis fell, and the fact that in the midst of crisis are scarce.

Cottages on the ruble? Not the deficit. Many objects offered for sale.

Luxury apartments? A lot of proposals.

the Gold? Also the queue does not stand.

The Shares Of "Gazprom"? Well, it's really just an option for optimists.

But masterpieces contrary to our expectations in the market and has not appeared in as-нибудь noticeable amount. It's-прежнему deficit. And not only in the local market, but at such monsters as Sotheby's and Christie's. You may recall that their auction from year to year, becoming weaker. Interesting work is becoming less, and will be even worse. And I do have something to think about.

But let us return to the consequences of the "haircut" deposits for art-рынка.

Well, the possibility of partial withdrawals of contributions until all of the words is denied. Too bad that she is seriously discussed.

in theory, the "haircut" may result in a temporary and very short-term spike in purchases of alternative assets, but generally no illusions. Any deterioration in any segment of the market (be it a "haircut" of deposits or new currency restrictions) will not benefit the field of alternative investments. From producing the situation with deposits benefit is that the owners of Bank vaults (and then, if banks with state participation type of savings), but thieves-домушники. Sudden movements in Finance generate among wealthy people uncertainty and fear. In such circumstances, goes the mood to buy that-либо in General and the art too. Moreover, when art-рынок also periodically "nightmare" passportization and the tax on luxury.

However, from their point of view, we see that for purchases in the future, now is the right time. In the first place for shopping unique things for normal money. These options need to catch. Why? The art of strong investment grade rates ceased to be inflated. In dollar terms these prices were probably 10-12 years ago. Sellers are adjusting to the realities, are at very significant discounts. Looking at statistics its own AI Auction, we can't help thinking that in a few years, most likely, will remember these figures, these pictures and bite your elbows. So those who are ready today to buy things of high quality and liquid with an eye to 5-7 years or so ahead, — are unlikely to regret it.

Vladimir Bogdanov, AI