"Russian July" at the auctions in London. The forecast prices from the AI
ARTinvestment.RU   19 ноября 2019

AI publishes opinions and predictions on the outcome of the struggle for the lots on "Russian bid" from 25 to 27 November 2019. Specialized auctions of Russian art in the Christie's, Sotheby's and Bonhams

this time in the list of top-лотов we meet a lot of repetition — things that have previously been exhibited at the Russian auction from two to five times. "Fourth time this horn persecuted by his Highness and his Highness, pardon the expression, smears and smears". But it came not on purpose, no one replays to review not picked up. Talking about the natural phenomenon that is the fundamental cause. The market seems to say: "Other writers I have not." Masterpieces — deficit, the auction holder is very limited. In addition, many paintings were bought 6-11 years ago and is already quite "adviceline" for resale. Another thing is that sell them have not the best times. Well, there's nothing you can do about it. Waiting for better market conditions can be as unknown. Exhibited at the prices that we have now. By the way, it is noticeable that the organizers stopped to flirt with the customers, to promise mountains of gold. Want to sell — sell at actual current prices. The last couple of years, everything is solved in a pragmatic way, without unnecessary expectations. And this in General gives hope that the results this time will be good.

Another point. The phrase "view AI" in the context of this review means the subjective position of the author on the "justifiable market" price, based on other indicative auction sales in our research database. Sometimes in the comments to the lots will slip opinion on "Moscow" price. Here we are talking about expectations for the price in case of sale of similar work at the Moscow auctions (as if we took a specific thing to AI Auction).

Estimate, for convenience, are translated from pounds to dollars at the current exchange rate: 1.29 us dollar for 1 pound.

Further we will go in chronological order.

25 Nov 2019. Christie's. Important Russian Art

Comment: 1917 in the yard, and Mademoiselle, all about your girlish. Already in the revolutionary devastation in the frozen areas of the Kazan school students Fechin loved to look at the "Manicure" your past carefree times. Wrapped in all that you can, rubbing in a mortar pigments (paint to take it anywhere), they studied the portrait as a sample art work of a teacher. Particularly impressive was their pink color on the canvas Feshin. Due with a virtuosic precision, it "revived" the portrait made him warm.

But why $2 000-3 000 570 860? Don't ask me. Prices on Feshin — is kind of Overton window in art. Unthinkable in the pre-crisis 2012-м three million dollars paid for "Portrait of Mademoiselle Podbelskaya" ($3 295 000), became normal after the sale, is conceptually similar to "Portrait of Nadezhda Sapozhnikova" in 2017 for $4 875 000. Generally, in order for an auction on top-лот not gone, you work hard. And this thing was brought to Moscow, showed actively promoted. Everything should be fine. However, the forecast AI — lower bound estimate: $2 700 000. I will add that, in General, to pay more for Feshin, if the purchase of the investment, has become quite risky. Too fast it has increased in price in recent years. Needsto be a limit.

Comment: "Dead", aka "the Pine forest" — working with rapid the auction fate. This is her fifth appearance at the auction. In database of auction results stores information that it was bought at Christie's in 1994. In 2012, resold for $1 412 000. Next came the miracles. In 2014 is a mark on sale at MacDougall's for $1 920 000, and in 2018-м the same MacDougall's puts picture with a minimum estimate of $1 080 000, i.e. twice lower and not selling. And here in November 2019 full circle. Shishkin again at Christie's. Evaluation is again reduced by a couple hundred thousand dollars. And now, I think, sell. For $950,000, for example. Reason — as many as four. Large size (Shishkin at the gallery market is not enough, but these great pictures are rare). The incipient recovery of prices Shishkin (price index of painting over the past year increased by 10 %). Finally, the prestigious platform and contagious example. Let me remind you that the neighbors Christie's in 2016, managed to sell Shishkin comparable size $2 015 000.

Comment: we reference Aivazovsky — collector's, investment, Museum, whatever. All of it. Optimal meter size. And the liquid plot. No drama, no casualties. There all so good. Evening peace. The sun sinks in the sea off the Italian volcanic Islands. And beautiful the ship flies over the waves at full sail. Aivazovsky wrote "Sunset over Ischia" in 56 years — Golden age for the artist. There is power, experience, and inspiration. Great job. And reasonable assessment. The minimum estimate of — $386 000. Before this I would ask $1 000 000. But now, I think, reach $500 000. You know, in the current market even half a million too much. But painfully, this is a good thing and not zasmotreny. For current directories, in which many paintings were exhibited two-три, and some are already four-пять times, the last factor is of particular importance.

Comment: the Picture is 30 years hung in American collections. In the late 1980-х "Woman with a candle" was bought by the first owner in new-йоркской Edward nakhamkin gallery specializing in "art in exile". It is moderately large (I mean picture), half a meter. For Tselkov optimally. Plot — without horror. Yes, brand identity is present, but where do without it. For and like. Rating — almost normal: $38 000 500-64. In Moscow would cost $45 000 plus-минус. But this picture got a weird one. Imagine, in one and the same day in the same city, on the next auction to be sold is exactly the same picture. The same "bonerowska" woman, same pose,the same candle. Even the size is the same. Compare for yourself: here one, but the other. All differences — expression of the "magnitude" pattern "backdrop", but the year of creation — 1987 and 1988. Well, the price: Christie's starts at $38 500 and MacDougall's — with $51 500. That's what it is? That phenomenon? Tselkov wrote two identical paintings? So I think now. Forecast for the version of 1987 — $50,000 or below. Although Tselkov can cost much more.

Comment: for Me it's particularly difficult. Plavinsky — is one of my favorite artists-шестидесятников. But I would strongly palter, saying that the auction things diverge in flight. No. Too many remain unsold. Even travelers venues. It is not clear. That's why, for example, in the summer at Christie's have not bought chic "the Composition with a bull's skin"? Estimate wasn't sky-high — from $25, 000. And that's on you. Evaluation of "the Ruins of the chapel" also starts from $25 700. And the chances of selling this thing over the last six months increased. In Moscow, New Tretyakov gallery, was held in the summer exhibit "Free flight", combined with the history and atmosphere of the films of Andrei Tarkovsky. Work Plavinsky formed in her exhibition in the exhibition. It was level! By the way, among the works at the exhibition were bought in London, too. So this time it could be-другому. Forecast for "the Ruins of the chapel" — $26 000. It's about a quarter more expensive "Moscow prices", but there's Londres oblige.

Comment: opener — is one of the favorite themes in the works Nemukhin. He returned to it at the end of life. It seemed to me that the can opener has been specially selected by the author a visual highlight in his lifetime retrospective in the Museum in 2015. As a symbol of Soviet life and specific social relations. Have Nemukhin is not only painting, but also small sculptures with opener. Remember, in Moscow. figurine 1993 height 21 cm was priced at $3800. And the catalogue included a rather large painting. From $6 500. Yes, and 1970. Why? Six years ago Christie's has exhibited her estimate from $11 000 — and failed. This time I decided to sell for sure. Moscow price for this Nemukhin — $7 000-8 000. Probably closer to this and sell. For $8000, for example.

Comment: "praise the Sun" Nicholas Roerich can be seen as the development or redesign it picture of the "Stone age", written 9 years earlier. Neolithic people survived the winter, joyfully welcome spring, catch the warm rays of the sun. Soon the entire Parking lot finally-то plunge into the atmosphere of celebration. In such moments, according to Roerich, peoplethere should be a need in the art. What money? Yes, until 2014 this Roerich could cost $2 500 000-3 500 000. In 2013, drove to the buyer so that "the Works of the mother of God" sold for more than $12 000 000. And on the humble Bonhams. But in 2013 there was a scandal with "Master-банком" the muffin Man, the government set the centre of the Roerichs, and the artist's market began to decline. With 2014 in the auction market was not a single millionika. $400 000 per feet — and not always successfully. The most expensive of sold out after crisis things — is, perhaps, tempera "White and heavenly", in 2015 departed from Christie's auction for $850,000. In short, the requested two million — the price is very risky. I'd bet on not sold. But it must be remembered that in the case of Roerich is all about the element of luck. It may happen that the buyer will come, who's right is "necessary". And then two or three million can't stop it. And even in Moscow it happens sometimes in all seriousness.

26 Nov 2019. Sotheby's. Russian Pictures

Comment: results at Sotheby's this time as many as five Aivazovsky. Cheapest — tiny size 15,5 x 25,5 — exposed with the lower estimate of $25 800. A "Solar Eclipse in Feodosia" on the contrary, the most expensive ($193 500-258 000) and the big canvas (more than a meter wide). Size, however, the advantages of the Eclipse and the end. Aivazovsky appreciated for its unmatched sea, the play of light on the incoming wave, moonlit path. Here the sea is almost invisible. Dark. Only Board moored sailing vessels are seen in the light of the fire. For everybody. However, Aivazovsky meter is still a meter Aivazovsky. With a more classic marine story like this could cost $600,000 and above. For example, in the summer at Sotheby's sailboat at sunset took over a half million dollars. There is, of course, highly overpaid. "Eclipse" is also on display with the conservative-заманчивой estimate of $193 500-258 000. I think the estimate will be exceeded and will reach $280 000. Why not 300? Because for $ 300 million (more precisely, with an estimate of $312 000-437 000) it exhibited at Sotheby's 3 years ago and not sold. However, since then, the situation on the Frontline has improved somewhat. According to our index, the price of paintings by Aivazovsky after a strong decline, started to grow again. And let me remind you that all interested in the works of Aivazovsky are free to look his pricing statistics to our database of auction results. A good reason to test the database operation and at the same time to understand why in this life we need indicators of investment risk.

Comment: Savrasov 1881 — is technically already begun, to be sure, "complex", the less valuable period in the work of the famous landscape painter-передвижника. But "elk island" in spite of everything surprisingly well elaborated foreground good sky. Of course, he's inferior masterpiece "elk island inSokolniki", written 12 years earlier, — winner of the exhibition of the Moscow society of lovers of the arts, with which the picture was immediately purchased by Pavel Tretyakov. But these now go find. And the General background, in a series of recent works, "elk island" definitely stands out in a good way. And size, and elaboration, and even the complete signature is good. Things happening in the soul of the artist gives a choice of textures — with dead pine on the edge of the picturesque sun. Elk island put up for auction at least a second time. Previous — at Christie's in "transition" 2014. Then the lower estimate was around $155, 000 and the lot has not reached the reserve. This time estimate, Sotheby's reduced by half. And probably thing will go at around $85 000.

Comment: This fall Polenov — is one of the most talked about artists in Moscow. The reason for that, of course, a powerful exhibition in the Tretyakov gallery. Well, the good spoon for dinner: prospects for the auction of the exhibition in the main Museum of the country — is a big plus. But its rapid auction biography rather in the negative. 10 years ago this "Barca" (then under the name of "Barge on the Oka") bought at Sotheby's for $272 000. In 2013, put there a little more expensive — failed. Then three more times at MacDougall's (the last time in 2018) — also failed. And here is a picture back again at Sotheby's with an estimate exactly as it was 10 years ago: £80 000-120 000, in current dollars — $103 200-154 800. And I think that is a participant of the XXVI exhibition of the Wanderers in 1889, despite the "samotnosci" will be successfully sold in the region of $120 000. And not only from-за blockbuster in the Tretyakov gallery. Polenov not so difficult to find in the gallery market, but auctions of this level and size at-прежнему rare.

Comment: This still life of Mikhail Larionov is now on the 29th-й line in our the highest auction results of Russian artists, assembled on the principle of "one artist — one painting". Last time, in 2007, it was sold at Sotheby's for a fabulous $4 464 000. Even then, at the peak of the market, it looked surprisingly expensive, twice the high estimate. We were talking about innovative luchitskii work, not about Fauvism, and on such a warm lamp in neo-primitivism. Well, OK. Even by itself, the status of the once most expensive paintings Larionov is also a lot in this case means. Thus, the still life with the old believer icon otvisetsya time and again at Sotheby's with an estimate of $1 000-2 000 548 322. Opinion AI: strong fight is not worth waiting, the forecast is more like $1 800 000.

Comment: With the price of everything here is just provided to convincingly prove the authenticity of it can be anyone within$10 000 000. Why? Yes do not get attached to anything. The mentor Malevich, and later turned into his follower, simply no reference to sales of art in General. Reference auction results eye no place to relax: anywhere red red bad indicators of investment risk.

it Is believed that "Spherical Suprematism" from the collection of Kostaki — only (!) abstract oil Clune preserved in private hands. The collector acquired it from a daughter kluna Seraphim in 1960-х years. Art historians suggest that this painting Klyun was shown at the first exhibition of OST in 1925. It is not only spectacular, but also important as an embodiment of theoretical constructions Clune, his idea that there is no color without light, etc. Article directory about this lot, wrote a famous and very authoritative expert on Russian avant-garde Alexander Shatskikh. Vanguard — the only direction in Russian art of the hunted collectors all over the world, and not only Russian. But he will, most likely, our. Maybe Sepherot or someone else. Bought in London work, even in the case of import to Russia, will fall under the ban on exports. This provides additional liquidity and investment in the city. I think, given that the price will reach $7 000 000. Maybe more. Given that Malevich is worth 86 million. In this case, "waving his sword" and throw money at the problem is not: Klyun all-таки not Malevich.

Comment: Nu Feshin — is one of the most memorable and not zasmotreny to the holes of the paintings of the November auction. Size it is only a little more. Although you never know. For the owner of a large collection Tesinska 27 × 67,5 — it may be, on the contrary, easy to use format. Work workshop, inspired. Especially valuable, doemigratsionny period (Feshin left in 1923). And of course, the model is good. The name is unknown. But Feshin wrote it many times, and actually, one of the drawings of the same model the team was able to date the picture, plus-минус 1919. I assume the negative, that is, before. In 1919 at Fechin already fell the hardships and misfortunes: the death of his father from typhus, tuberculosis, severe economic situation of the family. But this work light, it does not feel disappointment. Forecasts for the price? There can be any surprises. Prices for Feshin a few years has grown by leaps and bounds. His work often fell into the top of the the Return on the investment in works of Russian artists. Now, for example, in the ranking of repeat sales is on the second place pechinska "Girl". In 2000-м year this portrait was bought at Christie's for $96,000 in November 2018-го resold at Sotheby's for $777 000. Such embarrassment. Plus a successful exhibition and the effect of "second discovery" of forgotten during Soviet times, a powerful artist. But growth cannot go on forever. But rapid growth is generally a dangerous thing. Given these circumstances, a reasonable cost for "Reclining Nude" I see the figure of $600 000-650 000. But most likely, leave it for the sum of all-таки unreasonable. And this has already happened. In 2013, for naked mulatto size 61 × 51 (but much worse) onSotheby's has paid more than $2 000 000.

Comment: model artist medium size. Perfect for robust collections of the sixties. And initially it seems to be not expensive. For the canvas "Russian Morandi" the last few years at auction are fighting Igor Markin, Inna Bazhenova and some very well known collectors, many of which take an example. And in London Weisberg from year to year buys more than such works are in Russia. Long and difficult to explain phenomenon. But back to the "Geometric shapes". Auction: $38 000 500-64. In Moscow, within a reasonable time such a thing can be sold for $50,000. In London buy in the neighborhood of $80 000. You'll see.

Comment: Krasnopevtsev — decoration of any collection, not just collections of unofficial art. Specifically, this work is not in the catalog Alexander Ushakov, so the future buyer will have an independent additional research. On the view I personally do not bother. But you still need to consider that Krasnopevtsev — is the author which really made superpoddelki. For that price? Yeah, I remember that in the summer Krasnopevtsev comparable size went to rival Christie's for $55,000. But the year before, prices seemed to have rested in the psychological mark of $30 000. It is about the lower estimate sotbisovskogo still life. Forecast? I think it will be $35 000-40 000. This week the Russian special choice Krasnopevtseva no. If you desperately need at least two, you will have to fight. In Moscow this could be sold in two weeks at $30 000.

Comment: For connoisseurs of Ilya Glazunov at Sotheby's November just a holiday. Three metre canvas. All as on selection. With the main themes. Museum level. And the prices are even tempting, from $7000. What else do you need? The most difficult work for sale will be the "Prince Dimitri". Heavy plot. More for Museum, not for the home. The benchmark price — $8000 (estimé $6 400-9 000). About the money is similar (but not same) picture tried to sell in France in 2011. But in "Suzdal" and "Evdokia" problems with wanting to buy should not be. For "Suzdal" forecast — $10 000 (estimé $7 700-10 250). But the strongest struggle can be expected for the "Evdokia" — the image of the wife of Dmitry Donskoy, a monk of St. Euphrosyne of Moscow. This picture is from the cycle "Kulikovo field". Five years ago it was bought by the Finnish Bukowskis for $7 700. Now this is a lower estimate at Sotheby's. I think that care will be much higher — in the neighborhood of $15 000-20 000.

27 Nov 2019. Bonhams. The Russian Sale

Comment: Final vanitas from eminent of the sixties. Picturesque skull brushes Tselkov is accompanied by an interesting story. On the back of — name "still life", and then the PostScript "still life of the life of our Wife Yevtushenko". The composition is compact (37,5 × 42), blackout, contrast — of those that want to own. It would for the second time. The skull had exhibited this summer with an estimate of $38 000. Not sold. Now the rating is reduced to $32 000. Try blindly or probe the demand last time? Don't know, feels more correct price for this work is $25,000. Although I understand that for people buying Tselkova in London, 25, 32 — are all one. Let me remind that in the case with the Rubles you need to always be extra vigilant, at least to authentication for private channels. Not suggesting anything, but a rule is a rule.

Comment: in 1985, the meter on and the plot that configures a philosophical mood. Great picture. But initially overvalued by almost half. Sell unlikely. A comparable level of supply is at Christie's from $9000 (because for $12,000 and tried unsuccessfully). In Moscow, a benchmark for the work of Natalia Nesterova such class at public sale — 600,000 to 700,000 rubles. However for a good collector's item at times, overpaying is not a sin. And "the rape of the Sabine women" is one of those.

Comment: "the Trees on the water" for many years was in the collection of the artist's daughter, AI. Feshin, of course, especially strong in portraits and genre scenes. The scenery is not his strong point. But this is a nice and recognizable. And the price tag is not millions. And not even hundreds of thousands. This medium-sized painting already exhibited at Bonhams a year ago with a valuation of $129 000. Now decided not to risk and reduced the lower estimate to $77 of 100. I think this time it will sell. Where-нибудь in the middle, for $90 000.

Comment: "Cat" (and correct "Cat with bird" on the beloved story of Picasso) — is the biggest and the most expensive of the five paintings of Vladimir Yakovlev, exhibited at the November Bonhams. It is reported that in March 1996 she exhibited at the exhibition of Yakovlev's lifetime on Gogol Boulevard, 10. The story of the appearance of individual scenes (in particular, about where Yakovlev appeared at all the canvases and paint in the late 1990-х) index article reported the following. In 1995 Erik Baghdasaryan and Larisa Pyatnitskaya on time, took Yakovlev psychiatric boarding. Rented an apartment, boughtpaints and canvases. And in a short time the artist has written some very personal experiences with oils. One of them, by the way, was at the auction in Moscow in 2018. Prices Yakovlevskaya canvases of a small size at Bonhams start at $3870. A lower estimate of "Cats" — $12 850. No doubt, the painting Yakovlev, the more this story may be worth the money, even more expensive. Only here we have things of late, not the strongest, written 2 years before death. Ask me how many in Moscow would have taken to auction, say, in the neighborhood of $8000. There is about 12 000, so the forecast, alas, not sold.

It's not all interesting, but it's time to call it a day. In this time at Bonhams exhibited good, a compact and inexpensive Roerich, Goncharova with Larionov (nothing special), self-portrait by Zinaida Serebryakova. From the sixties, there are still small and expensive canvas Nikolai Kharitonov, the"Cloud" Ivan Chuikov (an interesting job at a decent price), tempera Igor Vulokh (too expensive), a gambling table Vladimir Nemukhin, a set of 14 figures Unknown, etc. From modern — cool Pepperstein and six-foot acrylic Oksana Mas. The prices for a rare exception or is too expensive or at the limit. And sometimes just in any gate. This is probably a kind of payback for the increase in the quality of the range of Russian art. In this sense, Bonhams is really considerably added.

About how predictions have come true, we'll know two weeks. Expectations moderately-позитивные.

And at the end of the — min of self-promotion. In fact for all lots you can estimate the price of independently. Benchmarks will be the results of previous sales of our the database of auction results. Pictures it is possible to watch freely. It is useful to see if there are suitable examples. But the prices and the list of re-sales can be viewed only by a paid subscription. The most affordable option, unlimited access for one day will cost 950 rubles. You can pay by card.

Buyers and sellers — luck at the auction. And the audience — exciting trade show.

Sources: artinvestment.ru, sothebys.com, christies.com, bonhams.com

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