Art-рынок Russia. The results of the-2016
ARTinvestment.RU   14 декабря 2016

The rating depends on what to compare. If 2015-м, the volume of sales in dollars increased by 43 %. Good, even impressive. But when compared to pre-crisis 2013-м, the sales volume in dollars fell by 69 %. So choose who you like more

the Year is not yet formally ended, the second half of December, their auction with painting and graphics will hold an auction "Russian enamel", "Russian enamel", "Nikita" and "Nikita". But the General situation is already clear, so you can safely withdraw the score.

Statistics of the auction of Russian art market

*the global turnover of Russian art, we include the results of the auction deals with the works of all artists orbit Russian art, who were born or have long lived and worked in the territory of the Russian Empire/USSR/Russia, including Mark Rothko, Chaim Soutine, Marc Chagall and Wassily Kandinsky. Source: artinvestment.ru.

**Preliminary figure does not take into account the results of the auction of the second half of December.

Plus 43% of the money — such growth of sales on the auction market in 2016 was a surprise to us. However, even when we see that there is interest, plus $2 million, we should not draw overly optimistic conclusions. The General economic situation over the year, much better not. Rather, these figures indicate that sellers have adjusted to the new difficult situation, along with the buyers recovered from the shock, divided dollar prices 2013 two or more and heal-новому. Well the truth is it's impossible to live in a nasty mood, the desire to buy one back. Even money from customers is not appreciably increased. Not that dollars and even rubles.

Speaking about the sales growth, we also need to make allowances for the fact that we are talking about growth with a minimum initial base. If really find out what is for the total market turnover from $4.6 million to $6.6 million? A very modest figure for 140-миллионной country: about 700 times less than the auction market in China. Yes there China! $6.6 million — is about one third of turnover alone autumn Russian trading Sotheby's. In General, the scale auction of Russian art market is that one sold painting Helium Korzheva for $340 000 and accounts for approximately 5% of its annual turnover. And if you add to it a single sale of paintings by Igor Grabar for $325,000, together with Korzhevin they make almost a tenth of annual turnover of the domestic auction market. That is, all of our auction market is equivalent to ten with ten Korzhevin Gramarye. It's just us to understand.

the Relatively small size of the market coupled with a restrictive cross-border trade legislation-прежнему securely "protecting" our market from foreign participants. None of the foreign auction houses are not conducted in Russia trading. Neither Sotheby's nor Christie's, no. Even Phillips, owned by Russian group Mercury, the auctions in Russia is not conducting. If previously this option was considered at least theoretically, in the light of the economic innovations you can forget about it. But the top-end auctions at least hold in Russia local office. But the world famous galleries (like Gagosian) none did not open site in Moscow. This was not done and in the fat times, and now there is no need to wait even more. Good or bad — is debatable. But one thing is clear: exactly the same rules that prevent foreigners to enter the Russian market, impede development and Russian market participants. But instead to use a good opportunity for growth (the art was in dollars cheaper), this chance is safely missed.

How a year has changed the location of auction houses ranking by turnover? The participants remained the same. And that's good, because in 2013 every year we lose soldiers (remember the auctions Leonid Shishkin Gallery, GOOD, "Magnum ARS", VEAD, etc.). However, all perennial leaders of traditional full-time (ie in the hall) bidding has reduced its activity. "Scoop" has reduced the number of auctions, and "the office" is spent in the past year only one special trade painting and moved to the end of the table. Hall as a format is slowly losing its attractiveness: traffic, time, Parking. Buyers on chairs, not much is added, and most of the bets on the traditional auction still comes remotely — on the phone and via the Internet.

Below we publish the rating of our auctions turnover in dollars in 2016. Note: this is only a segment FROM — painting, graphics, sculpture. Excluding books (which is in Russia a very powerful segment), without coins and PDI. For two years we do not publish exact numbers of revolutions, and the only place. At the request of participants and in General from the evil eye.

Rating auction houses, annual turnover in the segment OUT*

*the Ranking was made on the basis of prices in dollars.

What has changed compared to last year?

the three leaders remained the same. Moreover, the total "scoop", and our AI VLADEY Auction provided 72 % of the auction turnover in 2016. In fact, these three houses can be considered a major barometer in EVERY segment.

Within the first three occurred rotation. In 2016 from third to first place broke veteran market auction house "SOVKOM". It happened mainly due to the one of the phenomenally successful trades 20 Oct 2016. They remember many of the dolls piggy and stepashky. But the cash register "Scoops" made, of course, completely different things — Helium Korzheva, Ilya Mashkov, Sergei Gerasimov, Igor Tkachev brothers, Alexander Benois, and others. in short, some of thoseauction brought proceeds of about $1.7 million, or about 25 % of the annual turnover of the market. Against such a scrap, no one not found.

the Leader of last year, the auction house VLADEY also slightly increased its sales. Most of the box office they did the sixties, and the ultramodern art has provided good sales statistics. In particular, at the end of the year Vladimir Ovcharenko held an auction with the result of that in overseas countries, it is customary to give white gloves: the organizer has sold 100% of auction catalog of budget format "by 100".

AI Our Auction closes this time the top three in terms of turnover. Figures in dollars remained at the same level as last year, with growth of 10 %. During the year we closed almost 50 auctions on 20 lots, with an average sales of 60 % — above the market average. Like last year, we are the only in Russia to hold the auctions every week, with no breaks for summer and other holidays. Thus, all the processes occurring in the market, we observed in the dynamics: not only as an analytical organization, but also as a trading business. And traditionally share their observations.

for Example, we noticed in the structure of demand at the end of 2016?

1. Prices is almost entirely under the control of people with money in their hands. Art-рынок 2016-го was definitely a buyer's market. There are exceptions when people have a serious budget, but I can't find what you need. But this is rare. In my practice we see that the vast majority of cases, sellers are forced to move towards the customers, with wide tread.

2. Bestsellers the auction market in the segment remained FROM the works of the sixties (and wider — informal post-war Russian art) at a cost of up to 500,000 rubles, and the work of contemporary artists strong level in the range of 100 000 rubles. in addition, increased interest was observed in the finished works of the first names in all directions. The growing interest in the sixties confirmed the November "Russian auction" Sotheby's, which collection Bar-Гера Russian sold out at prices significantly exceeding market levels.

3. Worst of all were sold sketches, any unfinished work regardless of name. The low demand for works of XIX century (with the exception of first names), as well as the socialist realism of the middle level. The demand for the work of many contemporary artists encountered resistance already at 30 000-50 000 rubles. and was very price elastic.

4. Liquidity became the factor number 2 influencing the buying decision. Previously, because few people thought, whether he in the event that quickly resell his purchase, at least at a lower price. And now many customers, keep that in mind. Factor good liquidity in the next three years is firmly supplanted in the minds of buyers waiting for a quick investment return. Well number one for the majority of our buyers has now become the most irrational emotional factor: more people are buying because "like, what to think about anything else can't."

5. At auctions were more likely than last year to deliver work of the highest level. This may mean at least something to wait for better times, many owners no strength left — this time. Situation on several fronts(for example, Russian classics of the XIX century) continues to deteriorate — is two. The time horizon of economic revival for people who do not clear — is three. The current crisis is how much — for 3 years or 10 years? Nobody knows. And even Aivazovsky at auction in London for the last five years fell three times already. In our domestic market the same vector. Not getting any better. Sell the classics at the end of 2016 for the same money it was more difficult than in the beginning of the year.

6. Significantly increased the tractability of sellers, their willingness to compromise. The process of understanding reality were developed long ago, but especially clearly manifested in 2016. It's one thing to read abstract optimistic about the market growth, and another thing to be the way of the sale of a particular thing. No, clearly, the suppliers have become more sober assessment of the situation. We associate this with the fact that software system online-торгов allows the owner to see the specifics of the demand: how many people have seen lot many people for him traded and to what prices. The situation is quite transparent and offers sound solutions.

7. Already in mid-2016 intensified dealers — began to buy. They do not get involved in an aggressive fight. Only buy at very good prices. And not for a particular client, and for the future. Their actions can be interpreted as a good sign: it professionals predict that further deterioration and a substantial fall in prices, rather, will be gone. So now they put that time to buy it. Because it was before: approximately six months after the start of growth in consumer activity began to grow and prices.

What's the most expensive paintings were sold at auctions in Russia in 2016? Here, too difficult to resist comparisons, as it turns out now, prosperous 2013. Let me remind you that record on the market set tempera by Konstantin Yuon "Market square in Uglich". The line on the "Russian enamel" for it paid almost $2 million (76 million rbl.). And in 2016, the most expensive work was sold to "Sovkome". This is the already mentioned "Shelf" Helium Korzheva, the price for which the October auction came to $340 000. In second place — painting by Igor Grabar "for-реку" March "Sovkoma" for $325,000. And the third — work of Ilya Kabakov "Boy", sold at VLADEY for $217 780 converted from euros. Let the money all three of the top-лота in the amount not reach to the half of pre-crisis Yuon, but today these prices are very impressive for the domestic market. In 2016 to find a buyer for the painting more than $100 000 was already a highly ambitious task. And $300 000 and does have a sufficient budget for a good Aivazovsky overpayment at Sotheby's.

the Most expensive works of Russian auction market

the Attentive reader will say: but what you only the auctions overlap? There is also a gallery and dealer business, where periodically undergo a non-public transaction for $200 000-500 000 (about $1 million we don't evenstutter, because the existence of such transactions on the domestic market today is questionable). Naturally, this market is. He feels too tired. As for the assessment of its size, the rule of thumb is that the sale of auctions multiply by 4. It is in a healthy situation. And the situation is unhealthy. So I would have to assess in 2016 multiplied, not 4 on 3. And thus, the sales of the art-рынка Russia by the end of 2016 can be cautiously estimated at $20-25 million For comparison, this is about 15 times less than the annual market of sports betting in our country.

in short, with galleries or without, in any case, it remains to say that in 2016 the art-рынок Russia remained extremely small. Or, as optimists would say, remains a market with great untapped potential. This is partly true. How true, however, that help with the disclosure of this potential Russian participants of the market no one is going. In particular, in 2016, officials under the guise of Patriotic rhetoric (a favorite topic which — protection of cultural heritage), continued to introduce new complexity of the procedure of export permitted to export painting, worsened business conditions and caused negative economic consequences for the entire market. To the extent that this year our first issue of foreign bidders was not "How do you do?" and "See that you make bets, how do you plan to take won lot?". And it is also possible to write to the end of the year with a big minus sign.

And what to record for the year with a plus sign? In addition, of course, that all major market players have managed this year to survive. According to AI, while the main positive of the year — is small, but all-таки the growth of consumer activity. This thing is more reliable all other things. In the end, the market growth in the money — is the result of some expensive piece of sales (conditional korzhevich, grabara and Kabakov). But the increase in the share of lots sold and an increase in the number of collectors — is already fundamental. This was largely a result of falling prices. This year we saw the devaluation attracted to the auctions of the people who were previously unable to approach good art. There are new collectors. More importantly, there are new buyers from regions (which are all comfortable) and-за abroad (which are all uncomfortable). Database of customers is gradually expanding and this is a factor in long-term reliability of the business. Further prices can grow and fall, but people, a taste for art, will still be buyers. So in 2017 we look with moderate optimism. And the rest I will dispense with detailed prophecies. Are we, five years ago already wrote a forecast, about how was going to meet a 2017 — now to re-read his funny and sad. Now we hope conservative, at least for some-то growth, albeit slow. And if you don't fly a-нибудь another economic meteorite, all of that until goes.

Vladimir Bogdanov, AI