Find a masterpiece at a flea market: "secret technology" or "survivorship bias"?
ARTinvestment.RU   13 июня 2019

Buy for five dollars and sell it for a million. A passionate desire to pull a lottery ticket pursues many inexperienced buyers. Don't piss me with your books Yes, museums! Answer simple: how to buy a masterpiece at a flea market?

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the Typical subjects, labels, tags and stamps shoddy fakes of mass destruction. The same gang

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a Real and not uncommon question asked by newcomers: "Like a flea market to understand that before you-то worthwhile?". Eyes and burn.

, And these people can understand, because news sites almost every week to give them a wonderful recipe for success:

• "the Heirs found in the "rubble" chess piece for a million pounds";
• "American bought at a flea market, a genuine work of Renoir";
• "At a flea market found an engraving of dürer";
• "the Mechanic bought online Renoir for $ 700";
• ""Leonardo 45 pounds" sold for $450 312 500".

There is something head go round and round.

After each such publication the sellers of flea markets, owners of small Western European antique shops and small American auctionitem should uncork a bottle of champagne. News in the style of "bought for $ 10 that costs 10 000" ensure that the flow of gullible customers hunting for the "easy money", do not run out.

But the problem is that with a few stories of wonderful success paid a huge number of small tragedies and big disappointments. As you type headers and such?

• "pattern, attributed to Repin purchased from St. Petersburg in the Finnish antique store, turned out to be fake";
• "The Muscovite could not return to the U.S. the auction is a fake picture Malyavina as expired warranty";
• "Ancient icon, bought at an antique fair, was worthless gift "remakes"";
• "The picture of Ivan kljuna bought Nizhni Novgorod, has proved low-grade "Chernihiv" falshakom";
• "Bought at auction on the cheap masterpiece was the attempt to legalize stolen";
• "The Muscovite almost bought a fake Gauguin and Cezanne for a million dollars";
• "Condemned artists sold fake Malevich and Goncharova."

the Boring and mundane. Press such cases are of little interest. And the victims are not in a hurry to share information about perfect nonsense. About these stories rarely write, but, alas, the expense of them goes to the hundreds and thousands.

One explanation of the phenomenon of the threat of consumer behavior — is the famous "survivorship bias". In order not to send someone-то in Wikipedia, let me remind you that we are talking about gross distortion of the findings for the reason that we are usually judged by the information successfully (from a survivor), but are missing critical information about the dangers that could give "lost". The "survivorship bias" got its name after research damaged by American bombers during the Second world war. Mathematician Abraham Wald was asked to analyze the statistics of the damage returned from-под of attack of the aircraft and to solve the problem, what are the places of fuselages need a stronger book. His conclusion was for manyunexpected. You need to book are not those areas where the returning planes had the most holes, and not just those where it is not had serious hits. Because existing damage to the wings and fuselage of the aircraft survived and returned to base, the damage is not critical. But on the contrary, those planes that got hit in the engines, cockpit and fuel tanks, did not return to the airfield and therefore were not able to give scientists valuable information about the statistics of hits and the causes of death. One of the surviving bugs — is a history of successful businesses. One great success has dozens, maybe hundreds of cases of companies working on the same principles as that of lucky. Therefore, it is dangerous to try to copy the success patterns of the "survivors", ignoring the reasons for the failure of "the dead".

In art-бизнесе and collecting works on the same principle. Novice collector (Yes, any inexperienced buyer of art) it is better not to savor other people's success stories, and in advance to cover extra armor critical vulnerability.

How to do it? There is a minimum:

1. Listen to all opinions, but to increase their own knowledge and nasmotrennost. I understand that this road is long, but the most reliable. However here too it is necessary to know the measure. It is really a "bookworm" who knows everything but does not buy anything, the sellers will cease to be taken seriously. This will not make interesting suggestions — in particular, offer a rare thing. That is, periodically buy — need. And where?

2. To make purchases in places that you trust. If the money is not a lot @the mdas is a first class auctions "Sotbis and Kristie". If you buy in Russia, it is conventionally galleries VIP-зоны Antique shops, as well as regular auctions where the check examination. As our AI Auction, for example.

3. To avoid food from "group of risk". I refer to them sites public notice, where they sell everything from kittens to pictures. There also relates a little-known galleries, fairs and antique shops. This is the place for connoisseurs. If someone-то strongly believe that Europe and the United States all that much better, then, alas, disappoint. One of the most dangerous places in the sense of fakes of Russian art — is just small online-аукционы USA and Europe. And antique shops on the tourist routes. Sometimes it's just a real trap for newcomers from Russia. The neophytes think they are the most intelligent, the Internet is always cheaper, just search Russian paintings abroad anyone from old-fashioned dealers haven't come to mind. Here such-то there waiting with open arms. Doubters even offer a guarantee, say for a month. This gives buyers a mistaken sense of security. In fact, to meet this deadline, to make the examination, have time to organize the import of-вывоз and to settle all formalities it is almost not real. So "a month of warranty" can be considered a fiction.

4. When in doubt, to abandon the purchase. Not the last chance. It is still a possibility. And more than once.

a Separate branch disease "treasure hunting" is unqualified buying unknown artists, or artists early in his career, in the calculation of the astronomical rise in prices. Chance, of course. However, it is so small that it is better to go and look for cheapRepin in Finnish shops. But is it possible to convince than-то people who read, like a Basquiat painting bought in 1984 for $19 000 and resold in 2019 at Sotheby's for $110,5 million? Explain that this is a unique case that the artist was not "early career", and was supported by the most influential galleries in new-Йорка? When after 33 years the price increased 5 815 times, no exhortations, explanations, and calls for caution will not stop a potential "treasure hunters". But if any one-то once again to think about, and that's good.

What else to read on the topic on AI:
Fakes of mass destruction;
Careful of the fake paintings!



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