Back to the future. As "not fulfilled" our predictions 2008
ARTinvestment.RU   26 ноября 2015

It was hearty 2008. And the question on the forum AI was formulated fearlessly: "How to invest 100 000$"

Recently participants forum AI recalled our predictions — assumptions about investment prospects, which we did shortly after the launch of the site ARTinvestment.RU. It was hearty 2008. And the question on the forum was formulated fearlessly: "How to invest 100 000$".

Talk then well. Sketched ideas in what artists to invest. Even ventured to build a "portfolio" — set of works of promising artists, which at that time could be bought for $100,000 dollars.

Recall, "portfolio" then I turned out next:

1. 0,6 the picture Dmitry Krasnopevtseva;
2. 1-1,5 pattern Oleg Tselkov;
3. 1.5 to 2 pattern Vladimir Nemukhin;
4. Pictures of 1.5 Dmitry Plavinsky;
5. 1-1,5 Vladimir Yankilevsky;
6. 1,3 paintings Eugene Rukhin;
7. 2 excellent oil Vladimir Yakovlev;
8. 2.5 Natalia Nesterova.

I said, "what you say, — reasonable. But is there hope for surplus income? Krasnopevtsev is now $200 000-300 000. Or Tselkov — is $150,000. There is a possibility that will be doubled? Although I write and think to myself: Yes, there is. But for 100,000 buy now. But, for example, Tabenkin slepysheva — can".

And at this moment the caution cheated on me, cheeks puffed up, and my part was followed by clarifying the prognosis: "barring disasters, the best work of the sixties, which today can still be bought for 100 thousand, in the next 2-2. 5 years have the chance to reach a million. IMHO. But if oil reaches $200 per barrel (and such forecasts give a very serious Agency), if not sooner. There, million, posoprotivlyayutsya and moves on. For Tabenkin slepysheva and these rates seem to me much less probable — they are not so tightly involved in the information environment. The second row artists more risky for investment, but also because more potentially profitable. I think that very soon there will be another problem — is a very strong shortage of the sixties in General, which will be the basis for undue inflation of prices". This, remember, is also the summer of 2008.

Since then much water has flowed under the bridge.

But the people we were retentive — finger in your mouth not put. Remembered. And seven years later we are "caught up" question: "like me post from 2008 about oil 200))) picture-то were worth a million?))"

Ask — are responsible.

the Oil was worth 3.5 times cheaper. And listed a set of paintings has fallen nearly in the same proportion. Now, on their acquisition collectors do not have enough $100 000, and $25 000–$35 000.

Sad. Another question: is it worth bragging?

Seven years ago, in June 2008, even Nostradamus would not be able to nangawat that lie ahead are as much as two economic crisis (2008 and 2014), as many as three foreign policy crisis (Crimea, Donbass, Syria), international economic sanctions, in November 2015, oil will be $ 43 instead of 140 dollars, and the dollar will cost 66 rubles instead of 23 rubles.

Rates and forecasts — is a good reason to smile at his old optimism and to draw conclusions about the unpredictability of life.

the Numbers were not guessed, but the very essence of the forecast on-прежнему not ashamed. What can you blame?

1. Is the first names of the sixties was a false direction? Had revised their place in the history of art? The cost of their work — wasted money? Other areas showed the best results? No. Therefore, called the vector was correct.

2. Is among those listed in "portfolio" 2008 artists there ever was one, the prices which fell to near zero or fell much stronger than the market? No.

3. Is there almost in 2015, more liquid segment of the market than the sixties? The works of artists which are easier to sell at auction than non-conformists? The crisis is an opportunity if something happens quickly sell for at least what-то money becomes especially important. Therefore, for the Council the no longer ashamed.

4. Except today there is no shortage of masterpieces of post-war non-art, as was predicted? And in those, non-crisis, times, remind, things of high class were normally available on the market.

What else to add? Mentioned about Ilya Tabenkin nothing special I can not say, but with respect to Anatoly slepysheva have something to brag about. Our AI Auction was the auction number 1 in the world in the number of sold works of this sixties. Two years of work slepysheva became hits our auctions, proving their remarkable liquidity. Further, judge for yourself: we guessed right then or not.

in fact, if there was a chance that-то be changed retroactively in the list, then I don't remove — on the contrary, some-кого would add. Namely: Erik Bulatov, Ilya Kabakov, Oscar Rabin valuable time and quality Anatoly Zverev. But only if then, 2008-м were unable to buy nice things relatively inexpensively. What else would advise with hindsight in 2008? Do not overpay for Russian classics. If contact only with the first names. In the first place after authentication to raise liquidity. And indeed in General to be critical and cautious.

Yes, life was unpredictable. But I think that the people who bought the art in accordance with our expectations, not bankrupt, not upset, have received aesthetic pleasure, what-то learned, adjusted the priorities that-то sold, and what-то bought.

Well, the numbers... the Numbers — can be acquired. Fell? Will grow back. The pre-crisis level — is unlikely or very soon. But, fortunately, even in the art of the tactical investment pause is usually compensated for emotional, informational, and aesthetic win.

Vladimir Bogdanov, AI