Айвазовский И.К.
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Маковский А.В.
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Кончаловский П.П.
Фальк Р.Р.
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The indicator of confidence in the market for contemporary art Tactic. Part 2
ARTinvestment.RU   28 мая 2020

Continued analysis of the report on the first half of art-рынка during a pandemic

In the first part of the report is ArtTactic, which AI was dismantled here, the British analytical company focused on the trust of professional art-рынка present and future trade relations with art. In the second part we will focus on individual artists, as well as summarising the results of the study.

the Indicator of confidence in the artists ' market in the short term (6 months)

the confidence Indicator professionals to certain contemporary artists in the short term, compared to the previous year, shows a decrease in average by 48 %. In particular, in the segment of established artists he fell from 68 in September 2019 up to 35 in may 2020. Trust in all persons involved in the rating, except for one — Gerhard Richter — declined, that speaks about the serious impact of the crisis on the market in the next six months. Top-5 recognized contemporary artists for the confidence rating, in addition to Richter, also included John Baldessari, George Condo, Sigmar Polke and Cecily brown.

similarly decreased and the average confidence indicator for the segment of young artists: from 72 in September 2019 to 41 in may 2020. The only artist to market which experts did not lose confidence in a crisis, — Rashid Johnson. Alongside him, top-5 young artists with emerging careers entered by Lynette Yiadom-Боакье, Dana Schutz, of the Nidek Akunyili Crosby and Jonas wood.

For a better understanding of the balance of power in the primary market of the art of AI added in the table of the gallery behind the promotion of an artist.

table 1. The indicator of confidence of respondents ArtTactic market recognized and emerging artists in the next 6 months

Recognised artists Young artists
Artist the confidence Indicator (0-100) the Main gallery is representing the artist the Artist the confidence Indicator (0-100) , the Main gallery representing the artist
Gerhard Richter 86 Marian Goodman Rashid Johnson 84 Hauser & Wirth
John Baldessari 71 Marian Goodman Lynette Yadom-Боакье 82 Jack Shainman
George Condo 71 Skarstedt Dana Schutz 70 Contemporary Fine Arts (CFA)
Sigmar Polke 71 David Zwirner The Nidek Akunyili Crosby 70 David Zwirner
Cecily Brown 70 Gagosian Jonas Wood 68 Gagosian
Mark Bradford 69 Hauser & Wirth Julie Mehretu 67 Marian Goodman
Peter Doig 65 Michael Werner Harold Ankart 64 David Zwirner
Anselm Kiefer 61 Gagosian Adrian Geni 56 Pace
Cindy Sherman 60 Skarstedt Brent Wadden 50 Pace
Maurizio Cattelan 56 Marian Goodman sterling ruby 44 Gagosian

the Indicator of confidence in the artists ' market in the long term (10 years)

In November 2009, in the midst of a financial crisis ArtTactic for the first time introduced the "indicator of longevity" artists — forecast professionals of the art market for contemporary artists, 10-летней term. The purpose of thisindicator was to study the experts (recall, they made 125 of elected functionaries and insiders: collectors, auction houses, galleries and private dealers, art-консультантов, analysts and other professionals of art-рынка) on the question of who of the artists will be able to survive the crisis. In 2009 the highest advances in the descending order, was issued to Gerhard Richter, Cindy Sherman, Jeff Koons, Robert Gober and bill viola. Today, 11 years later, the first two names in the rankings — Richter and Sherman — in a new poll remained unchanged, and added to them, Sigmar Polke, John Baldessari and Anselm Kiefer.

table 2. The comparison of the forecasts issued by the respondents in respect of ArtTactic, the most successful contemporary artists in the next 10 years, 2009/2020

the Forecast, issued in 2009 the Forecast issued in 2020
Artist the confidence Indicator (0-100) the Main gallery is representing the artist the Artist the confidence Indicator (0-100) , the Main gallery representing the artist
Gerhard Richter 92 Marian Goodman Gerhard Richter 85 Marian Goodman
Cindy Sherman 86 Skarstedt Cindy Sherman 77 Skarstedt
Jeff Koons 84 Gagosian Sigmar Polke 74 David Zwirner
Robert Gober 80 Matthew Marks John Baldessari 70 Marian Goodman
Bill Viola 79 James Cohan Anselm Kiefer 64 Gagosian
Richard Prince 73 Gagosian William Kentridge 64 Marian Goodman
Peter Doig 70 Michael Werner He Kawara 60 David Zwirner
Gilbert and George 70 White Cube Maurizio Cattelan 58 Marian Goodman
John Baldessari 69 Marian Goodman Jeff Koons 57 Gagosian
Takashi Murakami 60 Gagosian Andreas Gursky 56 Gagosian

Summarizing the data from both tables, it can be limited to one sentence: in the rivalry between the dealers, Marian Goodman ('92) and Larry Gagosian (75) score 9:8 in favour of the former. Goodman, known for quality scouting the European market (which the gallery has opened the United States market, Gerhard Richter and Joseph Beuys), continues to create new names from European natives and migrants. After Marion Goodman Gallery European presence began to expand and Gagosian, and David Zwirner (from 2019). The rest of the gallery — representatives of artists beyond the boundaries of the conditional-100 of the world's market regulators, and half of these institutions is firmly in the top-10 in terms of sales in the last 10 years. As for the difference between projections 2009 and 2020 the prospects of contemporary artists, we will note the disappearance of the first "tens" Takashi Murakami and the decrease in ranking position of Jeff Koons — favorites of the past decade. That the position of Gerhard Richter is explained simply: the owners understand that his market has growth potential and is therefore not in a hurry to leave today with the best works 88-летнего artist. But the phenomenon of the strength of Cindy Sherman in the second position (by the way, the only author in the rating is mainly working inphotos) — reason for careful study: Skarstedt gallery, presenting author, last year also signed a contract with the KAWS and after London took over the US market. Strengthened their positions John Baldessari and Anselm Kiefer, in recent years, had for two almost more institutional exhibitions than any other pair from the list. In other words, the random artists at the top art-рынок, as before, will not be allowed — and here at the galleries of the middle class to get into a host of leading chances.

In conclusion, the report Contemporary Art Market analysts ArtTactic Confidence Report highlighted the main issues of the global art-рынка that the experts of the survey see future 12 months, and opportunities for overcoming them.

Problems in the art market during the crisis:

• a Serious economic recession, the pandemic will cause a decline in the purchasing power on the global market;

• Lack of visibility will likely lead to a rethinking and adjustment of pricing, as prices for contemporary art until the quarantine is mainly determined by large institutional and commercial exhibitions auction and fixed prices, that is, factors that are difficult to navigate in the current environment;

• to Pay big money for art, when people still die from coronavirus, and the business is struggling for survival, — socially unacceptable. This can slow down the activity of collectors, making acquisitions to raise the social status of;

• the Potential restriction on foreign travel and psychologically, negative attitudes to travel will change the nature of the global art-рынка. This casts doubt on the viability of many modern business-моделей — such as the international art-ярмарки and auction weeks tied to certain locations. The transition to a more "local" models, supplemented by the increased presence of the Internet may become the new norm of the art [email protected] semicolon

• "the Current crisis — is the last straw that breaks the camel's back" — described the current state of the art-рынка unnamed Respondent to the survey. Followed by a significant proportion of respondents also fear that the current crisis will lead to a sharp drop in the price dynamics of the many contemporary artists that the speculative increased in the last decade;

• Quarantine has led to an unprecedented rise in the volume of digital and online-контента, which has led many experts to wonder about its quality. The phenomenon of "Internet-усталости" is accompanied by a very real threat today to the vision of most active users;

• One of the key problems of the market — attracting new customers — remained unchanged today. However, it added an important question that retailers need to answer: how to convince young collectors that now is the time to begin to buy or invest in art?

Opportunities in the art market during the crisis

1. Rethinking business-моделей.

Current crisis, combined with the pandemic, revealed the vulnerability of the modern art market, so it needs a new business-модели. The owners of the art-компаний should ask yourself the followingquestions:

— How sustainable their dependence on some physical events (art-ярмарок and auctions)?

— do they Need to rethink the concept of the gallery as a fixed space?

— whether cost gallery to maintain a fixed space in the future?

— Which other forms of career development and artist performance can occur on the background of the crisis?

2. Online-продажи.

the Creation of virtual spaces can provide more-менее equal conditions for the galleries of the primary market (from dealers of the highest echelon to the young) and to weaken the monopoly of the major sellers on the upper level.

3. The transition from short-term investments long-term investments.

Short-term (speculative) investment in the work of artists with an aggressive marketing campaign will disappear, and collectors will be able to choose from those authors whose work they really like and not follow the market games. Investors in long-term projects will have the opportunity to choose the really valuable art at attractive prices and with a potentially big discount. Investing in art will come back into fashion — however with a stronger emphasis on the artistic value of the artist that economic recovery will be supported by the market value.

Review AI: not without pride say that the report is ArtTactic has confirmed our thesis, stated in the about investments in art in the period of crisis and development sector online-продаж: the market for contemporary artists with an aggressive (read: speculative) marketing strategy less likely to survive any crisis, and their work — become the object of investments, based on information and not emotions.

Young, gallery online-платформы undoubtedly first encounter the Internet-пространство large galleries, however, they may receive unexpected support for collectors looking for new names.

Rethinking art-ценообразования primarily will come from the "demand" — from the collector. Today, with on the wall a conditional Basquiat and a number of unknown young artist, he sees that the Basque do not "work": museums are closed, the auction houses do not give fresh pricing information, and personal or online-общение with the artist in the social environment is impossible. At the same time, the prominence of the active young artists, making the most of the isolation mode and virtual presence, it increases day by day — and after increasing the value of their work. And even if today the works of emerging cost thousands or tens of thousands of US dollars — by the end of the quarantine they can rise in price twice. And positive price dynamics on Basquiat work ensure is that the time factor. The paradox lies in the fact that the young contemporary collector with inclinations of the investor dynamics of the young artist may seem more attractive. One question remains: how is he gonna see this momentum, if the transition in sales online-сегмент will not lead to transparency of price information, and make the market even more closed?

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