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Crisis-2020. What to expect the Russian art market
ARTinvestment.RU   10 сентября 2019

Problems of the Russian economy (mainly man-made) risk to worsen soon. Experts expect a new crisis – world. Last, after which we never recovered, broke out about 10 years ago. And there is an opinion that can repeat

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In 2020-м year, economists expect another economic crisis. A trade war with China could bring down the commodity prices. What if again the oil at 40 and 70 dollar? How will this affect the Russian market of art? About it – in a new article on Photo - here: #art-рынок #Analytics #forecast #crisis #economy #кризис2020

the Publication of artconspectus (@artconspectus)


Where to wait for trouble uninvited understand about. Main attention is drawn today to a trade war between the US and China. The sharing of duties and prohibitions will trigger a drop in production in China, reducing demand for raw materials and the fall in world oil prices. However, even without the head-butting world ends 2019 with a pile of political economy problems: worrying overvaluation of us stocks (again), the uncertainty of Brexit, a slowdown in business activity in Europe. Clearly, the clouds are gathering. Here-вот have to break out the thunder. The only question is when.

Unfortunately, the main suspicions fall on 2020-й.

And it is not only on the level of feelings. The complexity of the coming year not so long ago already hinted in his the forecast of the world Bank. Expectations Russian rating the Agency's ACRES for 2020 is also not so good: Urals crude at $53, and the dollar – 73,8 ruble. In ACRE, by the way, scares us more and soon mortgage crisis in, similar to the notorious American. And that the wise of economic development? There is also cautiously looking to the future. In conservative projection of the Ministry of the dollar by 2020-му can be $ 69, and oil - 42.5 dollars per barrel. So, if we take a circle, then in detail there are discrepancies, but in the main the opinions of experts converge.

recall that in early September, 2019 Urals was quoted near $54, Brent was worth $62 per barrel and exchange rate of the dollar was around 66 rubles.

So that the oil at 40 and 70 dollar above – the real reason for a lot of people worried.

But no wonder the issues of our economic development is entrusted to people not timid.

"...we'll do 40, - already stopped all the whining Maxim Oreshkin - Although, of course, better than 60 — is the optimal price... $ 60 per barrel — a level that allows us to invest in new projects to develop them. At 40 dollars it will be more difficult to do, but even at this price we will not experience serious pressure on the financial market and domestic economy from the point of view of the budget, balance of payments".

Nerves like rope.

However, because of the brave "we'll do it on 40" and "we will face serious pressure" not authentically understand who is the "we" and who is "us"? Maybe the Martians? The government? World behind the scenes? NATO militarists? Well, who else then? Around cause no matter who you ask, this situation does not suit anyone.

But back to the probable consequences of a new crisis for the national art market.

That a new situation will mean for the owners of the paintings?

To start a natural wayresolved a long-standing dilemma that many torments for more than 10 years. Whether to sell the paintings at current prices or wait when prices grow? We at auction continue to ask. And dialogues like Chichikov with a Box: "... you May be my father, deceived me, and they... they're more like-нибудь are better... well, I manenko wait, maybe plenty of merchants, but will apply to prices...". the Imposition of the global economic crisis on the domestic would mean that "manenko wait" - this is 6-8 years possible ruin. And maybe more. The ruble will fall. While ruble prices on paintings will not grow (it is in all its glory demonstrated 2014-й year). If the crisis is strong and prolonged, even the ruble prices will fall. For example, what previously cost 300 000 rubles ($4 545 in the course of 66) within a reasonable time can be sold only for 250 000 roubles ($3 425). That is not even God knows which way the pattern correction of ruble prices and a 10% drop rate give or take a thousand dollars.
in short, if you need to sell, to pull makes no sense. Let me remind you that the experience of the crisis to a lesser extent prone to fall in the price of the finished product first names of Russian classics. The best things famous authors, as a rule, better protected from falling prices. But this does not mean that the situation does not concern them.

What are the consequences of the crisis for buyers of art?

it would Seem, buyers need only to win. The prices are falling. Plus there is a growing class of things in the market. Some are forced to sell the collection, which before would not have broken up. So the market regularly rarities, which were previously kept until better times. Buy, and be happy. And in General all the way. Except that a couple of moments. First - people usually do not spend pictures money from savings. They are more willing to buy when there is a serious incoming income. When the cash flow decreases (and in the crisis many are), then spending on the arts start to reduce almost in the first place. That is, if you think of the collector as the owner of untold wealth out of the business in cache and the remaining to live in Russia, then Yes – he has more opportunities to increase his collection. But most one way or another, the crisis will pull.
There is a second time. As the deterioration of the situation with the finances of the state will increasingly look for new sources of tax or other revenues. There is a risk that it will begin to acquire various grotesque forms of a type of luxury tax for owners of art. Too suspicious of the authorities are pushing the transfer of data about sellers and buyers of art and discuss the idea of a certification deals with art. The conclusion is clear – to try smaller lights clearance of transactions and to buy in checked places.

What is fraught with a new round of economic downturn for the Russian art-бизнеса?

Just do not about the purificatory function of the crisis. Believe in it primarily those who are in the business never worked. Those who didn't fire forced the best employees, who extra not folded initiated promising projects. All these stories about "crisis and opportunity", "die ineffective, and effective Vice versa get the chance to" - gorlopanstvo or, at best, options "error survivors." In reality, we see that new opportunities after five years of crisis we have got mainly the state banks and state corporations. Examples of efficiency – who would doubt. And about small business, to which the majority of participants of the Russian art market, and say nothing. For him, the crisis will mean a killer saving on the whole, the collapse triggered commands, deterioration of the quality of work with clients, as well as the freezing of projects requiring investment. And if only that. Contrary to the speeches of the first persons and all common sense in a crisis of art-бизнесу expect the gain of extortion, pressure from government bodies and their voluntary assistants. Actually, it's not even a question of the future. It's already started. Auction houses, galleries, informational sites, hosts Museum exhibitions and even the owners of public collections for a year to get the claims UPRAVIT copyright with threats of multi-million dollar lawsuits. From openly working auctions and galleries, the same people accredited by Ministry of culture additionally require the transmission of data about customers and fees to be paid, with each transaction on the basis of the droit. Intractable sent to public Prosecutor's check. Probably, all this should also be regarded as a form of state support of small business: to auctioneers and gallery owners are not lazy, and to urgently enhance our business-эффективность and faster was carrying the money, where ordered. The Ministry of economic development and Ministry of culture, by the way, is aware of the problem. But they turned out anyway. And how will the market react - not difficult to guess. Perverted "care" of the state of the heirs will result in a pronounced archaism: a reduction in the number of openly operating trading platforms, the growth of the informal sector and the deteriorating conditions for sellers and buyers. Everyone who recently took the lead, again cast 10 years ago.

So congratulate yourself. Live again rebuffed: "the Negligence gave rise to the deficit, the deficit - theft theft - rudeness, rudeness - negligence that gave rise to the deficit. Hence the way out of the vicious circle that needs to be, but it is necessary to search".

is There a way out? The authorities know the basic tools of an adequate response to crises. Small business is the maximum lifting pressure. Since there is no money, then let us loose. Learned to feed the family, pay the taxes on the neck of the budget is not sitting? So well done. How to help? In the field of art-бизнеса is a moratorium on the activities of "pravoobladanie" and better - does end up as archaic. Not to interfere to create information products and sell, stopped nightmare publishers and collectors. The second important point (according to its value it even above the problem of Upraise) is the need to liberalize the procedures for the export of works of art, the facilitation of the issuance of export permits for the antique paintings, the abolition of export permits for contemporary art, etc. Bureaucratic constraints today do not allow to develop the export of art as a business. Lose at all. And intermediaries, withholding foreign buyers. And the artists themselves. And the government is not receiving taxes. And the whole Russian culture, focused within the country. This would be-хорошему should be doing. Yes,today, this development seems out of science fiction. But then you never know. Not the ones W country "black swans" live. Where-то well hidden and our blue bird.


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