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Russian art market - 2012. Preliminary results
ARTinvestment.RU   30 ноября 2012

Before the year was another month full of events. However, in terms of trends of the art market is not likely to be something new. Let's start draw the line

to Sum up a month before the end of the year — it is somewhat risky. Because for sellers this is the month that feeds a year. At the end of November — mid-December, we have a number of significant events: London's "Russian week", a series of important internal auctions, which are increasingly gaining strength, plus renewed this year, the international Salon of fine Arts. They will put an effective end to the annual statistics. However, in terms of trends is unlikely to be what-то new. It is already possible to draw a line.

the Situation in the domestic market

Domestic auction market. Even without the final figures on hand, we can confidently assume that for the active regular auctions this year was better than the previous. In 2012 in Russia on a regular basis worked more than 15 auction houses, each of which held from 2 to 10 trades per year. The main specialization of approximately 70 % of the auction houses was the realization of paintings and drawings (according to this segment ARTinvestment.RU accumulates the statistics of the auction). Last year, the auctions in Moscow and St.-Петербурга sold more than 5 thousand paintings and drawings, totaling more than $ 13 million. This year we can expect a significant increase in this parameter. I think that even multiply, given the fact that in November alone, the auction "Russian seasons" sold for $ 4 million (including PDI), i.e. "performed" a little less than 30% of last year's auction "plan" for the entire country. Domestic auction life intensified. This is a trend. And the trend is encouraging.

part of It was the installation of a new personal price record for Russian artists. And records for the internal market in General. In particular, at the end of November 2012 was the absolute record public auction transaction in the domestic market. Which, I think, will stand. 55 200 000 (including Commission) — exactly what the St. Petersburg November 23 auction house "Russian seasons" sold the painting Ivan Aivazovsky. However, if this spectacular Aivazovsky, a year still left without a record. Well, it was not 55, but 36 million, and that?1 For comparison: following the results of 2011 the most expensive public auction transaction was the sale of paintings by Konstantin Makovsky "the Goddess of the waters" (2-я half of 1880-х. Oil on canvas. 200 x 136) 29 700 000 roubles, recorded on may 15, 2011 and also not in Moscow.

But, as we know, records — is a thing in itself, they can easily be installed and in the midst of crisis. Records establish only exceptional things, and the market does not consist entirely of masterpieces. To measure the total temperature of the market is much more important than buying activity, expressed as a percentage of the number sold and put up for auction. And here, too, all is well, the activity of the whole year. In the segment of antique painting and drawing in 2012, she rose to the level of 40-50 % of lots sold against 25-35% in the past year. And in the segments of antique books, as well as orders, medals, signs and objects of history it was even better— more than 60 %. At the same time the temperament of trades and the number of real participants of book auctions and "order-медали" always outnumbered "scenic" auction. And this year, little has changed.

In 2012, Moscow has begun at least three new regular auction, not counting the electronic platforms. In addition, significantly increased the density of trading. In 2012, was the date when in one day were held for three and even four-person auction. All this testifies to the growing popularity of this form of trading on the art-рынке.

Antique gallery-segment. According to our estimates, the annual volume of transactions at the gallery market in Russia is 2.25–3 billion rubles. In Russia there are more than 30 galleries high class, each of which can provide an annual turnover of more than 300 million rubles, and still so many galleries of the second row, has a significant impact on the market. New striking trends in this market in 2012 is not apparent. As in previous years, strong galleries not only in Commerce but also implement the scientific program, made educational projects. High-profile closings of galleries, fortunately, in this segment for the year is not marked. Among the results of the past XXXIII Antique Salon (20-23 October 2012), experts note a moderate level of demand and maintaining the fence buyers related to the probability of the second wave of the global financial crisis. Among the obvious positive trends gallery — participants of the Salon noted the emergence of new buyers, not previously purchased art.

the Segment of modern art. The national market of art of the XXI century (contemporary art) at the end of 2012 is in a state of crisis. While this is a very small amount of money segment is not based on the infrastructure of repeat sales: contemporary art almost finds no place in the domestic auctions and is rarely sold on the secondary gallery market. Historically, buyers of contemporary art were purchased predominantly for the formation of private collections, so it was believed that the necessary mechanisms for the implementation of previously purchased works they do not. The majority of transactions in the segment of contemporary art take place on the trails "gallery — buyer" or "workshop — buyer." Despite local initiatives to restart this market in 2012 in our country and has not appeared in auction houses specializing in the sale of contemporary art or regularly conducting sessions in this area.

the Origins of the crisis of the national market for contemporary art go to the period preceding the crisis of 2008. In a short period of time, the contemporary art market experienced a sharp speculative growth of prices for first names, which was provided by demand from a very small number of wealthy collectors. The subsequent sharp decline of their activity in the face of economic crisis, as well as the departure of a number of collectors abroad in 2008-2011 led to the fall of liquidity in this segment. As a result, in 2012 several of the flagship galleries of the contemporary art market was even forced to announce his "reformatting" — the rejection of the classical commercial representation of artists.

among other negative factors for the market of contemporary art is possible to reduce the number of physical trading floors. So, as a result of administrative reorganization in 2012 were closed exhibition "Art-Манеж" and "HUDGRAF", which were traditionally represented by galleries dealing in contemporary art.

the Situation at the end of 2012 suggests: when buying contemporary art collectors on the-прежнему should take into account the increased investment risks associated with low liquidity. However, it is important not to lose sight of that in the world market is the segment of contemporary art took the lead in price growth. In this regard, purchasing temporarily illiquid and undervalued market of contemporary Russian art not only involve increased risks, but also have high investment potential.

the situation in the domestic market. Like last year, among the most important problems of domestic art market ARTinvestment.RU notes the decrease in overall demand associated with the economic and political situation and shortage of supply of high-class items. The acuteness of problem of trafficking of false expert opinions, pursuing the market in recent years gradually reduced. Last but not least it is connected with the development of processes of self-organization and self-regulation in the professional community. In particular, market participants, members of the International Confederation of antique and art-дилеров Russia and the CIS regularly maintain their own accreditation experts on the basis of reputational expertise. In 2012 we continued the development of a professional community of evaluators in the field of Antiques and other organizational movement.

Consumer preferences in the domestic market in 2012 did not undergo significant changes. The maximum demand shall be presented to the masterpieces that is most often in the most expensive segment and conditionally-доступном price range (up to 500 thousand rubles). Average price segment is facing problems of liquidity. The least demand is for works of low quality which until 2008 had no trouble finding a buyer.

in the absence of a bright new investment ideas, economic potential accumulated in the already developed market areas: Russian art of the first half of the twentieth century, post-war unofficial art (nonconformists) and the Russian Diaspora. In the last two segments already happening rapid recovery growth after the crisis decline in 2008.

According to forecasts, in the medium term (three years), the growth of prices on the Russian art market may be a little less than 20 % per year, traditionally ahead of the world indicators that comprise 12-15% per annum.

the Segment of Russian art in the international market

estimated ARTinvestment.RU circulation of works of Russian artists and artists orbit Russian art sold at international auctions, 5-7 times greater than the turnover of our domestic art market.

In the past year the foreign turnover of the auction of Russian art was more than 420 million dollars (3,6 % of the global turnover of the auction). In 2012 this figure is expected to grow by 20 %. The most expensive deal of the first half of 2012 for the work of the artist from the orbit of Russian art was the sale of work Mark Rothko "Orange, red, black" (1961) for 86.9 million dollars at Christie's. The picture became not only the most expensive work of the artist of Russian origin, but also the most expensive piece of postwar and contemporary art sold at public auction.

Price dynamics and purchasing activity. Dynamics of the index ARTIMX allows to conclude that the conditional thousand dollars invested in Russian art market in January 2012, became in November 1232 the dollar. Thus the Russian segment rose in price more rapidly than the world.

activity at foreign auctions in 2012 was 1.5–2 times higher than in the domestic market. So, in 2012 at the world auctions sold an average 64-65 % of "Russian" lots. And at auction in London "Russian week", the proportion of lots sold was close to 65-70 %. Works are often left without a fight, by the lower estimate, but on separate lots sprang up a serious fight. In addition to the traditional interest in the classics, at the end of trading was marked by an increased demand for works of the sixties: the first name left with a twofold excess of estimate.

the Conjuncture of foreign market for Russian art. Segment of the auction of Russian art on the international market is under pressure largely the same factors as domestic market, primarily the factor of shortage of masterpieces. Experts note that every year the directory "Russian auction" the world's leading auctions become weaker. Parallel is also a significant increase in the price of masterpieces. With high probability, this trend will intensify.

Among the new challenges for the segment of Russian art in the medium term, to note the factor of change of interests of collectors. If earlier Russian collectors have focused mostly on Russian art, Antiques, in recent years, the focus of attention of Russian buyers are present and the Impressionists, and the American post-war art and global contemporary art. This trend towards extension of investment horizons is especially enhanced by the departure of part of the collectors from Russia to the West.

Influence on the art market political factors

paradoxically, but among the negative political factors operating in the Russian art-рынок, there are two: corruption and anti-corruption. The first changes the planning horizon from the economically active class, and the second reduces the propensity to purchase among officials and those close to her business. It is not known yet which factor is stronger.

According to polls ARTinvestment.RU in the environmentantique lot of hopes were associated with the onset of the notorious stability since the end of the election cycle. Many (though not all) argued: now elect someone laid all understand that now all for a long time, and people will return to pending purchases. The logic was wrong. Apparently, after summing up the official results of the elections tranquility and confidence in the future among collectors has not increased. Instead of feeling of "stability" intensified "suitcase" mood: prominent figures of art-бизнеса moved to London, part of the active population went to Europe. It is not surprising that among those who left was the collectors that we've had without exception. Abroad, the same people have access to more efficient sales channels and reduce interaction with our domestic market. Are especially sensitive the effects of the departure of the collectors turned out for the market of contemporary art.

In the fourth quarter, the art market was faced with another thing — revealing revelations among officials. You can argue whether we are talking about a sudden Epiphany at the top, or it echoes the struggle of elites, but for the art market is in this case indifferent. The value has a different career to defeat any high official generates almost tectonic processes on the second and third levels of the hierarchy. When one figure moves, then it moves 30-100 people "superiors" at the lower level. Run powerful processes job changes, people get new jobs. This process is stretched for about six months-год. Gallery owners have noticed that all this time nobody buys. Either for gifts or for personal consumption. It is easy to predict that when the process involved dozens of high-level officials, the consequences feel all art-рынок. Among the indirect, but additional complications demonstrative fight against corruption for the art-рынка is necessary to note and negative background information. After searches for beauty on the camera it is impossible to demonstrate foreign deposits and shares in the form of records on accounts. But the antique paintings —. With the promise: "Here they are, the crooks are surrounded by Antiques!" And few people bother to understand that pictures are far from masterpieces, like bought not very knowledgeable people will not know much about people. Importantly, in the same row are the search in the Moscow apartment of the wealthy is doubtful of the official and seized as material evidences Antiques. The consequences of this informational influence can poison the life of the participants of the Russian art market is already far not one year. What wonder that in London continue to buy pert and noisy, and we have — silence.

not to finish on the problems, think again the positive results of 2012. So, what we had was good?

In Moscow actively developed auction format. Buyers began to seek to fix the result of transactions at public auction. 10-15 % increase in buying activity. Was set an auction record for the internal market (Aivazovsky for 55,2 million rbl.).

important for the market XXXIII Antique salon in Central house of artists, participants noted the emergence of new buyers.

the organizers resumed MoscowInternational Salon Of Fine Arts.

In the international market was updated personal records of many Russian artists, including those who ranked in the top-20 Russian art. In particular, in 2012 was updated Highscores Boris Kustodiev, Ivan Aivazovsky, Mark Rothko. The work last sold for 86.9 million dollars, set a world record price for the artist's works from the orbit of Russian art.

1 In June the auction "Russian enamel" 36 million rubles each were sold in works by Igor Grabar "Pears on red tablecloth" (1921. Oil on cardboard. 52 x 68) and Nicholas Feshin "still life with fruit" (1923. Canvas on cardboard, oil. 61,4 x 72).

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