Art Market - 2010. Results and forecasts
ARTinvestment.RU   11 января 2011

A sober look and rational approach, there is no panic, no euphoria. Only a strange all this ... Why did not something happened that would seem to happen, and whether this will happen in the coming year?

About the past year from the point of view of the Russian art market you can definitely say one thing: it was very strange and vague. I would call it the year of confusion and volatility. It happens: it would seem that-то should happen, but why-то not happening. Or all develops incomprehensible "twists": the market is breathing again fell into stagnation. And it is not clear what to expect and what to navigate. On the Western trends? Not good: crisis-то by our standards was a funny — drop 15-20 percent, and recovery is at a rapid pace. In 2010 have been updated twice world record price of works of art: first, Giacometti and Picasso. And for some of the leading auction houses, in particular for the Bonhams and Christie's, year 2010-й and all were the best in history.

we Have the same last year turned out a little not like other people. market participants polled ARTinvestment.RU, without guile noted that in late 2010, the crisis in the Russian art market has not yet ended. And the next year defeated expectations too, no one shows.

Summing up it is time to start with the boring but necessary statistics. The world price index of art (auction weight) finished the year at the level of June 2009. ARTIMX amounted to 1563 points. For comparison, at its peak in August 2008, the world's ARTIMX was 2386 points. But the pace of recovery in the world market mathematically was really good. Probation $ 1,000 invested in the art world in early 2010, the chime turned into 1402 of the dollar. a thousand dollars invested in Russian art, for the year turned in 1101 the dollar. But this, remember, auction statistics, which is due to the format of the event is usually characterized by greater pathos. That is the situation on the domestic market has a right to be much worse.

According to the results, it is useful to look at the dynamics of the index of consumer activity. Our proprietary Indexes, by the way, is a pretty good forecaster. Noticed that six months after the beginning of the growth index of purchasing activity starts price growth across the market. Conversely, should the index of consumer activity start to decline (even in the background blissful atmosphere), as some six months subside, and auction prices. It is a saying. A tale that for the past year Indexes-RUS the Russian market grew rapidly. Definitely faster than the world index (which showed lateral dynamics). And in the Russian index finished in positive territory. This would be an optimistic note and finish. But again there is a caveat. In late October of Indexes-RUS suddenly moved down and steadily decreased to the end of the year. And what on this background, allow me to draw conclusions? The only one that you need to follow the development of the situation in the first quarter of 2011-го.

Thought — tears. In the figures, it is felt, however, won't open. So back to logic and to the analysis of events 2010-го.

the title "scandal of the year" claim the claim of Viktor Vekselberg to Christie's regarding a refund for the fake "Odalisque" by BorisKustodiev. the question Price much above the 1.7 million pounds paid for a painting by an unknown artist in 2005. And it's not only about the enormous reputational loss. Much more important is that in Britain — case law, so the outcome of this case (filed a lawsuit) will show in the-первых, which is a five-year warranty provided by the auction of Albion, and in-вторых, the opinion of some experts was adopted by the British side. Which, incidentally, is very good. The most powerful positive of this whole situation for us is that "forewarned — is forearmed." Beginners Russian collectors will get rid of many illusions: that at prestigious auctions to buy exactly safe; that then no problem to arrange the return; that instead of trying to understand myself enough to rely on a third-party expert opinions. Now obviously, not enough. Smarter will.

Generally speaking, for buyers well, when the discussion about fakes is conducted professionally. is Bad, when in General-то useful educational things turned to the state of the odious "horror stories". An obvious example in the past year was the the film channel "Russia-1" "Cultural hoax", announced as "a stunning investigation by Boris Sobolev". The leitmotif of the report was the fact that the antique market is teeming with fakes and buy what-либо it — madness. The experts regarded the film as a disgrace. And for viewers who not in the subject, the film is quite convincing — batter any desire of newcomers to be involved in the collection process. Guess who benefits from the discrediting of the market endlessly. But it is clear that after watching such television "horror stories" of collectors in Russia will not increase.

Among the most high-profile deals of the year one of the strangest was announced in December at MacDougall's sale of the painting "the Little cowboy" Nikolai Fechin for 6.9 million pounds estimeyte 0,5-0,7 million.

market Participants were surprised by the fact that the picture is not rare artist suddenly sold about 10-кратным the excess of the market price of comparable quality, and therefore suggested to wait for more information and developments. If the record to record right now, formally Feshin needs to shift from seventh place in the ranking of the most expensive works of Russian painting Natalia Goncharova and take place immediately after then. By the way, Natalia Goncharova — is the only Russian artist in the top ten, who updated his personal record in 2010. in February its "Spanish flu" was sold at Christie's for 6,43 million pounds.

But in 2010, collectors it was the time to start a newnonconformist theme — "second forbidden art". the Material for the year were plenty. Authorities of all ranks, huh? the prosecution of artists and curators, the aggressive acts of censorship and self-censorship did not start today. But in 2010, it became clear that we are not talking about individual misunderstandings, but the trend. Let's remember last year: the sentence with a fine in the case of Yuri Samodurov and Andrei Yerofeyev (for the exhibition "Forbidden art"), the persecution of the organizer of the mobs@-"Monstration" of the artist Artem Loskutov (see ), the scandal with the "non-admission" to the exhibition in the Louvre "Russian counterpoint" of Avdey Ter-Оганьяна from a series "Radical abstractionism" (see ), tinkering with the identification of extremism in the works of Gregory Yushchenko's series "the Magic psychedelic police", denominated, by the way, Kandinsky Prize (see ). In the same row — aggravation of the situation of citizenship and criminal prosecution (see ) Oleg Mavromatti ("extremist" article for the performance "I am not the son of God", see ), the threat of a lawsuit by 282-й article Anton Nikolaev and Denis Mustafin for organizing a street exhibition "Infrastructure" (see ), the warning Roskomnadzor issued to the magazine "ArtChronika" for publishing "extremist" Kosolapova "Icon-икра" (see ). And of course, the apotheosis of the fight against extremism in 2010 — arrest and detention of artists of group "War" Oleg Vorotnikova and Leonid Nikolaev for the action "Palace coup" using police cars (see ). Too much in one year. It's only the most resonant cases in the infamous repressive mosaic.

What we can expect in the coming year? Impact on the future of the art market (not even for a year, and on a much more long-term) will provide a range of "dark" and "bright" events — a sort of "Yin" and "Yang". Let's start with the "Yin". It is clear that the verdict in the second Khodorkovsky and Lebedev case, read the last days of 2010, and will have a negative impact on the business-атмосфере in the country and in General worsen the mood of many people who earn money. It is also clear that the growth of specific social processes, the symptom of which was the action at the Manege square, also forced many wealthy people to think about. And their thoughts will be far from investment in the arts. And investments in Russia. Speaking of fashion in higher policy language kinotsitat, flowers in the houses wither, where the atmosphere is very strict.

At the same time on the side of "Yang" was supposed to earn the enormous costs of the state and the private sector, associated with Olympics-2014 in Sochi and the world Cup — 2018. massive infrastructure costs tend to be delayed for some-то pockets. But if these pockets have to be inside the country, it isenhances the market of prestigious consumption. Including the art market.

it is uncertain how the future will affect the art market changes in the leadership of Moscow. Immediately after the dismissal of the mayor, several market participants said the sharp decline in purchases from the officials. That was tangible for our galleries. But while this can be interpreted as blitz-реакцию on uncertainty. And in the future, at least two scenarios. First — negative: costs will shrink. Second: rich buyers, on the contrary, let some of the capital investment in art as less vulnerable to control the asset. the Latter scenario, of course, promises more opportunities for the market of Russian art. Wait — will see.

no matter How developed the market conditions in 2011, some of the processes would not be affected. Russian market, of course, will continue the process of growing up. Overspend has gone out of fashion. And entered —, the ability to understand. Last year we ARTinvestment.RU noticed a growing interest in practical education, basic knowledge about the market externally. While this is not-то powerful trend, but the movement is. Trends from last year that will apply to 2011-й, — increased attention to quality in the second quarter of the twentieth century. Collectors happy to find new ideas and new names. Among the hopes for 2011 — acceleration of the monetization of the market of Russian contemporary art to achievements and reward status was converted into the profits of artists and profile galleries. In General, the pressure on modern art, everything that takes him from a state of comfort, should have a positive impact on the quality, to generate new and bold ideas. A tactical rethink is happening on the market of works of the sixties, representatives of the post-war unofficial art. After a temporary price drawdown collectors again gather strength and have the opportunity to buy the choicest things with a crisis at a discount.

No confusion can not last forever. In 2011-м on the market are bound to happen exacerbation, occur progress. And the movement — is always good.

Vladimir Bogdanov, AI