Art Basel & UBS Conversation: the hunt for social beast
ARTinvestment.RU   20 мая 2020

Functionaries and analysts at major art-ярмарки spent online-конференцию on the future of the art market

Art Basel, not far wanting to let the buyers in connection with the transfer of the June fair in Basel in September, recently announced three events. In-первых, 17 June "Swiss" part of the fair opens online-кабинетов in-вторых, by the autumn we expect the first semi-annual report The Art Market, summarizing the art market in quarantine (I sincerely hope that everyone six months and will cost). The third event was online-конференция officials of the fair, held may 19 on the main results of which we'll talk.

the conference was attended by familiar to our readers: the head of analytical Department of Art Basel, the author reports The Art Market Clare McAndrew, Director of the fair for markets in the Americas, Noah Horowitz and chief economist of Department of management of property of the Bank UBS Paul Donovan. The meeting was moderated by Melanie Gerlis, the author of the column about the art-рынке in the Financial Times. Will form said members in the form of twenty theses:

1. The beginning of 2020 were encouraging: finally-то accomplished "Brakcet" was to put an end to the uncertainty of collectors who feared changes in the trade rules of art on the grounds of London and, depending on the outcome, or to strengthen the British market, or to redistribute sales to other geographical locations (new-Йорк, Hong Kong). In short, Art Basel, the analysts predicted that 2020-й year sales will exceed 2019-й.

2. Art-рынок historically by-разному responds to world events, and not always the cause of his downturn was a clear economic crises — in particular, it took him 14 years to 2004 ($30.3 billion) return and exceed the 1990 figure of ($27,2).

3. Nevertheless, it is to the market downturn of 1990-х years was the largest of today's players opened the gallery Perrotin (1990), Hauser & Wirth (1992), White Cube and David Zwirner (1993). Perhaps in later years we also expect the emergence of new superstars among sellers of art.

4. Indicators of the art market in times of crisis is almost not related to the levels of GDP of individual countries, a little more than the relationship observed between the sales of art and wealth (despite the fact that the latest figures are still very poorly correlated: in data Deloitte Art & Finance, over the past 10 years sales of art increased by 9 %, and the welfare of super-rich people — on 108 %).

5. In 2009, after two years of recession market indicators recovered, thanks largely to China and its customers. Maybe this time China will also come to the rescue: quarantine over there before, and the economy should recover faster (except that this will prevent trade wars initiated by the United States).

6. Having the experience in 2007-2008, individual countries are now better prepared for economic downturns, can not be said about the sellers of the art: considering the average age of galleries selling contemporary art in the primary market (11 years), most of them are facing crisis for the first time.

7. Against the current situation — crisis caused by the pandemic, — there is no historical recipe of struggle: economic science knows how to survive the effects of the "bubbles" in the crisis of overproduction, but not the consequences of stopping allproduction processes at once.

8. People during the quarantine will remain savings, but at the end of their waste, with high probability, be unnecessarily wasteful: the example of Asian countries, where the quarantine mode is lifted, talks about the irrational use of funds. The accumulated money just "burn in the pockets" of owners. For example, in Shanghai in the first week after the lifting of social restrictions were set a historical record on volume of purchased goods and services entertainment sphere. The question that stands today on the agenda of the functionaries of the art-рынка: how to make the purchase of works of art as an entertainment form?

9. The buyer wants to buy art "on the decline" of the market at a discount, you should remember that even if a collector needs the money and is willing to reduce the price, as a rule, he leaves the best items to yourself, and offers more weak on the artistic value of the work.

10. Selling with discount — is an extreme case, leading to the decline of price movements of art objects. Much better (and healthier for the market) for the seller to offer customers a form of payment, as installment.

11. At the end of the pandemic, many countries are expected to impose new taxes or increase existing rates. In particular, given the transition of markets to work in the Internet in the first place will increase the number of countries that impose VAT international suppliers of electronic services — cloud services from data storage to contextual advertising (in Russia this model is known as a "tax on Google").

12. Three main characteristics of trade relations, which brought the year 2020: online-продажи, remoting and localization of local markets. The same thing happens on the art market: the further development of technologies should be expected in these areas.

13. Technology alone is not important. What matters is how we — and the art market in particular — will be able to use them.

14. In fact, today the mankind is back to the way of life of the XVIII century, when the maid went shopping and the owner was making money sitting at home. The only difference is that today's "servants" — is the Internet.

15. The Internet today is — is a platform not just for selling art, but also for its promotion: from educational programs for collectors to tools career artists (virtual exhibitions and residences).

16. Today people buy art online because they do not have other channels of acquisition. At the same time increases the transparency of the market, because you can track prices (the ability to track the prices were always — another thing is that reluctant. Primarily from sellers).

17. All of today's forms of social interactions with art — exhibitions, residences, online-образование — at the end of the quarantine should have no less weight than the usual "physical" action. In other words, the virtual activity should expand summary artists, and the academic world is obliged to reckon with it.

18. People sooner or later will want to travel, because the international pursuit of art — is "hunting for a social animal".

19. The adepts of technology, a new class of collectors, who started to emerge in recent years, is expected to be released from quarantine winners, failing to capitalize on their technological products. The task of art-рынка — not to miss them (and their money).

20. We underestimate the ability of mankind to adapt to changes. Be sure using what-то time we will remember the consequences of quarantine is not only bitterly, but with a smile.

the Conference lasted about an hour, after which the moderator was chosen five questions (the answers we are quietly slipped to the theses above). More than a hundred questions were not announced. Considering the opinion of the audience is important, the AI has retained the questions and grouped them according to the directions. Here's what we got:

• technology in art: 25 %;
• the crisis and its consequences: 15 %;
• the artist's career: 13 %;
• collectors and collecting: 12 %;
• pricing on the art market: 11 %;
• problems of galleries: 9 %;
• development of regional markets: 7 %;
• segments of art (painting, photograph etc): 5 %;
• problems of auction houses: 3 %.

Questions that have a turnover of "what to do?": 25 %.
Questions, offering to evaluate a new idea: 27 %.
the Issues associated with the current business, occupation or career: 48 %.

Questions in a negative or cynical way: 8 %.
the Issues in a positive way: 92 %.

Perhaps these figures are most informative reflect the current state of the market: fortunately, it is less fixated on the problems than focusing on their decisions.

Denys Belkevych, AI