The re-sale of Russian artists in 2019
ARTinvestment.RU   25 февраля 2020

AI analyzes the re-sale of works of Russian artists that took place at the auction of the largest auction houses in the last season

In a recent material we have AI told on the importance of statistics repeat sales for analysis of the art market, and explained value CAGR — annual average growth rate of the value of art objects. Armed with this knowledge, it will be easier to assess the value of — statistics on re-sales of Russian artists in 2019. For the study we have chosen the sales made at Sotheby's and Christie's, this was considered not only the "Russian auction", but international representing artists from the orbit of Russian art.

table 1. Work with the best performance CAGR, 2019

# Name Name the Auction Sale, $ Year Selling, $ The period of ownership Shaft. profit, $ CAGR, %
1 Chelishchev Pavel Fedorovich Sad clown Christie's 3 600 1999 41 789 20 38 189 53,0
2 Glazunov Ilya Sergeevich Eudoxia (Euphrosyne of Moscow) Sotheby's 8 722 2014 27 338 5 18 616 42,7
3 Lermontov Nadezhda Vladimirovna Portrait of Madame V. P. Klimovich-Томер Christie's 7 002 1992 79 150 27 72 148 38,2
4 Capezio Xenia Konradova Moscow. Moskvoretsky bridge Sotheby's 891 2015 2 222 4 1 331 37,3
5 Jawlensky, Alexei G. the Abstract head Sotheby's 198 736 2018 262 500 1 63 764 32,1
6 Zakharov Vadim Anisovich C-3 Sotheby's 23 402 2016 41 811 3 18 409 26,2
7 Roerich Nikolai Konstantinovich Guru-Guri Dhar Sotheby's 28 281 2015 56 284 4 28 003 24,8
8 Lempicka, Tamara de Wisdom Christie's 192 000 1993 1 215 000 26 1 023 000 20,5
9 Aivazovsky, Ivan Konstantinovich Pushkin looking out to sea from the Crimean coast Christie's 38 010 1995 208 943 24 170 933 18,7
10 Guryanov Georgy Gay-игры Sotheby's 54 548 2016 83 820 3 29 272 17,9

table 2. Work with the worst performance CAGR, 2019

# Name Name the Auction Sale, $ Year Sale, $ the Period of ownership Shaft. profit, $ CAGR, %
1 Larionov, Mikhail Fedorovich Still life with snowdrops for "Voyage en Turquie" Christie's 6 660 2017 4 500 2 (2 160) -16,2
2 Chagall, Marc Zaharovich Couleurs de l'amour Christie's 86 094 2018 75 000 1 (11 094) -12,9
3 Weber, Max Three Heads Christie's 18 750 2016 12 500 3 (6 250) -11,1
4 Tyshler Alexander Grigorievich Kidnapping Sotheby's 41 058 2012 13 669 7 (27 389) -9,5
5 Chelishchev Pavel Fedorovich Hide and seek Sotheby's 23 282 2013 12 061 6 (11 221) -8,0
6 Chagall, Marc Zaharovich 'ile Saint-Louis Christie's 13 750 2015 9 353 4 (4 397) -8,0
7 Chelishchev Pavel Fedorovich New York Roofs Christie's 4 971 2016 3 811 3 (1 160) -7,8
8 Nemukhin Vladimir Nikolaevich the Joker No. 5 Sotheby's 98 310 2008 19 298 11 (79 012) -7,3
9 Pokhitonov Ivan Pavlovich Interior with flower vase on the mantelpiece Sotheby's 375 548 2007 64 325 12 (311 223) -6,9
10 Drevin Alexander Davidovich moor Sotheby's 94 160 2008 23 811 11 (70 349) -6,8

General data repeat sales, 2019:

  • All the artists represented at the auction: 272;
  • artists from the repeat sales: 38 (14% of the total number);
  • of All re-sales: 66.

Review AI: 14% of Russian artists with the re-sale of the total number, — is a very modest figure. For comparison, according to The Sotheby's Mei Moses Indices, in the global scale of the total number of artists twice or more at auction were sold 56% of the authors. The number of repeat sales in 2019, one international artist — on average six. While the Russian authors — less than two such sales. However, note the difference in approach buyers of Russian art to a greater extent acquired in private collections, without calculating on resale (so-called emotional or social investment). While international collectors in recent decades, buying a piece of art, initially keeping in mind its financial performance.

Quantitative indicators of repeat sales, 2019:

  • the Average cost of purchase: $283 тыс.;
  • the Average price to sales: $308 тыс.;
  • gross profit sellers: $1.69 million

Review AI: it is Important what gross profit sellers of Russian art (i.e. before deduction of taxes, fees and maintenance costs) — plus. A more detailed analysis shows that the average value of the sold items were not obtained due to several high-profile sales, and distributed to lots more-менее evenly.

the Average annual growth cost (CAGR) of repeat sales, 2019:

  • the Average value CAGR: of 4.3%;
  • Percentage of lots with a CAGR of ( ) of the total number: 52%;
  • Percentage of lots with a CAGR of (–) of the total number: 47%;
  • Percentage of lots with a CAGR of (0) of the total number: 2%.

Review AI: the Average annual growth of value of Russian art almost twice less than the average art-рынку (7.6 per cent). However, note that the study we took one in 2019, and today the market of Russian art has just started to recover after crisis period. A slight advantage of sales with the positive dynamics of the prices (52%) gives reason for cautious optimism. You should pay attention to the time of the execution of a previous transaction, and the holding period, what will be discussed below.

holding Periods for works resold in 2019:

  • the Average period of tenure: 11 years;
  • the Average holding period at a CAGR of ( ): 14 years;
  • the Average holding period at a CAGR of (–): 9years;
  • the Average holding period at a CAGR (0): 2 years.

Review AI: the Peak of the speculative market sales of Russian art occurred in 2007-2009, and today we see the consequences: the highest number of negative growth rates was purchased in this period. Possession more than 14 years overall, has positive indicators of final sales, because collectors have bought the work at appropriate market prices at the time. Positive gains in 2019 showed purchases made in 2015-2016: purchase at a discount to the market downturn always have investment potential.

Indicators auction houses, 2019:

  • Share lots of repeat sales at Sotheby's: 45,5%;
  • Share lots of repeat sales at Christie's: 55,5%;
  • the Average CAGR Sotheby's: for 4.8%;
  • the Average CAGR Christie's: 3,9%.

Review AI: the Dynamics of sales of Russian art in 2019 says the following: people no longer trust the sale of works of Christie's, but the best result was shown by Sotheby's. The difference is 20% in the CAGR rate — enough to say the following: Christie's better to work with sellers, Sotheby's — with buyers works.

table 3. Russian artists with the best rates CAGR, 2019

# Name CAGR, %
1 Lermontov Nadezhda Vladimirovna 38,2
2 Capezio Xenia Konradova 37,3
3 Jawlensky, Alexei G. 32,1
4 Zakharov Vadim Anisovich 26,2
5 Roerich Nikolai Konstantinovich 24,8
6 Glazunov Ilya Sergeevich 19,6
7 Guryanov Georgy 17,9
8 Vasily Kandinsky 13,7
9 Lempicka Tamara de 11,6
10 Chelishchev Pavel Fedorovich 10,5

Table 4. Russian artists with the worst performance CAGR, 2019

# Name CAGR, %
1 Weber, Max -11,1
2 Larionov, Mikhail Fedorovich -10,5
3 Tyshler Alexander Grigorievich -9,5
4 Nemukhin Vladimir Nikolaevich -7,3
5 Pokhitonov Ivan Pavlovich -6,9
6 Drevin Alexander Davidovich -6,8
7 Sychkov V. Fedotov -6,7
8 Gerasimov, Alexander Mikhailovich -6,4
9 Vinogradov Sergei Arsenievich -6,2
10 Shishkin Ivan Ivanovich -6,2

In conclusion, in US dollars price indicators at the time of the trades shown are based on sustainable hypothesis that the currency is the main currency savings collectors who buy Russian art abroad. Another important to understand the fact: data for one individual, 2019 may not serve as a basis for making informed investment decisions. However, this information can serve as a starting point for understanding market trends and independent analysis of individual results with our readers.

In the future AI plans to complement an existing database of auction results for subscribers a convenient tool for working with data re -sales.



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