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The re-sale of Russian artists in 2019
ARTinvestment.RU 25 февраля 2020
AI analyzes the re-sale of works of Russian artists that took place at the auction of the largest auction houses in the last season
In a recent material we have AI told on the importance of statistics repeat sales for analysis of the art market, and explained value CAGR — annual average growth rate of the value of art objects. Armed with this knowledge, it will be easier to assess the value of — statistics on re-sales of Russian artists in 2019. For the study we have chosen the sales made at Sotheby's and Christie's, this was considered not only the "Russian auction", but international representing artists from the orbit of Russian art.
table 1. Work with the best performance CAGR, 2019
# | Name | Name | the Auction | Sale, $ | Year | Selling, $ | The period of ownership | Shaft. profit, $ | CAGR, % |
1 | Chelishchev Pavel Fedorovich | Sad clown | Christie's | 3 600 | 1999 | 41 789 | 20 | 38 189 | 53,0 |
2 | Glazunov Ilya Sergeevich | Eudoxia (Euphrosyne of Moscow) | Sotheby's | 8 722 | 2014 | 27 338 | 5 | 18 616 | 42,7 |
3 | Lermontov Nadezhda Vladimirovna | Portrait of Madame V. P. Klimovich-Томер | Christie's | 7 002 | 1992 | 79 150 | 27 | 72 148 | 38,2 |
4 | Capezio Xenia Konradova | Moscow. Moskvoretsky bridge | Sotheby's | 891 | 2015 | 2 222 | 4 | 1 331 | 37,3 |
5 | Jawlensky, Alexei G. | the Abstract head | Sotheby's | 198 736 | 2018 | 262 500 | 1 | 63 764 | 32,1 |
6 | Zakharov Vadim Anisovich | C-3 | Sotheby's | 23 402 | 2016 | 41 811 | 3 | 18 409 | 26,2 |
7 | Roerich Nikolai Konstantinovich | Guru-Guri Dhar | Sotheby's | 28 281 | 2015 | 56 284 | 4 | 28 003 | 24,8 |
8 | Lempicka, Tamara de | Wisdom | Christie's | 192 000 | 1993 | 1 215 000 | 26 | 1 023 000 | 20,5 |
9 | Aivazovsky, Ivan Konstantinovich | Pushkin looking out to sea from the Crimean coast | Christie's | 38 010 | 1995 | 208 943 | 24 | 170 933 | 18,7 |
10 | Guryanov Georgy | Gay-игры | Sotheby's | 54 548 | 2016 | 83 820 | 3 | 29 272 | 17,9 |
table 2. Work with the worst performance CAGR, 2019
# | Name | Name | the Auction | Sale, $ | Year | Sale, $ | the Period of ownership | Shaft. profit, $ | CAGR, % |
1 | Larionov, Mikhail Fedorovich | Still life with snowdrops for "Voyage en Turquie" | Christie's | 6 660 | 2017 | 4 500 | 2 | (2 160) | -16,2 |
2 | Chagall, Marc Zaharovich | Couleurs de l'amour | Christie's | 86 094 | 2018 | 75 000 | 1 | (11 094) | -12,9 |
3 | Weber, Max | Three Heads | Christie's | 18 750 | 2016 | 12 500 | 3 | (6 250) | -11,1 |
4 | Tyshler Alexander Grigorievich | Kidnapping | Sotheby's | 41 058 | 2012 | 13 669 | 7 | (27 389) | -9,5 |
5 | Chelishchev Pavel Fedorovich | Hide and seek | Sotheby's | 23 282 | 2013 | 12 061 | 6 | (11 221) | -8,0 |
6 | Chagall, Marc Zaharovich | 'ile Saint-Louis | Christie's | 13 750 | 2015 | 9 353 | 4 | (4 397) | -8,0 |
7 | Chelishchev Pavel Fedorovich | New York Roofs | Christie's | 4 971 | 2016 | 3 811 | 3 | (1 160) | -7,8 |
8 | Nemukhin Vladimir Nikolaevich | the Joker No. 5 | Sotheby's | 98 310 | 2008 | 19 298 | 11 | (79 012) | -7,3 |
9 | Pokhitonov Ivan Pavlovich | Interior with flower vase on the mantelpiece | Sotheby's | 375 548 | 2007 | 64 325 | 12 | (311 223) | -6,9 |
10 | Drevin Alexander Davidovich | moor | Sotheby's | 94 160 | 2008 | 23 811 | 11 | (70 349) | -6,8 |
General data repeat sales, 2019:
- All the artists represented at the auction: 272;
- artists from the repeat sales: 38 (14% of the total number);
- of All re-sales: 66.
Review AI: 14% of Russian artists with the re-sale of the total number, — is a very modest figure. For comparison, according to The Sotheby's Mei Moses Indices, in the global scale of the total number of artists twice or more at auction were sold 56% of the authors. The number of repeat sales in 2019, one international artist — on average six. While the Russian authors — less than two such sales. However, note the difference in approach buyers of Russian art to a greater extent acquired in private collections, without calculating on resale (so-called emotional or social investment). While international collectors in recent decades, buying a piece of art, initially keeping in mind its financial performance.
Quantitative indicators of repeat sales, 2019:
- the Average cost of purchase: $283 тыс.;
- the Average price to sales: $308 тыс.;
- gross profit sellers: $1.69 million
Review AI: it is Important what gross profit sellers of Russian art (i.e. before deduction of taxes, fees and maintenance costs) — plus. A more detailed analysis shows that the average value of the sold items were not obtained due to several high-profile sales, and distributed to lots more-менее evenly.
the Average annual growth cost (CAGR) of repeat sales, 2019:
- the Average value CAGR: of 4.3%;
- Percentage of lots with a CAGR of ( ) of the total number: 52%;
- Percentage of lots with a CAGR of (–) of the total number: 47%;
- Percentage of lots with a CAGR of (0) of the total number: 2%.
Review AI: the Average annual growth of value of Russian art almost twice less than the average art-рынку (7.6 per cent). However, note that the study we took one in 2019, and today the market of Russian art has just started to recover after crisis period. A slight advantage of sales with the positive dynamics of the prices (52%) gives reason for cautious optimism. You should pay attention to the time of the execution of a previous transaction, and the holding period, what will be discussed below.
holding Periods for works resold in 2019:
- the Average period of tenure: 11 years;
- the Average holding period at a CAGR of ( ): 14 years;
- the Average holding period at a CAGR of (–): 9years;
- the Average holding period at a CAGR (0): 2 years.
Review AI: the Peak of the speculative market sales of Russian art occurred in 2007-2009, and today we see the consequences: the highest number of negative growth rates was purchased in this period. Possession more than 14 years overall, has positive indicators of final sales, because collectors have bought the work at appropriate market prices at the time. Positive gains in 2019 showed purchases made in 2015-2016: purchase at a discount to the market downturn always have investment potential.
Indicators auction houses, 2019:
- Share lots of repeat sales at Sotheby's: 45,5%;
- Share lots of repeat sales at Christie's: 55,5%;
- the Average CAGR Sotheby's: for 4.8%;
- the Average CAGR Christie's: 3,9%.
Review AI: the Dynamics of sales of Russian art in 2019 says the following: people no longer trust the sale of works of Christie's, but the best result was shown by Sotheby's. The difference is 20% in the CAGR rate — enough to say the following: Christie's better to work with sellers, Sotheby's — with buyers works.
table 3. Russian artists with the best rates CAGR, 2019
# | Name | CAGR, % |
1 | Lermontov Nadezhda Vladimirovna | 38,2 |
2 | Capezio Xenia Konradova | 37,3 |
3 | Jawlensky, Alexei G. | 32,1 |
4 | Zakharov Vadim Anisovich | 26,2 |
5 | Roerich Nikolai Konstantinovich | 24,8 |
6 | Glazunov Ilya Sergeevich | 19,6 |
7 | Guryanov Georgy | 17,9 |
8 | Vasily Kandinsky | 13,7 |
9 | Lempicka Tamara de | 11,6 |
10 | Chelishchev Pavel Fedorovich | 10,5 |
Table 4. Russian artists with the worst performance CAGR, 2019
# | Name | CAGR, % |
1 | Weber, Max | -11,1 |
2 | Larionov, Mikhail Fedorovich | -10,5 |
3 | Tyshler Alexander Grigorievich | -9,5 |
4 | Nemukhin Vladimir Nikolaevich | -7,3 |
5 | Pokhitonov Ivan Pavlovich | -6,9 |
6 | Drevin Alexander Davidovich | -6,8 |
7 | Sychkov V. Fedotov | -6,7 |
8 | Gerasimov, Alexander Mikhailovich | -6,4 |
9 | Vinogradov Sergei Arsenievich | -6,2 |
10 | Shishkin Ivan Ivanovich | -6,2 |
In conclusion, in US dollars price indicators at the time of the trades shown are based on sustainable hypothesis that the currency is the main currency savings collectors who buy Russian art abroad. Another important to understand the fact: data for one individual, 2019 may not serve as a basis for making informed investment decisions. However, this information can serve as a starting point for understanding market trends and independent analysis of individual results with our readers.
In the future AI plans to complement an existing database of auction results for subscribers a convenient tool for working with data re -sales.
https://artinvestment.ru/en/invest/analytics/20200225_resale.html
https://artinvestment.ru/invest/analytics/20200225_resale.html
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Top 37
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- 4. Marc Chagall$28,45 million
- 5. Chaim Soutine$28,16 million
- 6. Nicolas Staël$22,25 million
- 7. Alexei Jawlensky$18,59 million
- 8. Valentin Serov$14,51 million
- 9. Tamara de Lempicka$13,36 million
- 10. Nicholas Roerich$12,13 million
- 11. Kuzma Petrov-Vodkin$11,76 million
- 12. Natalia Goncharova$10,88 million
- 13. Nicolai Fechin$10,84 million
- 14. Ilya Repin$7,43 million
- 15. Konstantin Somov$7,33 million
- 16. Ilya Mashkov$7,25 million
- 17. Boris Kustodiev$7,07 million
- 18. Vasily Polenov$6,34 million
- 19. Yuri Annenkov$6,27 million
- 20. Ivan Klyun$6,26 million
- 21. Vasily Vereshchagin$6,15 million
- 22. Zinaida Serebriakova$5,85 million
- 23. Ilya Kabakov$5,83 million
- 24. Alexander Yakovlev$5,56 million
- 25. Konstantin Makovsky$5,47 million
- 26. Wladimir Baranoff-Rossine$5,37 million
- 27. Ivan Aivazovsky$5,34 million
- 28. Vladimir Borovikovsky$5,02 million
- 29. Alexander Rodchenko$4,5 million
- 30. Mikhail Larionov$4,46 million
- 31. Sonia Delaunay$4,34 million
- 32. Mikhail Nesterov$4,30 million
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- 34. Mikhail Klodt$4,02 million
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- 36. Alexandr Deineka$3,82 million
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