AI analyzes the re-sale of works of Russian artists that took place at the auction of the largest auction houses in the last season

• TCHELITCHEW Pavel (1898-1957), a Sad clown. 1932
  Cardboard, gouache. 74,6 × 54,5
  Source: artinvestment.ru

In a recent material we have AI told on the importance of statistics repeat sales for analysis of the art market, and explained value CAGR — annual average growth rate of the value of art objects. Armed with this knowledge, it will be easier to assess the value of — statistics on re-sales of Russian artists in 2019. For the study we have chosen the sales made at Sotheby's and Christie's, this was considered not only the "Russian auction", but international representing artists from the orbit of Russian art.

table 1. Work with the best performance CAGR, 2019

#	Name	Name	the Auction	Sale, $	Year	Selling, $	The period of ownership	Shaft. profit, $	CAGR, %
1	Chelishchev Pavel Fedorovich	Sad clown	Christie's	3 600	1999	41 789	20	38 189	53,0
2	Glazunov Ilya Sergeevich	Eudoxia (Euphrosyne of Moscow)	Sotheby's	8 722	2014	27 338	5	18 616	42,7
3	Lermontov Nadezhda Vladimirovna	Portrait of Madame V. P. Klimovich-Томер	Christie's	7 002	1992	79 150	27	72 148	38,2
4	Capezio Xenia Konradova	Moscow. Moskvoretsky bridge	Sotheby's	891	2015	2 222	4	1 331	37,3
5	Jawlensky, Alexei G.	the Abstract head	Sotheby's	198 736	2018	262 500	1	63 764	32,1
6	Zakharov Vadim Anisovich	C-3	Sotheby's	23 402	2016	41 811	3	18 409	26,2
7	Roerich Nikolai Konstantinovich	Guru-Guri Dhar	Sotheby's	28 281	2015	56 284	4	28 003	24,8
8	Lempicka, Tamara de	Wisdom	Christie's	192 000	1993	1 215 000	26	1 023 000	20,5
9	Aivazovsky, Ivan Konstantinovich	Pushkin looking out to sea from the Crimean coast	Christie's	38 010	1995	208 943	24	170 933	18,7
10	Guryanov Georgy	Gay-игры	Sotheby's	54 548	2016	83 820	3	29 272	17,9

table 2. Work with the worst performance CAGR, 2019

#	Name	Name	the Auction	Sale, $	Year	Sale, $	the Period of ownership	Shaft. profit, $	CAGR, %
1	Larionov, Mikhail Fedorovich	Still life with snowdrops for "Voyage en Turquie"	Christie's	6 660	2017	4 500	2	(2 160)	-16,2
2	Chagall, Marc Zaharovich	Couleurs de l'amour	Christie's	86 094	2018	75 000	1	(11 094)	-12,9
3	Weber, Max	Three Heads	Christie's	18 750	2016	12 500	3	(6 250)	-11,1
4	Tyshler Alexander Grigorievich	Kidnapping	Sotheby's	41 058	2012	13 669	7	(27 389)	-9,5
5	Chelishchev Pavel Fedorovich	Hide and seek	Sotheby's	23 282	2013	12 061	6	(11 221)	-8,0
6	Chagall, Marc Zaharovich	'ile Saint-Louis	Christie's	13 750	2015	9 353	4	(4 397)	-8,0
7	Chelishchev Pavel Fedorovich	New York Roofs	Christie's	4 971	2016	3 811	3	(1 160)	-7,8
8	Nemukhin Vladimir Nikolaevich	the Joker No. 5	Sotheby's	98 310	2008	19 298	11	(79 012)	-7,3
9	Pokhitonov Ivan Pavlovich	Interior with flower vase on the mantelpiece	Sotheby's	375 548	2007	64 325	12	(311 223)	-6,9
10	Drevin Alexander Davidovich	moor	Sotheby's	94 160	2008	23 811	11	(70 349)	-6,8

General data repeat sales, 2019:

• All the artists represented at the auction: 272;
• artists from the repeat sales: 38 (14% of the total number);
• of All re-sales: 66.

Review AI: 14% of Russian artists with the re-sale of the total number, — is a very modest figure. For comparison, according to The Sotheby's Mei Moses Indices, in the global scale of the total number of artists twice or more at auction were sold 56% of the authors. The number of repeat sales in 2019, one international artist — on average six. While the Russian authors — less than two such sales. However, note the difference in approach buyers of Russian art to a greater extent acquired in private collections, without calculating on resale (so-called emotional or social investment). While international collectors in recent decades, buying a piece of art, initially keeping in mind its financial performance.

Quantitative indicators of repeat sales, 2019:

• the Average cost of purchase: $283 тыс.;
• the Average price to sales: $308 тыс.;
• gross profit sellers: $1.69 million

Review AI: it is Important what gross profit sellers of Russian art (i.e. before deduction of taxes, fees and maintenance costs) — plus. A more detailed analysis shows that the average value of the sold items were not obtained due to several high-profile sales, and distributed to lots more-менее evenly.

the Average annual growth cost (CAGR) of repeat sales, 2019:

• the Average value CAGR: of 4.3%;
• Percentage of lots with a CAGR of ( ) of the total number: 52%;
• Percentage of lots with a CAGR of (–) of the total number: 47%;
• Percentage of lots with a CAGR of (0) of the total number: 2%.

Review AI: the Average annual growth of value of Russian art almost twice less than the average art-рынку (7.6 per cent). However, note that the study we took one in 2019, and today the market of Russian art has just started to recover after crisis period. A slight advantage of sales with the positive dynamics of the prices (52%) gives reason for cautious optimism. You should pay attention to the time of the execution of a previous transaction, and the holding period, what will be discussed below.

holding Periods for works resold in 2019:

• the Average period of tenure: 11 years;
• the Average holding period at a CAGR of ( ): 14 years;
• the Average holding period at a CAGR of (–): 9years;
• the Average holding period at a CAGR (0): 2 years.

Review AI: the Peak of the speculative market sales of Russian art occurred in 2007-2009, and today we see the consequences: the highest number of negative growth rates was purchased in this period. Possession more than 14 years overall, has positive indicators of final sales, because collectors have bought the work at appropriate market prices at the time. Positive gains in 2019 showed purchases made in 2015-2016: purchase at a discount to the market downturn always have investment potential.

Indicators auction houses, 2019:

• Share lots of repeat sales at Sotheby's: 45,5%;
• Share lots of repeat sales at Christie's: 55,5%;
• the Average CAGR Sotheby's: for 4.8%;
• the Average CAGR Christie's: 3,9%.

Review AI: the Dynamics of sales of Russian art in 2019 says the following: people no longer trust the sale of works of Christie's, but the best result was shown by Sotheby's. The difference is 20% in the CAGR rate — enough to say the following: Christie's better to work with sellers, Sotheby's — with buyers works.

table 3. Russian artists with the best rates CAGR, 2019

#	Name	CAGR, %
1	Lermontov Nadezhda Vladimirovna	38,2
2	Capezio Xenia Konradova	37,3
3	Jawlensky, Alexei G.	32,1
4	Zakharov Vadim Anisovich	26,2
5	Roerich Nikolai Konstantinovich	24,8
6	Glazunov Ilya Sergeevich	19,6
7	Guryanov Georgy	17,9
8	Vasily Kandinsky	13,7
9	Lempicka Tamara de	11,6
10	Chelishchev Pavel Fedorovich	10,5

Table 4. Russian artists with the worst performance CAGR, 2019

#	Name	CAGR, %
1	Weber, Max	-11,1
2	Larionov, Mikhail Fedorovich	-10,5
3	Tyshler Alexander Grigorievich	-9,5
4	Nemukhin Vladimir Nikolaevich	-7,3
5	Pokhitonov Ivan Pavlovich	-6,9
6	Drevin Alexander Davidovich	-6,8
7	Sychkov V. Fedotov	-6,7
8	Gerasimov, Alexander Mikhailovich	-6,4
9	Vinogradov Sergei Arsenievich	-6,2
10	Shishkin Ivan Ivanovich	-6,2

In conclusion, in US dollars price indicators at the time of the trades shown are based on sustainable hypothesis that the currency is the main currency savings collectors who buy Russian art abroad. Another important to understand the fact: data for one individual, 2019 may not serve as a basis for making informed investment decisions. However, this information can serve as a starting point for understanding market trends and independent analysis of individual results with our readers.

In the future AI plans to complement an existing database of auction results for subscribers a convenient tool for working with data re -sales.

Denys Belkevych, AI