How much time is "surviving" the picture to the next resale
ARTinvestment.RU   24 октября 2018

What is the payback period to be allocated for investment in the painting? How much time you need the picture to "otvisetsya"? And when it makes sense again to auction off to make money on the resale?

You probably noticed that the picture of the investment class it is customary to set without fuss. Usually takes many years before being bought for profit masterpiece again put up for auction. You can even talk about empirical schemes: bought at Sotheby's — 5-10 years held — have previstar on Kristis — to make a profit. Why do that? Below — opinion AI in the form of questions and answers.

Question: Why do we need to postpone the time of resale in a few years?

the Opinion of AI: For objective economic reasons. In General, when you are fighting a rare and necessary thing at auction, you most likely will buy it at top price border of the market, and most likely, even with the overpayment. Remember that you pay for the auction of around 20-30 % Commission. After all, the more "humane" rate buyer's premium of 12% on premium auctions valid from amounts of $2 000 000-4 000 000. And to $200,000 you're paying almost a third of the winning bid. However, it is not so bad. First-class things, masterpieces, tend to grow in price faster than any other works. But even with this, they need at least three years, and even longer to "digest" the overpayment and begin to bring profit to its owner.

Question: On the Russian market is often seen as a job, just bought at an auction, immediately assume to sell on the other. Between these events, sometimes, is less than a month? How do you explain this?

the Opinion of AI: a masterpieces do not. In other cases, the deliverers-спекулянты can act based on the fact that the auction for acceptance will not "break" thisthing databases of auction results. Because if the auction will see a very recent sale, it either will not take or suggest a lower reserve price. Why? It is not only the expected benefits. Just in this case, dramatically increases the risk of not sell at all. As the circle of real buyers of art in Russia is strikingly low. All auctions buy about the same collectors and dealers. Therefore, to offer the same people the same thing — strange and risky. In turn, naroda negatively affects the reputation of the auction: the less he sells, the less he bring. So in Russia run from the auction, the auction is not much sense. There are exceptions, but in General, the strategy is so-so.

Question: would it be Correct to assume that time in any case works for the investor? The longer you wait, the more expensive the art. That is the main thing — is to wait as long as necessary?

the Opinion of AI: According to the text above might give the impression that investment just-то need that patience. Say, bought, sit wait, and a few years will inevitably sell more. This is not always the case. Unfortunately, even greater "exposure period" is no guarantee of investment good luck. A long time only increases the chances of success. But in reality, can happen any crashing. For example, it may be revised for the worse the artist's place in art history, inappropriate happens the financial crisis, including sanctions, will be serious deterioration of the investment climate and the dramatic fall in consumer activity. Yes anything! And similar negatives easily outweigh any advantages of a long "ripening period". In other words, does not rule out the possibility that bought the picture ten years from now will drop by half. There is a risk. And not ephemeral. Just in a similar situation and found many of those who bought the Russian art in 2006 and decided to resell in 2016-м. Here they are — ten years. But in these 10 years happened two strong economic crisis from which the Russian art market has not recovered.

Question: Suppose time is a car you can afford to give the films "otvisetsya" at least ten, at least twenty years. In this case, it is better to invest?

the Opinion of AI: The best things artists international, not national values. World masterpieces, the "blue chips" art-рынка significantly less exposed to risks of price perturbations. We are talking about the best works of the first names of the art world, including artists of Russian origin. For example, paintings by Chagall, Kandinsky, Soutine, de Stael (the right things valuable periods) is not just well survived the crisis, but steadily increased in price all the time. Those who gave them longer "to otvisetsya" definitely not lost. These artists more reliably hold the test of time than Michelangelo and other artists of national importance (say the sixties).

However, what is said above, — is a conservative strategy. And follow her is to ignore the other great features. Remember the most expensive Basquiat, which in 2017 bought a Japanese collector for $110 500 000? About this picture it is known that in 1984 collectors Spiegel bought it for $19,000, which was then a lot of money, especially foryoung artist. Crazy risk. But in the end, after 33 years already their daughter sold the painting in 5 815 times more expensive than they were buying. For reliable de Stael or Soutine such a scenario is simply impossible. And potentially more risky contemporary artist — Yes.

Question: Back to the beginning: so how much time do you suggest to keep the picture between the resale?

the Opinion of AI: there is no Universal recipe. But if the owner lacks a clear strategy on exit from the investment, it is laid on the holding period of 5-10 years. In General, we must act according to the situation. It should feel and try to measure objectively. Changes happen quickly. If I see that fashion changes (and the artist too may go out of fashion), falling liquidity in the market or the economy shows no hope for improvement, you should not hide your head in the sand and struggling to endure 10 years to pursue a far-fetched strategy. Perhaps it will make sense to exit a trade early, with losses, but without catastrophic loss. Or on the contrary, to rely on Providence and to bequeath the art to the children, as did spouses Spiegel with his Basquiat.

Vladimir Bogdanov, AI