Analysis of volume sales of leading auction houses in the first half of 2020

• 

the Biannual ArtTactic report on the results of auction sales in the first six months of 2020 has traditionally touched upon the three leading auction houses — Christie's, Sotheby's and Phillips (in different years from different analysts constituting 30 % then 45% of the public market. In short, it is sufficient to read the data reflection pattern of global auction sales. — AI.). Unconventional in the report was that the term "semiannual" included seven months: unsure January under the sign of "Breccia" and the following six — awaiting the release from quarantine.

the Basic data are in the form of abstracts and tables, and then comment on the most interesting correlations that showed the report.

• the Total volume of auction sales Christie's, Sotheby's and Phillips in the first half of 2020 decreased by 49 %, to $2.88 billion In the first half of 2019, the amount was $5,47 billion.

• the Volume of auction sales exclusively online (that is, not the physical auction and online-телемостов with the auctioneer. — AI.), in the first half of 2020 increased by 497 % to $412 million In the first half of 2019, the volume of online-продаж was $69 million.

• the Drop in sales in the three leading auction houses was heterogeneous: at Christie's, it was -60% compared to last year, behind him are Phillips (-46,7 %) and Sotheby's (-37,6 %). It should be noted, and a difficult public market in 2019, following which the total volume of auction sales fell by 19% compared to the year 2018-м.

• In the distribution of sales among the three leading auction houses again-таки won Sotheby's: its share was 54.1 % of the total volume of the three leaders of the auction market (compared to 44.1% in 2019). The share of Christie's reached the level of 38.7 % (in 2019 — 49,2 %) - the Phillips — of 7.1 % (virtually unchanged: 6.8% in 2019). Competitive advantage Sotheby's, according to ArtTactic, has provided the best deals of the lots in the segment of art of impressionism and modernism, as well as a strong technological base to work with online-продажами.

• On the background of serious decline of sales in the segment of art of impressionism and modernism (-68 %), sales of postwar and contemporary art in monetary terms, was twice lower (-34 %). In the amount of sales of postwar and contemporary art on the first half of 2020 accounted for 52 % of international sales, Sotheby's, Christie's and Phillips together (compared to 40 % in the first half of 2019).

• the Market of art of the old masters were the least affected by the crisis: sales in this segment for the first half of 2020 decreased by only 22 %. The volume of online-продаж works of the old masters, in comparison with the same period of 2019, increased by 785 %. This clearly demonstrates that the old masters market, which was considered conservative in terms of collectors and major sales channels are also ripe for digital transformation, which is now experiencing global art-рынок.

• Sales in new-Йорке (more correctly, new-йоркскими offices auction houses. — AI.) dominate the global auction market: share of sales accounted for 40.8 % (in the first half of 2019 at the new-Йорк accounted for 50.2% of sales in money terms). Shareof London last year remained virtually unchanged: 26.6 percent. Among geographic regions, which are entrenched in the auction market during the period of quarantine, — Hong Kong (market share in 2020-м — 21.9 %, in 2019-м — 15.8% and 13.5% in 2018-м) and Paris (6.5% in 2020-м after 4.1% in 2019-м).

• the First six months of 2020 (or four month quarantine, whatever. — AI.) marked increase in financial guarantees auction houses and third parties (which would purchase the unsold lot at the lower boundary estimate. — AI.). So, mixed auction in June — July 2020, the amount of financial guarantees exceeded the average figures in recent years: art in the amount sold for $482,7 million, was backed by 413,7 million guarantees. Overall, nearly half (49.4 per cent) of the total number of lots had a financial guarantee — for 58.3 % of the total lower estimate and 68.1% of the total sales price (the hammer). Most of these guarantees (71,8 %) was provided by a third party that tells about the return of confidence of international buyers to the art market. Note that the ratio of guarantees was higher than on sales of postwar and contemporary art in new-Йорке in may 2019: then financial guarantees accounted for 48.4% of the lower estimate and 54.5 % of the total sales at the hammer price.

table 1. sales of art categories at auction at Sotheby's, Christie's and Phillips for the first half of 2019 and 2020

Category art	sales in I half of the year, $ mln		the Difference between the 2020 and 2019, %
	2019	2020
Old masters	139	109	-22
Impressionism and modernism	1 580	508	-68
post-war and contemporary art	2 272	1 504	-34
Asian art (including China)	445	129	-71
Jewelry and watches	444	247	-44
European art	53	45	-15
Other niche segments	731	333	-54
Total sales, $ mln	5 664	2 875	–49

table 2. sales art for the three international auction houses for the first half of 2018, 2019 and 2020

auction house	sales in I-м half, $ million
	2018	2019	2020
Sotheby's	2 900	2 500	1 560
Christie's	3 600	2 780	1 110
Phillips	518	384	205
Total sales, $ million	7 018	5 664	2 875

table 3. Total sales of art and volume online-продаж at auction at Sotheby's, Christie's and Phillips for the first half of 2019 and 2020

Category sales	sales in I half of the year, $ mln		the Difference between the 2020 and 2019, %
	2019	2020
Total sales, $ million	5 664	2 875	-49
Online-продажи, $ million	69,1	412,3	497

table 4. the Average price of lots sold at auction at Sotheby's, Christie's and Phillips for the first half of 2019 and 2020

the Average price of lots sold in the first half, $ thousand	January	February	March	April	May	June	July	the Average for the half year
2019	26,6	164,1	72,1	62,3	216,1	84,1	43,5	95,5
2020	89,3	195,2	36,1	15,1	21,2	83,8	214,9	93,7

table 5. Comparative figures the estimate and the hammer price on mixed auction Sotheby's, Christie's and Phillips for the first half of 2020

	January	February	March	April	May	June	July
The average estimate, $ million	122	531	120	40	128	742	980
the hammer Price, $ million	144	560	131	45	111	799	1 085
the Difference of the hammer price and the mean estimate, %	18,5	5,5	9,6	12,5	-13,3	7,7	10,7

Review AI: first of all, the ArtTactic report marked the end of the two vectors of speculative statements that were full of information space recent months: "it's bad, auction sales dropped by 97 %" and "Everything's fine, online-продажи has grown fivefold". We saw (and the one who can count saw before. — AI.), sales of the leading auction houses actually decreased, almost by half. With such a drop the market has experienced, whereas with pandemic met face to face for the first time. Against this background, the shortage in 49 %, insist, a very good figure for the period total (and has no historical precedents) of uncertainty. Throw in the collapse of the logistics, limit the range of customers to local (or those who agree to buy, pay the Deposit and wait for delivery or to send a private plane), — and we will get entrenched position new-Йорка, promoting Hong Kong and Paris and stagnation dependent on middle Eastern buyers of London.

the Growth of online-продаж, as you can see from the comparison in Table 3, have taken on themselves, only 14 % of the total volume of auction transactions, that is, in their "pure" form, without the auctioneer in the Studio, Internet is losing emotional interaction with the human factor. However, the old masters showed great spurt: increase in the volume of their sales through online-сделок one and a half times faster than the dynamics of all Internet-продаж together. That proves once again: the basis of investment attractiveness of art is no capitalization at the peak of the market, and its resilience during the crisis. But sustainability, as we know, is based on fast adaptation to new circumstances. In the case of the old masters — to online-сделкам.

Thetime — in evidence forecasts the March of the materials AI — price dynamics of sold lots was withheld Titanic auction houses with the buyer: the difference between the average hammer price in the first half in 2019 and 2020 is only 1.97 % (not in favour of a 2020-го). The total result of all sales (by hammer) exceeds the sum of the average estimate on average by 7.3 %, which once again confirms the work of auction houses as public regulators of supply and demand. The quarantine draws a completely new curve auction activity by month: traditionally shock-рекордный, may now shifted to July, turning the familiar-скучное summer intriguing.

How to behave on the curve and what calendar dates will remain in the final graph of the collector? We will know closer to the release of the ArtTactic report for the second half of 2020. While the same main conclusion: the current crisis has stabilized and became similar to usual, familiar to most people, a typical crisis.

it is Possible to open the champagne.

Denys Belkevych, AI