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Russian sales in London in June 2019. Forecast AI
ARTinvestment.RU   23 мая 2019

You'd be surprised, but this time I have a good feeling. I think that buying activity will be higher than last time. And the prices will probably surprise you. Why? This will be a couple of words at the end

But first, a few clarifications for those who read auction AI predictions for the first time. The following assessment AI — is not guessing, as a guide for pragmatic people. Our predictions —, it can be said, the vision of an adequate market price for a particular item in the current situation. Over every figure is thought not one knowledgeable person. It should be understood that any logic works only to a certain point. If anyone-то suddenly feel an urge to buy $ 100,000 of something that is really $ 10,000, then there's nothing it is impossible to foresee. And in the auction it happens. People have every right to spend your money the way you want. Especially in the art to significantly overpay for a good thing is not great sin. Anything can happen. But usually if you buy expensive masterpiece, in a few years (5, 15) he will "otvisetsya", "digest" admitted the overpayment and still one will be more expensive. Again, this is if we are talking about a masterpiece.

Christie's. Russian Art. 3 Jun 2019 year

Kuzma PETROV-ВОДКИН still life with lilacs. 1928
oil on Canvas. 80 × 65,4
evaluation of the auction: $1 300 000-2 000 000
Forecast AI: $4 500 000

Comment: This thing hooked not all of the experts, but the work is recognizable, vivid, written with love and-моему, quite personal. On the table favorite table cloth, envelopes (art historians suggest that this correspondence with the mother), as well as the number of the journal L'art Vivant with important software interview with the artist. Joy and sorrow, circle of life — in fact, it is vanitas, but instead of the skull in the center of the glass with a branch of lilac. Works Petrov-Водкина such a high-class never before appeared at auction. I feel soon we will again rewrite rating the most expensive works of Russian artists. The old record Petrov-Водкин — "still life. Apples and eggs" — was sold in 2012 for $3 636 400. But the current three times larger and five times better. Estimate of "still life with lilac" ($1 300 000) is written explicitly only to serious collectors appetite. I think in the trading price will exceed $4 000 000. Still life 1928 has a clear origin, an impressive exhibition history (was even at the Venice Biennale in 1932) and many times reproduced in catalogues and art publications. Oh, and this still life is exemplary from the point of view of market prospects for colors. After all, blue and red, according to a recent study, make the painting more expensive.

Ivan SHISHKIN Siverskiy. 1896
oil on Canvas. 60,2 × 50,1
Christie's: $260 000-390 000
Forecast AI: $300 000

Comment: "Siverskiy" (so-called country place in 70 km from St. Petersburg) — exemplary finished work, with carefully drawn periphery. The thing is not just a characteristic, but exactly what I love Shishkin's collectors. Size small but quite comfortable, 50 × 60. And the landscape is not signed with initials, and full name. What can we say about the estimate? $260 000-390 000 — it is not as tempting as Petrova-Водкина. Expensive. I think that the end result is where-то in the middle, in the region of $300 000. At least in Moscow, "Siverskiy" would cost approximately.

Boris GRIGORIEV Le Pouliguen. 1923
oil on Canvas. 81,5 × 64,3
Christie's: $450 000-710 000
Forecast AI: $900 000

Comment: Le Pouliguen from the title of the portrait Grigoriev — iscoastal town in French Brittany, where he loved to relax and work Russian artist. The painting depicts the wife of a local fisherman with a baby on one arm and a toy-мобилем to another. The woman in traditional headdress, part of the folk costume of Bratunac. All of this work permeated with the spirit of antiquity, the middle ages, and respect for tradition that is so liked Grigoriev in the fishing towns of Brittany. The painting has an interesting provenance. More precisely, the hypothesis concerning its existence, which have to prove to the new owners. In the surviving records Grigorieva art historians found indirect evidence that "Le Pouliguen" along with another picture of the Breton cycle was purchased in the collection of Charles Merillon, the founder of the investment Bank, which now bears the name of Meryll Lynch. Christie's focuses buyers portrait $450 000-710 000. Less pleasant portraits of the Breton cycle around so early and sold. But, given the special artistic merits of the painting and the possible confirmation of the story of legendary banker, I suppose that will go up to $900 000. Still remember that "fat" 2007 Grigor picture "Marseille prostitute" of the same size was sold for $1 308 500. Forgive me, Breton fisherwoman for such a comparison.

Ivan KULIKOV Peasant girl. 1913
oil on Canvas. 125,7 × 90,5
Christie's: $77 000-103 000
Forecast AI: $80 000

Comment: a Talented student of Ilya Repin himself is not among the first names of Russian classics. But it was too sweet this specific thing. In 2010, she (however, at that time a "Peasant girl" was called "wild flowers") set a record price for art of Ivan Kulikov on "the Dorotheum" — almost $180 000. This time estimate is 2-3 times more modest: $77 000-103 000. In General correct. Work great, a meter and a quarter tall. Obvious academic level. And I feel that on the painting worked great connoisseur of ancient and folk costumes. The picture will certainly be pleasing to the eye. Here only the future owner will have every time to answer the questions, who sandpipers and what is its place in the history of art. It's not so bad. Even more interesting. However wondrous exceeded the estimate I do not expect. Forecast: $80 000.

Dmitry KRASNOPEVTSEV still life. 1983
oil on Canvas. 66 × 54
Christie's: $45 000-52 000
Forecast AI: $45 000

Comment: the work Itself, just select: valuable time, the main theme of the metaphysical still-life, convenient size (66 × 54). But most of all I liked the auction description of this item: two links to page two directories Alexander Ushakov (in paperback in three volumes), which published this work. All it is. And in this case it's the perfect description: actual, adequate, relieving the main questions for the prepared buyer, "armor". Without this everything else is just "poetry", meaning that he will definitely have to conduct more research to confirm authenticity. Another question — price. In Moscow the current market assessment of Christie's big. In Russia, the work of this class would cost fifteen thousand cheaper. In short, the estimate for the limit. However that will still buy, I have no doubt. The main motivation auctions worldwidebuyers are largely based not on pragmatism and economy, and the credibility of the place and the comfort of the transaction. There is comfort at the highest level. Therefore be surprised that in London our painters often purchase much more expensive than in Moscow for a long time I do not have. And adjusted for this factor, my prediction all-таки $45 000 and not not sold.

Konstantin KOROVIN: Grand Boulevard, Richelieu — Drouot. 1935
oil on Canvas. 32,7 × 40,8
Christie's: $26 000-39 000
Forecast AI: $28 000

Comment: Russian impressionist Konstantin Korovin is rightly considered one of the most counterfeited Russian Parisians. So buy things calmer in such prestigious places that you trust. And then there's the price is right. "Grand Boulevard, Richelieu — Druo" (this is the metro hub in Paris), was assessed by specialists at Christie's in the range of $26 000-39 000. Yes, the size is too small: 32,7 × 40,8. But these things are about and are worth $25 000-30 000. So my prediction: closer to the lower boundary estimeyta — such as, $28 000.

Dmitry Plavinsky. Composition with a bull's hide. 1989
mixed media on Canvas. 80,6 × 120
Christie's: $26 000-32 000
Forecast AI: $50 000

Comment: "Composition with a bull's skin" famous sixties Dmitry Plavinsky — is large (more than a meter) spectacular job. Canvas a lot, I traveled to America, not once exhibited, reproduced in the exhibition catalogue Silent Screams from the Russian Underground ("the Silent cry of the Russian underground") 1995. It is a pity that in Russia not long ago it was big show Plavinsky. Tired of waiting. And the work itself is excellent, in the open market picture with this theme and of such quality to meet not too easy. The Museum level. And the rating is quite attractive. I think that estimate will be exceeded by half and the price reaches $50 000.

Oscar RABIN Ambulance in Pryluky. 1967
oil on Canvas. 89,9 × 109,5
Christie's: $25 000-40 000
Forecast AI: $30 000-35 000

Comment: Meter Rabin, the most valuable doemigratsionnogo period, 1967. Isn't it great? In Russia, for $25 000 this with hands would tear off. And to $30 000 to the buyer to go quite reasonable. If it is to keep in mind the situation on the market today. And from the point of view of value to the collection, and for the future, you can afford to pay more. My prediction: $30 000-35 000. Oscar Rabin — is one of the most important and popular artists of post-war non-art, the leader of the "Lianozovsky group" of like-minded people, the backbone of which were Kropivnitsky, Vladimir Nemukhin, Nikolai Vechtomov and others. Oskar Rabin was an organiser and active participant of the dispersed exhibition in Belyaevo in 1974, known in history as the "bulldozer exhibition". One of the brightest participants of the "bulldozer", which at the crucial moment returned to the spirit of other artists were "Lianozovo" Hope Wales — ally of Rabin. She died early, at age 31, works. one of the paintings, written in the year before death, also to be sold now at Christie's. And sold it, most likely, will not. Plot — "Moscow 1977" — gift. And asked for her $25 000-40 000. It is clear that this is a budget for the best works of nonconformists of the first row, the same Rabin. Yeah, I remember how Wales gave a hundred thousand dollars about 10 years ago. But today, and for this particular job my prediction — not sold.

Konstantin SOMOV Twilight.Evening landscape with lilac Bush on the right. 1921
oil on Canvas. 18 × 26,2
Christie's: $15 000-23 000
Forecast AI: $80 000

Comment: "Twilight. Evening landscape with lilac Bush to the right" is not a watercolor, a little oil, 18 × 26,2. Decorative interior thing, without people, without a plot, but unmistakably recognizable. At the peak of the market, so in the year 2007-м, oil Somova with a side of 50-70 cm were able to cost $2 000 000-5 000 000. The record was set at around $7 332 000 in 2007 and, by the way, at Christie's. So many seem strange that the picture, even in 4-5 times less, asking not hundreds of thousands of dollars, and only $15 000-23 000. What has changed for Luba over the years? Nothing wrong just did not happen. On the contrary. After transcribing and publishing the diaries Constantine A. his life and work were interested in an even wider group of art lovers. Another thing is that for 10 years has radically changed the economic situation that is not taken into account by the owners and auctioneers. Resulting in quite a lot of art (mostly graphic) was overvalued, which had a negative effect on sales statistics. Many things remained unsold. But of course, $15 000-23 000 for even a small, but painting Luba — paradoxical price. It is several times below the market. We can only guess what is behind it. So, last year in London was exposed Catfish almost the same size and close to a year with the lower estimate in the region of $50 000. And the thing has remained unsold. I can assume that seeing someone else's experience, Christie's decided not to tempt fate and "halve" estimate for your lot. However, I think this time it will be all the better and the landscape with lilacs will go for $80 000 or more.

Alexander GERASIMOV. Near City Council. 1947
Paper, gouache, watercolor, pencil. 50,8 × 64,2
Christie's: $90 000-115 000
Forecast AI: $170 000

Comment: Alexander Gerasimov — Stalinist academician, four times winner of the Stalin prize and the first President of the USSR Academy of arts. Work looks like an impressionist painting, but in fact it's graphics — gouache, watercolor, pencil. In 1947, Gerasimov painted a cycle of urban landscapes with historic buildings in honor 800-летия Moscow. "Gorky street" in 2014 went to auction at Sotheby's for $165,000. And the current figure should not be cheaper. Can you guess why? Yes, it's Tver, 13 — the Golitsyn house, once the residence of the Moscow General-губернатора, and now the city hall of Moscow. I suppose that for such a symbolic location (perspective and for gift too) will unfold serious struggle. Forecast: $170 000.

What can you say about the Christie's catalog as a whole? The main funds and the main glory at Christie's collect a few masterpieces. Two weeks later, all conversations are just that about Petrov-Водкине. About Gerasimova. Works price range, relatively speaking, a $100,000 at Christie's Russian sales are very few, only 11. Given that some put in this class in advance, at a stretch, it remains popular things on the fingers. But collectors will have a place to roam, with a budget of $40 000 plus-минус. Let the money are available works mostly artists are not first row, but work good and very good level. For example, at $38 000-64 000 estimatedmeter winter landscape by Ivan Schulze, and $26 000-32 000 the auction was evaluated the big "Hero" Constantine Veselova. From the first row for that kind of money can try to buy it small "Sunflowers" by Boris Grigoriev (estimate is also $26 000-32 000). The Outlook: in estimeyta, closer to the lower boundary. And if I can buy for the money, these works will even retain the potential for further relatively quick resale. View.

Sotheby's. Russian Pictures. 4 Jun 2019

Mikhail LARIONOV still life. Presumably 1911
oil on Canvas. 102 × 100
Estimate at Sotheby's: $1 270 000-1 905 000
Forecast AI: $5 000 000

Comment: As in the case of Christie's, top-лот Sotheby's is not caused unanimous delight from the experts. But I liked it. I think that after June 4, 2019, we will again have to rewrite the ranking of the most expensive Russian artists. On the eve of — from-за Petrova-Водкина. And the next day — from-за that Larionov. In General, the Russian art-рынка a strange sense of humor. One of the main innovators of our art, the artist of Russian avant-garde, inventor of Luisma and a large destroyer of the foundations, Larionov still has not been presented even in the top twenty most expensive Russian authors. The only explanation: in the world trading just as long as there were no works of high class. Maybe only once, 12 years ago, when "still life with jug and icon" was sold at Sotheby's for $4 464 000. And now meter Fauvist Larionov — valuable Russian doemigratsionnogo period (probably 1911) with impeccable provenance, with a certificate of authenticity from Alexandra Tomilina-Ларионовой — is exposed with an upper estimate of $1 905 000. Sotheby's cautious. My prediction: $5 000 000. Although colleagues believe that, in the mind, no more than $2 000 000. This in any case is not enough to enter the top ten of Russian art ("the entrance ticket" it is worth more than 10 million), but the result is already. In all honesty, this should cost even more, not the times.

Ivan SHISHKIN Pine. 1895
oil on Cardboard. 60,5 × 34,5
Estimate at Sotheby's: $63 500-88 900
Forecast AI: $230 000-250 000

Comment: Cardboard Sosna Ivan Shishkin was one of the few Russian works, Sotheby's which brought in the pre-show in Moscow. The photo in the online catalog it looks brighter than in real life. But alive this landscape is very good. Concise, vivid, complete, detailed, busy. Shishkin in Moscow not a rarity. That's just in the Arena, on the interior RA&AF, sold ten of his paintings, sometimes very good in the region of $200 000 plus or minus. But this landscape is, to my taste, the best. And Sotheby's, of course, germanicae a valuation of $63 500-88 900. Real forecast the departure of two-три times higher. Where-нибудь $230 000. And then $250 000. At the area "Pine" is less (not by much, but less) than the picture "Siverskiy" at Christie's, which will be sold the day before. But choosing between the two, I'd rather rather the variant of Sotheby's

Ivan AIVAZOVSKY Coastal chapel moonlit night. 1851
oil on Canvas. 58 × 72
Estimate at Sotheby's: $190 500-254 000
Forecast AI: $300 000-320 000

Comment: When they say that Sotheby's is a queue of those wishing to sell Aivazovsky, — is not a metaphor. Russian marine painter in recent years presented at the auction, as they say, in the range, for every taste andwallet. There are darling under a million dollars, and medium, and cheaper. But this is one case where cheaper does not mean worse, but just the opposite. I liked night Aivazovsky "Coastal chapel moonlit night" in 1851, 58 × 72. It's gorgeous. Atmospheric, peaceful, without drama plot complications. Sotheby's is asking $190 500-254 000. And sell, I think, for $300 000-320 000. It will be quite justified.

Vasily POLENOV's the River Oyat. 1893
oil on Canvas. 46 × 92
Estimate at Sotheby's: $571 500-812 800
Forecast AI: $600 000

Comment: This is a re-sale. The painting "the River Oyat" bought at Sotheby's 11 years ago, in 2008-м. And then paid for it $1 385 000. Now the estimate is set 2-3 times lower, you know why. And even that is rather high. Work among the wonderful: meter size, favorite inspirational story, a high level of painting. Views of the Oyat — is the memories of childhood, on the river stood the manor house of the parents of the Polenov Inocence, where he spent happy years. There are several versions of this composition. The big canvas is in the Krasnodar regional Museum named after F. A. Kovalenko, and even a few — at the Museum-заповеднике Vasily Polenov of Tula region. If we proceed from the market situation, the logs are not much of a gap in the market. Each antique shop or fair you can meet strong things. Usually a little smaller and range up to $300 000. In favor sotbisovsky work speaks to the exceptional quality, size, and the museums story. With this in mind I would expect care in the area of the initial estimate of $600 000. But in Moscow, the Polenov such a class would cost about $450 000.

Konstantin MAKOVSKY boyar
oil on Canvas. 68 × 56
Estimate at Sotheby's: $102 000-152 000
Forecast AI: $300 000

six Months ago, a two-meter luxury the genre "the Game of hide and seek" by Konstantin Makovsky has set an auction record for the artist — $5 459 575. Also at Sotheby's, by the way. "Boyarynya", on the contrary, a mansion is not necessary. It has a comfortable size (68 × 56) and the most popular among collectors theme — woman portrait in a luxurious historical costume, embroidered with pearls. Exorbitant excess of the estimate, I expect, but twice — easily. Forecast: $300 000.

Georgy NISSKY Airfield. 1965 (?)
oil on Canvas. 45 × 100,5
Estimate at Sotheby's: $76 200-101 600
Forecast AI: $500 000

Comment: "the Airfield" Nyssa is among the three best works in the entire auction history of the artist. This canvas has everything that I love and appreciate of Nyssa. And the size is good, the meter horizontally. Five years ago the same class, but one and a half times the big picture "Over the snow" was sold for almost $ 3 million, and later "In the way" — almost a million. However that was a special moment when the buyer of Nyssa class of the Museum was necessary at any cost. Now such an acute situation there, so it is unlikely that the bill will go to a million. However, it is likely a multiple excess of estimate, and the movement to the mark $500 000.

WEISBERG tanagras still life with a statuette. 1976
oil on Canvas. 53 × 60
Estimate at Sotheby's: $38 100-63 500
Forecast AI: $65 000

Review: the artist in Russia there formed a circle of collectors who act decisively and contagious. They are happy to share with the publicinformation about their acquisitions, exhibitions. And not for bragging rights. Artist do. And it is always a big plus. As a result, the market of paintings of the sixties of Weisberg — "Russian Morandi" — liquid, brisk and not very volatile. "Still life with statuette tanagras" — is working investment class: small (53 × 60), valuable period (1976), on the main subject (white on white). In 2008 she was sold at Sotheby's and went for $144 500. That was the peak. Now average market prices for the painting of the artist of this level and size — is $50 000 plus-минус. At the upcoming Sotheby's auction will be more of a "plus", therefore, forecast — $65 000.

Mikhail SHVARTSMAN was the Wine of astonishment. 1977
Board, tempera, mixed media. 132 × 102
Estimate at Sotheby's: $63 500-88 900
Forecast AI: $135 000

Comment: "the Wine of astonishment" Mikhail Shvartsman, whatever stamp it may sound, — is the best hieratic in the history of the auction. "Ardent eye", sold in 2007 for $347 000, taken out of the brackets: there is a different story and "the Costakis collection" in history. A "Wine of astonishment" is an abstraction-иература, Burgundy colors, bright (which is rare), the thirty meter vertical — spectacular thing. I repeat: the best of all that was at auction. That's a plus. Minus is that Schwartzman — unsociable loner in life, almost do not sell their works, — today and remains a dedicated artist. His name-прежнему is not as famous as the names Rabin, Zverev, Yakovlev. But for knowledgeable people of his hieratures are among the most coveted and important works for an upscale collection of the sixties. Shvartsman's works rarely appear at auction, one-два times a year. A year ago at Sotheby's was a misfire: the Board of the same size with the lower estimate of $67 000 has not found its buyer. But the work greatly inferior to the present, was not so bright and showy. Therefore, despite the past failure, this time I expected to exceed the estimate times in half — to $135 000.

that's all For now. The next day after Sotheby's, 5 June 2019, their trades The Russian Sale Bonhams will hold. There are, however, masterpieces are not to roam, but the interesting thing there is — for example, for those who are well versed in the sixties. The key word here — understands. In particular, six-foot canvas of Oleg Tselkova ($70 000-83 000). However much more interesting is another work Tselkova — skull with candles 1967 with the dedication "my Wife Yevtushenko". It is small, estimated at $38 000-64 000. But this is a fight. Where-нибудь up to $50,000. Will be at Bonhams painting and of schedule Ernst Unknown. Almost six-foot acrylic on canvas with the lower estimate of $13 000 can be considered. Catalog a portrait of Vladimir Pyatnitsky, Anatoly Zverev brush ($10 000-13 000) canvas Vladimir Pyatnitsky for $13 000-15 000. I can assume that Russian buying in London, fifteen thousand dollars — is another area of emotional purchases. When you buy just because you like, without regard for money. But looking at the estimate, I wouldn't say that as-то cheap. But Bonhams was previously famous for tempting starting prices. Experienced people managed to buy some things there very profitable. But this time (and last too) is nothing attractive on the eyes I have not got.And often contrary.

Finally, as promised a good feeling. Yes, I think this time the auction will end on a high note: high activity, with records, any better than last time. There is some circumstantial condition. The fact that the Russian economy improvements are seen, and most of the population is getting heavier, does not mean that the "chinetov and ultramagnetic" too bad and there is a growing sense of alarm, followed by a dramatic change in the structure of the prestigious consumption. Exactly the opposite. Yes, the market of masterpieces from growing on the trail came the crazy money. And it is certainly not correlated with the economy of ordinary households. But the positive background is important. And von today — is a high oil, switch conflict focus from Russia to China, well, bad-бедно beginning of a-то dialogue with the "overseas partners". Recently spoke with financiers, tried to understand their moods — normal, as it turned out, no one is afraid of big shocks. The type of tougher sanctions is not expected, soft and learned to adapt quickly. Whether they were sincere? It seemed to me that, Yes. That is what we can cut in the ban on the purchase of oil, nobody really believes. And once the financiers and bankers hold the depression, then customers will odotusten, a meet the summer in good mood, and then what could not buy art in June?

and correctly. Especially when the auctions are put in such an attractive estimate.

before the auction Time left for another two weeks. And if anyone is interested in predictions of AI's other works, then ask questions on the forum in a special topic "Russian auction 3-5 June 2019. The opinions and predictions". Will try and respond as much.

Sellers and buyers — luck! Viewers — interesting show!

Like art, you start to understand it and buy!

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