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"Russian auctions" in London. How justified our predictions
ARTinvestment.RU   08 июня 2017

In London, leading the auction house concluded a week of "Russian auction". Long before it began ARTinvestment.RU published a price forecast for Christie's, Sotheby's and Bonhams. And that's how did not match our expectations with reality

Posted earlier forecast ARTinvestment.RU originally was not "guessing," but rather a summary of rational expectations. My head was working conditional formula: reasonable price for the current market plus the London premium for the prestige and service. The authors of the forecast have assumed that the bout will be rare. As-то quite so ostentatiously overspend people will not. And diminished random people among the buyers. Now after a deal prices and keep in mind the theoretical value of such works in Moscow (and Moscow still cheaper). Yes, visitors of the Russian trade is morally ready to charge "for London": no problems with the export, exclusive, service, warranty, provenance for auctions. But they are willing to pay tens, not hundreds of percent as 10 years ago. I think that this time it is logical to expect the prices are about 25-50% higher than in Moscow — not more.

I'll tell you that in reality many did not agree. Contrary to expectations, the prices of some selected lots significantly exceeded reasonable (from our point of view). Sometimes several times. Why people are so overpaid — question without an answer. Definitely not a business. It turns out that buying for the sake of fun. In any case, it is better than leaving money in a casino.

Okay, nothing to do — read, as this time went by the prices. And Yes, except things from the forecast in this report, we added other interesting items with their prices. Let this not discourage you.

Start with Russian Christie's auction, which took place one day, Monday 5. In the catalog were 293 lot of painting, drawing and DPI. Total revenues across all categories — $6.5 million. we are mainly interested in works of art that were collected in the first 106 lots. In EVERY string of sold 79, or 74.5 %, of the lots. A little auction house in Russia can boast such a percentage of sales.

"portrait of a boy" by Boris Grigoriev was much more desirable for collectors lot than we expected. Estimate exceeded twice — with $161 million average estimate to $330 thousand

drawing "Moscow" Leon Bakst was sold. But, based on the result, including Commission Buyer's Premium, costume design for "Moscow" was sold at the start. And besides, the new owners found four more theatrical sketch Bakst (out of seven offered). With a sudden "shot" sketch of a costume Theban king CREON for the production of "Antigone". Lot exceeded estimate at least three times (estimate $200 128 500-154; the result of $484 822) and became the most expensive lot of the auction Christie's.

the Price of watercolor Konstantin Somov "Morning" also rose much higher than the estimate: with the launch of $72 thousand a lot reached $361 million (including Commission). Others to unexpectedly good sales is attributed the care of wooden sculptures of Stepan Erzya "Female head" for $of 144.6 million at a valuation of $25,7–38.5 thousand and the sale of the canvas "Seated Nude" Georgy Artemov for $152,71 thousand at estimé $38,55–64,25 thousand

Nonconformists, contrary to our expectations, made more modest. For "the Church" Dmitry Plavinsky, gave $32 million, within the estimate of $of 25.76–38.64 thousand And abstraction Lydia Masterkova made a final bid even higher, but only slightly — a result of $25.7 thousand including the fee (starting from $10.3 thousand). And in addition, have found new owners Zverev's works, Sitnikova, Nemukhin, Weisberg, Yakovlev and Novikov.

Tuesday 6 Jun, was sold out a much more powerful directory of Russian art from Sotheby's. A selection of paintings and drawings of the 201 lots sold at 61,1 % (with the hammer went lot 123). Total revenue of the auction of fine art Sotheby's — $12.7 million And another where-то $2.9 million managed to earn LRMC auction, held on the same day.

Top-лотами of the Sotheby's auction were two paintings of Isaac Levitan. Both slightly exceeded the level of $1 million (based on the Buyer's Premium). But at the same time b lesego format landscape "Summer" was sold below the minimum estimate of $1.24–1.8 million (as we expected), and more harandCherny landscape "Overgrown pond", though it was less than half, but left for the same $1.17 million including Commission.

So our favourite "Forest landscape" Constantine kryzhitskogo appreciated and collectors. The hammer price exceeded the estimate: the result of $290,5 thousand at estimé $99,3–149 thousand, We thought it would be higher than the estimate, but not so. Well, let's consider the vector of guessed.

the Story about the success of works by Ivan Aivazovsky we will start with a seascape of Odessa, 1868. This work exceeded the estimate by half: the result of a $414,6 million with the estimate of $155,1–232,65 thousand actually, of the seven exhibited works at the auction Aivazovsky buyers found six. What we wanted to prove. With adequate assessment there will always be willing. Our forecast for the "Landscape in moonlight" as a whole justified: the work went to the upper bound estimate — for $of 234.2 thousand All the other Aivazovska also went within or just above estimate.

Successfully sold two works by Konstantin Yuon. The picture "the Kremlin at night on the eve of the coronation of Tsar Mikhail Fedorovich" was written shortly after the completion of the stage scenery for the Opera "Boris Godunov" for Diaghilev's seasons in Paris. But that is a separate, finished paintings, in which Huon put his knowledge to the architecture of the Kremlin and Russian history. Work purchased for $631,7 thousand, much higher than the estimate of $232,65–323,1 thousand Second Huon — winter landscape "Beautiful day. Izmailovo" — went for $414,57 million with the estimate of $155,1–232,65 thousand Another lot of the top ten — on canvas of Peter Konchalovsky's "bathers" (author's title – "Willow"). The work exceeded the estimate by half and went for $631,7 thousand

Canvas Oscar Rabin, as we predicted, went above estimate, but within reason — for $30.7 thousand (estimate $14,9–22,3 thousand). Early Zverev's "Winter landscape with horse" (oil on paper) including Commission sold for $6,46 thousand (forecast AI — $5 million). Both, we assume, right.

Two white still life of Weisberg (both with an estimate of $37,2–62,1 thousand) became an ornament of a string of non-conformists. "Still life with cubes and ball" kept within the rating, it was bought at the upper limit of the estimate for $62 thousand, "still life with cubes and cylinders", which we predicted care of within the estimate for $50 thousand, in fact, exceeded the estimate by three times (the result of — about $170 thousand). I do not guess. Weisberg, of course, a favorite of collectors, but we did not expect that he will unfold such a battle.

figure Kustodiev "Dasha, the merchant's wife" has reached the price of $80 million, which, in principle, not so surprising, given the high quality watercolors and Chaliapin provenance. And graphic work of Lyubov Popova, in contrast, remained without a single bid (we assumed that he would leave within the estimate).

the Last dates but not least was the auction of Russian art Bonhams on June 7. Collection Bonhams in scope and quality FROM-стринга this year can be compared with the selection of Christie's. Of the 78 lots of painting and drawing is gone 51 (65 %).

Painting by Russian painter Andrey Ryabushkin "the village street" sold for top estimate — for $25.8 million including the fee of the auction house. We assumed that will not leave or, in extreme cases, leave to start. But who the-то much wanted. Suddenly.

the same bit is probably the bit when I sold the "Hunt" stelletsky. Price start from $129 thousand came to $331 thousand, the Result was as in those "old days", which commemorated the good word in our forecast (we modestly hoped for care of $160 thousand at best). And by the way, the other three works by Dmitry stelletsky, too, have found new owners. What can be said about the beautiful "Winter scene" of Stepan Kolesnikov. The estimate of $9-12,9 thousand was for the collectors prohibitive. Yes, as-то at Bonhams hits this time around very little. The auction went much better than we expected, — so happy.

In summary it should be noted that this time the projections we somewhat overestimated the likely success of the sixties and underestimated the struggle for the Russian classics. About the reasons we still think. But in General, this situation is weakly correlated with what we observed in the domestic auction market in Russia. More precisely, then do the opposite. The organizers of the London "Russian auction," congratulations on your success. Well the forecast... some predictions and be wrong it is nice.

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