What progress since the beginning of the year? How has the buying activity? What is for sale? Is there any improvement in the situation? Summing up the preliminary results

Last year we finished with an unexpected increase. By the end of 2016-го buying activity has increased: the average share of lots sold increased from 35 % (2015) to 44 % (2016). Annual sales volume on the auction market increased from $4 600 000 to $7 000 000 in terms of rubles. Last year's optimistic figures had some hope: maybe in 2017-м all better?

And now completes the first quarter of 2017-го. In the rest of the week will have several auctions ("Scoop," "KABINET" and "Nikita"). There will be sold about 500 lots EVERY segment, including items with a high estimate. So while we can draw only preliminary results for three months. And final numbers then do the update.

thus, the volume of auction sales in EVERY segment for the first quarter of 2017 is $1 085 000 (– 44% in the first quarter of 2016). the average percentage of lots sold, according to preliminary results of the first quarter, was 42 % (in the corresponding period in 2016 this proportion was 39 %). That is, we fix a symbolic increase in buying activity. If he were bigger, it would be possible to predict the price increase in six months. And — is unlikely. These figures do not contradict my personal observations of our specialists of the Auction: the money from customers no more and deal with art are no better than the year before.

• Dynamics of the index of consumer activity ARTIMXba-LOCAL the domestic auction market for the period 2005-2017 gg
  Source: artinvestment.ru

Top-10 auction results in the auction market of Russia in the first quarter of 2017

№ p/p	the Artist	Title	Price, $
1	GERASIMOV, Alexander Mikhailovich	a Bouquet of lilacs	62 815
2	KOMAR Vitaly Anatolievich	untitled	48 732
3	the RABINE Oscar Yakovlevich	10 cents in Priluki	26 485
4	VERESHCHAGIN, Vasily Vasilyevich	In The Himalayas. (Trip to India)	20 880
5	MIRONENKO, Sergei I.	66-й day	16 950
6	FALK Robert Rafailovich	Nude Portrait	16 562
7	TYSHLER Alexander G.	angel with dove	15 210
8	TYSHLER Alexander G.	Flying angel	15 047
9	Grisha BRUSKIN	Metamorphosis I	11 653
10	VESELOV Konstantin Aleksandrovich	Young family on the Amalfi	11 340

mind blowing sales in the first quarter on the Russian auction market were recorded. The level of $100 000 not crossed neither one work. The most expensive painting of the beginning of the year — "lilac Bouquet" of socialist realist Alexander Gerasimov — was worth about $63 000. In the list of the most expensive works 1-го quarter, more than half— works of the sixties (Vitaly Komar, Oscar Rabin, Grisha Bruskin) and their forerunners (Robert Falk, Alexander Tyshler). This area is really about three years is the most popular among collectors. Included in the top two graphic works (Falk and Grisha Bruskin), the rest — painting. Oh, and not to forget to praise: 4 out of 10 of the most expensive works of the first quarter was sold at our Auction AI.

• Vasily VERESHCHAGIN IN the Himalayas (From India)oil on Canvas. 38,7 × 29,2
  AI Auction. 24.02.2017
  Sale price: 1 200 000 RUB 4-е place in the top-10 auction results Russian market in the first quarter of 2017 artinvestment.ru
• Alexander Tyshler angel with dove. 1972oil on Canvas. 39,5 x 27,5
  AI Auction. 10.02.2017
  Selling price: 900 000 RUB 7-е place in the top-10 auction results Russian market in the first quarter of 2017 artinvestment.ru

the General conclusion at the domestic auction market? Hopes for an improvement in the market situation this year is not justified. Precursors what the-то boom in the Russian art market is still no. Only hope is the growing number of dealer purchases. This indirectly suggests that the professional market is already considered the best prices: below you will not fall or will not fall much.

Probably noticeable increase in market values in 2016, was linked all-таки with natural recovery after a very strong decline of the Crimean events. We remember that before the sanctions our auction market was three times more. Now, at the beginning of 2017, the recovery has slowed down, or stopped.

on the other hand, to dramatize the situation and to draw far-reaching conclusions while it is not necessary. The difference in quarterly performance over the years not so great. And there are still nine months of work. Will catch up? And that, and suddenly!

All of what we have discussed above were focused on the domestic auction market Russian art. Who-то ask: maybe this is just the whole point? Maybe only in Russia is so mediocre, and in the West Russian art sold much better?

according to our figures, in the West, the Russian sold better. But not much. The sanctions crisis "squandered" the price of Russian art in the world, ruining the mood of the people with money. Everything else, the crisis was superimposed on a systematic revision of prices for Russian art. At the time, oil money drove them sometimes just to an inadequate height, and now the market is painfully coming to. It is not surprising that prices for Aivazovsky at auction in London for the last five years has decreased three times. It is rather a process of healing and the search for sustainable equilibrium.

show That the indicators of Russian art at international auctions in the first quarter? First: buying activity practically has not changed. Indexes-RUS-WORLD shows that, on average, sold 51% of lots of Russian (and last year 52 %, it means that the change is insignificant).

• Buying activity in the struggle for Russian art auctions in the world has not changed much since 2011. The world average buy 50-52% lots of RussiansSource: artinvestment.ru

In turn , the price index of Russian art ARTIMX-RUS on the worldthe auctions in the first quarter has not changed at all. As 136 points at the end of 2016, and remain 136 in the first quarter. In other words, $136 invested in Russian art at the beginning of 2017, the end of March conditionally transformed into the same $136. Symbolic other: the first time 2012 recorded a decline of prices in the global auction market for Russian art. Too, it is a good sign, right?

• In the first quarter, the price index of Russian art at international auctions has not changed. ARTIMX-RUS for the first time since 2012, showed no falling artinvestment.ru

Finally, the global conclusion to which we are pushing all the figures, graphics and signs: we need to stop waiting for a change in the market. It is unlikely in the foreseeable future, it will be much better or much worse. Rather, it will be exactly as it is now, and for years. This means that there is no big reason to postpone the decision for later. Whether buying or selling. The imminent changes are expected. So it is better to calm down, stop fussing but to gain and begin to live in the "here and now".

Vladimir Bogdanov, AI

to Independently monitor changes in consumer activity and the dynamics of price indexes will help you our ARTIMX graphics. Most of them are available to all site visitors free of charge.