Forbes, you're wrong
ARTinvestment.RU 03 ноября 2016
The contemporary art market is growing at 20-30 % per year? Alas, but why would it? Of course, as important as ever to remain optimistic. But the conclusions in the article the respected publication too strongly disagree with the auction statistics
About the fact that the market for Russian contemporary art was all very well in the editorial ARTinvestment.RU learned of the phone calls from reporters. Colleagues from the General press began to call to get a comment to a recent article by Forbes "Dear: whose paintings often buy at auction". Published in her October 28, 2016, the ranking of the most popular for the last five years of Russian artists were accompanied by interesting opinions. First — on what to buy contemporary Russian art at reasonable prices previously prevented, it turns out, competition from foreign... buyers. And the second — "domestic market is growing". And not just growing and "20-30 % annually". These abstracts, we requested comment on in the first place.
Indeed, these words, if they lost the context, sound strange. We do not agree with them. Both statements are contrary to what we observe. Perhaps now is the right time to refresh market data on the basis of information from our database of auction results and comment on the points.
Quote Forbes: "the Domestic market is growing by 20-30% a year" — says Ovcharenko.
Opinion AI: Your prayers.... The sales volume of the domestic auction market of painting and drawing in 2013 was approximately $21 000 000. In 2014, — is already $14 000 000 (minus 34 %). And in 2015 — approximately $4 600 000 (minus 68 %). Due to the fall of the ruble and reduce the activity of art-рынка three years sales, if you count in dollars, decreased by almost 80 %. Here you have "is growing". However, our forecast for 2016 is already relatively optimistic: the volume of sales of Russian art in the domestic market in 2016 will exceed $6 200 000, that is, the dollars will add 34 % to the level of 2015. It's even a surprise for us. Maybe it foresaw Vladimir Ovcharenko? Maybe meant the growth of the auction market specifically contemporary art in Russia? It is more difficult to isolate. But we know that the lion's share of this market provides just his own auction. He is a successful. The first turnover in Russia last year. But there, too, without miracles: in 2015, sales in dollar terms fell by almost 2 times compared to 2014. Just like everyone else. Yes, in 2016 projected to increase. But not 20-30 %.
Quote Forbes: "Demand for our artists now sporadic and very selective", — says the founder of the gallery "Triumph" Dmitry Hankin. The trend of the past two years — the emergence of a new generation of Russian collectors collect it modern art.
Opinion AI: If so, this trend is not the last two, and the last four hundred years — trend of the entire history of collecting. From the time of the Medici. Whatever happens, at any time there are new people who start collecting. And often choose to do exactly in tune with time and the most affordable cost contemporary art. There are a lot of the reasons. A new generation has begun collecting works of his contemporaries, even in the darkest years of Soviet power. When dangers on this path was far higher, less information and possibilities below. Today the situation is different. Good contemporary art today it is possible to collect with an annual budget of approximately 300 000 rubles (about 30 000 per month). ToAntiques with so much money can't be touched, plus deficit. So the trend is clear. Another thing is that in more favourable economic conditions, the trend could be more pronounced. The problem of collecting contemporary art — underdevelopment of the secondary market. You can buy and sell within a reasonable time is very difficult. However, this is a topic for another discussion.
Quote: the Decline of competition in the auction by foreign buyers gives you the chance to acquire the best work at a reasonable price.
Opinion AI: Also strange. It may give the impression that foreigners just rushed to a fight for our artists at auction, did not give Russian collectors raise their heads and drove the prices to outer space. Assume that there were such episodes, but in General the influence of foreign buyers looks exaggerated. Russian traditionally bought Russian. Foreigners could engage in bargaining over the names of the international context (for example, for the conceptualists Kabakov, and Bulatov or AES F). And in our opinion, they have no particular reason to buy other Russian artists in such amounts and at such prices, to be able to talk about their impact on the Russian art market.
Quote: According to collector and founder of the auction Vladey Vladimir Ovcharenko, the demand for contemporary artists now stable. "If we change the political atmosphere and the country becomes more open, the prices will immediately soar".
Opinion AI: It can be understood as a call to buy now, not to pull. Indeed, against the background of rising economic activity, the art usually increases in value. That would still only know when it "changed political atmosphere". And how. Many why-то decided that she could change it for the better and that will not be worse. But it is still a question. As we see, the potential confrontation and crackdown are far from exhausted.
Question by Forbes: Whose paintings often buy at auctions?
It is, in fact, the question posed in the title of the article Forbes. From the context of the publication it follows that it is only on the market of the sixties (informal post-war art) and aktualschikov (state of the art the art of the late XX — beginning of the XXI century) for the last five years. As you can tell by circumstantial evidence, considered probably not only the art (not only paintings) but everything, including graphics. The answer to the question is contained in the Forbes, which lists the following names: Ilya Kabakov, Erik Bulatov, Vitaly Komar and Alexander Melamid, , Pavel Pepperstein, Georgy Guryanov, and Novikov, Vladimir Dubosarsky and Alexander Vinogradov, Semyon Faibisovich, Valery Koshlyakov, Viktor Pivovarov.
In our own ranking, too, appear these names. But there are differences. According to our classification of turnover in U.S. dollars for the years 2012-2016 the first ten form the following artists: Ilya Kabakov ($5.8 million), Weisberg ($3.3 million), Erik Bulatov ($2.7 million), Komar and Melamid ($2.2 million), Oleg Tselkov ($1.8 million), Georgy Guryanov ($1.6 million), Dmitry Krasnopevtsev ($1.4 million), Oskar Rabin ($1.35 million), Semyon Faibisovich ($1.2 million) and Leonid Purygin ($1.4 million). To the top-10 turnover in 5 years, join Mikhail Shemyakin, Natalia Nesterov and Boris Sveshnikov. If to look not in money, but in lots, most often among the top-10 exhibited Rabin (sold 111 of 157), speakeasies (sold 64 of 110) Krasnopevtsev (58 of 105). However, we must note that in the structure of sales Kabakov, and Rabin a lot of graphics, including draw.
As you can see, the top ten (except , Guryanov) includes only the sixties. That was not "porridge", for contemporary artists would be better to build a separate rating. Then the top ten will certainly fall Koshliakov, Vinogradov Dubossarsky other first names and state of the art art.
Why have you chosen the piece in 5 years? Indicative of whether the overall market in its current form is the period 2012-2016?
For a healthy market that is not experiencing dramatic upheavals, five years — normal cut, that allows you to track trends. But for the Russian art market today period in the previous five years are no longer significant. Five years ago was 2012, when the market was recovering, purchasing power has grown and market participants have seen a gap in the clouds. But today it is more correct not to compare with 2012 and 2014-м, when the Crimea became part of Russia, including sanctions, there has been a collapse of the ruble and the dramatic slowdown in economic activity. We generally believe that we need to forget about what occurred before 2014, and recognize that we live in a new reality. It is necessary to take as a given that there is a new price level has increased the demands of customers, and expect that this situation will last not months, but for years to come — five or ten years. By the way, in 2014 ranking by turnover, too, has changed: it leads Weisberg and speakeasies in second place.
so, to sum up.
First, the rumors about the rapid growth of the market of contemporary art (the sixties aktualschikov) are greatly exaggerated. Of course, who-то may argue that this auctions not much is growing, but at the gallery market life may be, is in full swing. Okay, but show us at least one gallery, to deliver 30% growth per year. And for the market as a whole it would be a triumph of economic authorities.
Second: life goes on. On the General background better than the other feels, perhaps, the market of the sixties: the interest of buyers to unofficial art exactly is. Which is confirmed as bidding for the Auction AI, and at VLADEY.
Third: in the Forbes some authors, in our opinion, was included manually in order to dilute the sixties the aktualschikov. Although in General it provides a strong pool of authors, the prices of which sometimes are able to cross the mark of $200 000. It should be noted that all the artists in forbavset the ranked list are the top auction of VladimirOvcharenko, and some even are the artists of his gallery. However, this is not a reproach.
Fourth: when you get on the Internet again, who is-то wrong, a quick way to "compare notes" — to look at our the price index of Russian art ARTIMX-RUS and the index of consumer activity ARTIMXba-LOCAL (the proportion of sales in the domestic auction market). They can not answer you all the questions, but the average temperature in the hospital will show completely.
the Fifth — most importantly, arguments about the rise and fall of market is not an abstract philosophical discussion, not for argument's sake. They are supposed to serve as the answer to more important question: how do we act in the current situation? Buy or wait? It is possible to argue. But we already know how this question was answered by professional participants of the market — dealers. They-то just buy now. Including in the auctions (how we know). Moreover, in recent years dealers have intensified. Obviously, flair tells them that the peak of the fall passed. And it is expected that by 2016 the growth of the domestic auction market at 35 % in dollars and the increase in buying activity by 8% once again confirm this. In short, in this issue of AI with the mindset of Forbes agrees: time to buy now really good.
Konstantin Babulin, AI
Vladimir Bogdanov, AI
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