Russian auction in London. Forecast for June 2017
ARTinvestment.RU   18 мая 2017

You can, of course, every year, to regret the next lower directory level in London, but at the same time realizing that it is still the best there is on the level

so far, no single auction in Russia, not even close to compete on quality selections with key organizers of the "Russian auction".

Which reflects the forecast of AI, in addition to gambling and desire to guess precisely? Among other things, forecast — is the position regarding the reasonableness of the prices. Of course, in situations where buyers grappled to death and drove the price above the ceiling, any forecast is doomed. But I think the times are not the same. The bout will be rare. As-то quite so ostentatiously overspend people will not. And diminished random people among the buyers. Now after a deal prices and keep in mind the theoretical value of such works in Moscow (and Moscow still cheaper). Yes, visitors of the Russian trade is morally ready to charge "for London": no problems with the export, exclusive, service, warranty, provenance for auctions. But they are willing to pay tens, not hundreds of percent as 10 years ago. I think that this time it is logical to expect the prices are about 25-50% higher than in Moscow — no more. And about those figures we kept in mind when forming a prognosis.

Please note that the estimate and the estimated price of this article, for convenience, transferred from pounds to dollars by multiplying by 1.29 at the current rate.

Now.

5 Jun 2017. Christie's. Russian Art

Chronologically the Russian week at this time opens Chrisitie's. The auction will meet buyers of huge (293 lots) mixed directory. From which again it follows, that DPI still all right, and on Russian painting on Chrisitie's again (if not completely) given up. Millionaire no, no masterpieces, good things — enough to swear, and some of the price tags is designed more for drunk collectors. That is the first impression. Nevertheless...

Opinion AI: This Grigorev — is the most expensive picturesque lot of Russian Christie's catalog — is relatively modest provisional estimate of $128 800-193 200. Portrait of a boy for a Commerce theme complex (unless the author is not Chaim Soutine). Besides, he is also small. And his trademark style of Gregory obviously sought to curb, that the portrait was similar to a real person, and not on its characteristic collective faces. In General, the forecast — will go at best at the start. But don't be surprised if you don't move at all.

Opinion AI: doubt that the picture will be sold. It's big and beautiful from afar. But-таки is applied work: here the focus is on the costume. In particular, the designated person only. Six million rubles for this figure seem completely unrealistic, even given the fact that Bakst — artist of the first row.

Opinion AI: don't ask me why, but Luba's finished graphics, even the size of a postcard could theoretically cost $100,000 and more. And here is such a case, when except for the size nothing to complain about. Traditional erotica, without any admixture of somovskaya specifics — such a figure will adorn any collection. But the price is still incomprehensible. Typing the air, forecast — $80 000.

Opinion AI: Forecast — more than $40 000. Maybe 45-50, but hardly more. Yes, this is a very typical work of the famous sixties, busy, valuable period. Perhaps the only drawback, you won't believe — is a story. For not fully understood reason, work with the churches much more difficult to find new owners. Buy them faster than graveyards, but more slowly than pictures with neutral subjects.

Opinion AI: But, on the contrary, good price — attractive even by Moscow standards. Estimate meter abstraction 1973 — $10 304-15 450. In Russia for Masterkova of this quality please about 1.5–2 times more. I would not say that the Amazon of the avant-garde is all, but real prices are. I think in this case will be fought with at least a twofold excess of the upper estimate. My prediction — $35 000.

6 Jun 2017. Sotheby's. Russian Pictures

auction house Sotheby's will be released to buyers second. But he has the biggest and the best directory of Russian painting and graphics among all auctions — 202 of the lot. When it is evident that in the June Sotheby's catalog will be 7 (seven!) works of Ivan Aivazovsky. From wanting to sell the painting of our seascape is all. And rates — crisis. About the millions, feels no one else does not even stutter. Starts from $25 000 to $150 000. Moreover, 150 thousand — is a lower estimate on a rather spectacular paintings by Aivazovsky in a decent width of 80 cm Before the crisis, such cost about $750 000–$800 000. Now — is 5 times lower. However, people put up trying to sell — and rightly so. Act, despite the strange tips about what to sell now, unprofitable "to keep prices" it's better to wait for "better times". For anyone to keep-то? For those who have all their problems solved? And who knows, we wait for better times or, on the contrary, the new crisis? Okay, that's enough to cheat yourself. Actually those who buys, is also doing the right thing: at that price is quite possible.

notes that, with rare exception, the estimate at Sotheby's more realistic than all the other participants of the "Russian week". Yes, after a fatty 2000-х unpleasant so significantly to fall back and explained to those who invested or collected at "those" prices. But what can you do, it's easier once to recognize the new market reality and to move forward than helplessly cling to the past.

Opinion AI: Levitan — top-лот current Sotheby's. The picture is large, well documented history (including the exhibition catalog, the Wanderers), beautiful. But not outstanding. I think that this is the rare case when Sotheby's made a mistake with the estimate. Yes, we remember that the works of Levitan and obey millionth strap. But all this happened long before the second crisis, in 2005-2010, Now sell for the money is the work of Russian artist — need it like-то phenomenal to try. And I'm afraid that's not the case. I think that the decoration of the directory will either be sold much below the estimate, or not sold. Most likely the latter. By the way, Sotheby's will be another Levitan — "Overgrown pond" in 1888. It is 4 times less (66 across), but of better mood, with a characteristic levitanovskoy sadness. The lower estimate from "Overgrown pond" — $559 000. It is better but also very expensive, of course.

Opinion AI: Even on a photo it is felt that the most beautiful thing. In the limit of large size, even a little-чуть, and would be in the negative. Very unusual palette, with blue, unusual for a forest landscape composition, high detail — with such work decades you can live soul to soul, will not bother. One hundred thousand dollars (the lower estimate) for kryzhitskogo — is a lot of money. But in this case that-то tells us that the estimate will be exceeded one and a half times the price will go to $170 000. In General, the auction record for kryzhitskogo — $465 000. Only it was in a past life, in 2009.

Opinion AI: This is the most beautiful and the most expensive Aivazovsky current Sotheby's. Five-семь years ago it would cost 4-5 times more than today's lower estimate. Grief for those who bought at the peak, but a good opportunity for new collectors. We believe that at today's prices to buy Aivazovsky already profitable. But not last and not recklessly.

Back to specific things. Size — optimal. Plot — without unnecessary tragedy. Yes, the sailboat goes to the bottom, but the boat people have almost reached the shore. Branded transparent wave in the moonlight — is beyond praise. In General, the film has everything what we love Aivazovsky. Think she will go with a small excess of estimate in the region of the $250 000-300 000.

Opinion AI: New homes in Moscow again a relevant topic, although Rabin wrote them in 1967, 50 years ago. The work belongs to the most valuable period of creativity that was performed prior to emigration. Given the high quality and meter size, the lower estimate at Sotheby's is quite modest. I think that for such a Rabin buyers will to fight and the price will exceed the estimate for the auction.However within reason. Probably will go up to $35 000. Due to the effect of Sotheby's. And in Moscow the price of the Rabin now just about $25 000.

Opinion AI: Early 1958, Zvereva, and even a large (nearly 60 cm in height) to buy today in Moscow not so-то just. Already a rarity. But rating declared by the auction — on the limit. According to our market, such a sheet should cost around $3,000 to 4,000. Well, let's see. Possible and to a minimum of $5,000 (estimate Sotheby's) in this time comes.

Opinion AI: Sorry, the size is pumped up. But even 60-сантиметровый still life drawings of this period in London can now cost $50 000-60 000. And before the crisis could cost twice that. But what you really remember. I think the current assessment Sotheby's are quite adequate, and assume that the price will be closer to $50 000. Well, passing in Moscow exhibition Morandi only add fuel to the fire. Weisberg with Morandi is often compared. So called "Russian Morandi". For the sake of curiosity: the Italian still life Morandi comparable size would cost around one million dollars.

Opinion AI: a Bright and colorful painting, close to what is called the Vladimir school, — glance not to interrupt. And mood and energy, and by London standards, inexpensive. In Moscow we recently sold AI Auction Matuszewski slightly smaller and not so bright for $1 500. I think that this would cost us at least $2 500-3 000. So in London you can wait at least a start. And forecast AI — $4 000. Sorry, Matuszewski, despite the high quality, the fight is not going away. However, the mere fact that the artist has regularly exhibited at Sotheby's, strengthens its market position and increase the investment potential.

Opinion AI: do not be misled by the fact that the graphics of Boris Kustodiev often exhibited even on the Russian auctions at prices of $3 000-4 000. Standing as-нибудь spectacular finished drawings, not pencil sketches, are rare. And when we meet, we collectors can drive the prices above the ceiling. So already in 2015, when similar class of watercolor "merchant's wife" at Sotheby's exceeded the sky-high price of $188 000. That is absolutely inadequate, especially now. And especially for Moscow. What I? For example, the fact that the current sketch "Dasha, the merchant's wife" is much better than the over 188 thousand. And besides, he comes from the collection of Fedor Chaliapin. In fact, this work — initially the sketch of a costume of a merchant's wife Dasha to Opera by Alexander Serov "fiend force",which in 1920 as a Director staged Fyodor Chaliapin in the former Mariinsky. Sketch-то he sketch. But specifically in this figure Kustodiev happened everything: the dress, the face and posture, and entourage. At Sotheby's is, of course, also realise a small watercolor evaluated from the soul — is very expensive. Will give you start? Probably. For Chaliapin. However too much gambling and bargaining, I do not expect.

Opinion AI: In the last auction of Russian graphics of Russian avant-garde broke with serious exceeding the estimate was contrary to predictions. That is much more expensive than predicted experienced collectors. How will this time — to assume difficult, hence the large scatter in the pre-auction estimates. Figure Lyubov Popova, as figure Nadezhda Udaltsova, passed through Leonard Hutton Galleries, what is good: they have a good reputation. If not declared estimate, I would guess that the price for Popov will be $30 000, and for Udaltsov — $20 000. Which is also expensive. But given the fact that the lower estimate Popova $37 250, — venture. Forecast — $42 000. As for Udaltsov — $20 000. By the way, in thongs graphics Russian avant-garde at Sotheby's there are still a vivid picture of Nikolai Suetin. It is also worth a look.

7 Jun 2017. Bonhams. The English Sale

the feelings, this time, Bonhams is not too far behind Christie's. Well, maybe a little-чуть. This time they catches the eye of a string of works by Dmitry stelletsky: Martha-Посадницы to large hunting scenes. There is a bit of the sixties (at Bonhams they can often be bought cheaper than the competition). Large selection of theatrical sketches. And among the most expensive — scenic classics of the XIX century.

Opinion AI: the Price of Russian painter Andrey Ryabushkin is very volatile. Assign estimate — is not a trivial task. Bonhams is trying to solve by its selection. Six months ago, this painting "village street" put up with a lower estimate of under $40 000. And it's clear that none of it came. This time the organizers have radically changed tactics: lower estimate is now about $20 000. Much better. That will only help? Yes, the Wanderers. Yes, meter work. Yes, strong genre. But twenty thousand — is twenty thousand. That is, the adjacent scales — good Rabin or Krasnopevtsev. Which not everyone likes, but everyone knows. Forecast for Ryabushkin — buy at best at the start, for $18,000. But rather, again not sold.

Opinion AI: Stellarcon remember the rule: his work necessarily must look alive. Directories can not be trusted. Often his paintings can in reality be noticeably darker than in the photo. "The hunt" from the entire string looks probably the most advantageous. Unmistakable Byzantine style stelletsky. Thinglarge, but not excessively. One and a half meters in width. Judging by the description, this temperature was exhibited on 9-й exhibition of the Union of Russian artists. Auction — $129 000-154 800 — normal. Alive if the thing is not dark, you can go for the upper limit evaluation, for $160,000. In the old days you could count on twice that amount. In General, stelletsky auction record for a work is $605 000. So much was given for meter canvas at Sotheby's in 2015.

Opinion AI: Air graphics, eye pleasing. Sorry too highly appreciated. The lower estimate in terms of our — 500 000. Unlikely. If half, maybe. Though I was with the Russian standards of fit, and in London and it has happened.

see the situation as a whole. It is clear that, like last time, the best torguetsya Sotheby's. The percentage of exits will be all over-менее normal. Why? In-первых in Russia during the crisis the rich get richer. In-вторых, strengthened the ruble improves mood and opportunities. Well,-третьих, again, the best collection of Russian art outside London, anywhere in the world is not found. We will continue to monitor, and at the end of the Russian week, as always, we will verify the prediction results.

And remains only to wish the organizers and buyers at the June auction good luck. Tailwind!



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