Suppose West decided to tangible economic pressure and began to understand that this is a long time. What can happen?

forecast possible changes in Russian art market under the influence of external pressure so far, fortunately , is in idle speculation. The first wave of political sanctions created a sensation , but tangible damage potential buyers did not cause . What we've seen? " MasterCard " and " Visa " for a couple of days to several banks turned down , but quickly turned back. Ruble, as we recall, fell before the sudden union with the Crimea. Visa sanctions against members of the elite and the freezing of foreign accounts were predictable , and there, too, people had to quickly navigate . You can still remember the suspension of participation in the "Eight" , downgrade , different complications through diplomacy and other techniques in the style of " Englishwoman shits ", which are not felt immediately purse .

SITNIKOV VY Moonlight . 1960 70th Oil on cardboard. 20 × 24,5 Auction AI № 22 Result 375 000

Krasnopevtsev DM Part skull Late 1950 oil on cardboard. 24,5 × 34,5 Auction AI № 21 Result 425 000

Perhaps those all and end. Or maybe not: go further by clicking on the levers of economic pressure . There is an infinite number of options open . Already talking about industry sanctions. What will push harder ? Push sharply or gradually ? From this, too, depends on many things . Obviously, the most likely sore point will be selected energy . That is, in the future we can expect Western effort to reduce purchases of Russian resources and find ways to reduce the prices of the main export products ( forcing the theme of shale oil and gas , LNG trade expansion , special arrangements with the Middle East exporters , etc.). Suppose West decided to tangible economic pressure and began to understand that this is a long time. What can happen ?

1. Officials and business for some time will be conditionally locked in the country - both physically and with their thoughts . Resources will be concentrated in our jurisdiction , and a significant portion of consumer spending will also be produced domestically . So , instead of a villa in St Tropez - the resorts of Krasnodar Territory. Instead Mercedes - Toyota local assembly . And instead of Sotheby's - Moscow auctions : one will be the same people get bored ! That is theoretically "nationalization elites" can increase the demand for Russian art in the country - and not only by previous buyers who will now pay for art in Moscow and St. Petersburg , but also due to the fact that more and more rich people will have to spend money in Russia and one of them will start to buy art . Yes , we remember that once a man is rich , it does not mean that he is inclined to buy art ( among wealthy collectors less than 2%) . But some correlation between the number of rich people and art buyers still exists .

2 . Sharp rise in the dollar exchange rate and the gradual promotion flywheel inflation in response to a sharp drop in oil prices . We also have all passed - you can easily recall the $ 12 per barrel in 1998. Quickly replaced by tags great unnerved people , but business was much faster than it is now . Do decision makers did not have time to lose , because tomorrow it will be more expensive . Deals were made quickly , coordination did not last for months ( as is happening now ) , the invoices were valid for three days and paid the envy quickly. Ie trade goes rather more briskly than before, and the speed of reaching a compromise between buyers and sellers increase .

3 . A few months after sanctions art market goes into dollars , the transaction will be on course. Why it will not happen immediately ? Many customers have become accustomed to think in rubles and follow outpacing the dollar will not be ready . That is the first time prices in dollars will grow much more slowly than the dollar . Yes , money is worthless , but also earned under these conditions is much more difficult .

4 . Art prices if economic problems take a long time is likely to fall significantly - for example, 20-30%in dollars. And life will go on the new price levels. This has already happened in 2009-2010 - is nothing new . It will also because ...

5 . ... Another group of collectors will move abroad , to " winter quarters ." Of course , no good . But the drama of the consequences of this trend is not so clear . To begin with, it's already so pretty much happened. This exodus took place two or three years ago , so the market has managed to play the news. In addition, over the last couple years , a new generation of people buying art . Sometimes very young . We have seen it all now and in its auctions AI. Yes , often it is the first low-cost purchases , but the process is . Collecting - it's a passion , and people do not completely abandon purchases decreasing their income. How not to quit smoking because of the increase in tobacco prices .

6. Increase proposal on the art market. Why ? Will enter the market works , bought expensive before the crisis. Their long held not to sell cheaper. But once the crisis for a long time , it becomes clear that we must live in the new realities and agree to reasonable adjustments reserve prices . Hence - we are waiting for the appearance of paintings at discount prices . Incidentally, this downward movement has already begun , we feel it too . A sanction that will only help . And as a consequence , those who are financially now feels good, it will use and buy. Actually, already do so. Mantra "buy in crisis" continues to work .

remains to note once again that the above effects can occur only as a result really strong sanctions. If all goes as it is now , we hardly ever feel significant changes . Ruble will play back a little ( he had grown ) , everything will gradually calm down , and then reconciled . So until next time .

Goncharova NS A bouquet of flowers on a dark background . 1930 50th masonite oil. 46 × 38,4 Auction AI № 13 Result: 1.2 million rubles

KABAKOV II They look down . Plateau . 1999 Porcelain decal . 23,2 × 33,4 × 0,8 Auction AI № 10 Result 80 000

Generally years of observation have taught us that a) the economic forecasts come true , and b) not a single economy ... For the art market is not as important figures of inflows and outflows , how much change attitudes and expectations of customers. And about them, we can tell you the results of communication with customers auction AI. That's what we see. Small and medium businesses looking to the future moderately optimistic , and his propensity to buy external factors hardly affected . People associated with the state corporations and big business , set up a much more pessimistic - though the margin of safety for their resistance to the crisis , of course, more. For in much wisdom is much grief ? But this in words . And in fact, they too continue to buy if prices are good .

said falling always hurts . But it's probably from some high featherbeds . And when the market is in its sixth year living in a crisis , the sanctions are perceived as just another in a series of similar calls. At adequate prices demand situation is always there , and our own auction experience it confirms once again (see painting " On the current market situation of painting and graphics »).

Vladimir Bogdanov , AI
Babulin Constantine , AI