Vladimir Makovsky The collapse of the bank. 1881
Oil on canvas. 68,2 x 104,2
The State Russian Museum
Source: wikipaintings.org

Well it's almost folk sign: if people suddenly began to gulp article economists argue about brain drain and capital, and the kitchens are seriously discussing the direction in which our rolls "troika" that something is brewing.

oil to the fire poured unhealthy expectations of professionals and Economic Development Bank not usually prone to upset the rulers bad news. And news of the rainbow will not name them: According to the Central Bank, the net outflow of capital from the private sector in the I quarter of 2013 amounted to 25.8 billion dollars. At first, the forecasts were optimistic - only minus 10 billion for the entire 2013. But now they have obviously reviewed. For comparison, in 2012 the country has flowed 54.1 billion. And this year is likely to be less. Following the Federal Customs Service reported a slowdown in imports, and a number of positions - for its reduction . For example, car imports fell by 9%- a sure sign that people are cutting costs and preparing for difficult times. And then there was another attack - a slowdown in industrial production. In 2013, while waiting, plus 2%, but there is a risk of zero growth. In addition, pictures of Economic Development has lowered the forecast for GDP growth in the already not the most ambitious 3.6%to 2.4%. Businesses are cutting investment, and economists talking about a recession - a recession. And not in the distant future, and this fall.

Most surprisingly, all this is happening is not typical for a recession background. Oil prices are above $ 100, it is quite high. According to the formal criteria of ease of doing business, and we are making progress at all. Thus, the rated Doing Business-2013, Russia has officially risen from 120th to 112th place, and with the conducted since the reforms - and do is on the theoretical 44th. Inflation - yes, a tall, 6.6%in 2012, but also quite controlled. Another thing is that in the Danish kingdom is not all right to the protection of property, the courts and the political "morals" that determine the quality of the investment climate. The investment program is compressed in fact not so much because of inflation, but from uncertainty. Money does not hide from the rate of GDP, and because of concerns that the business may select. And then there's Cyprus podsuropil: unscrupulous island pretended not to know that it was ruled a large part of the key enterprises of Russia.

Figure 1. In the first quarter of 2013, the global auction of Russian art index shows a decline. A similar "shape" the graph showed in October 2008, in the debut of the first crisis. But this time, things are not so


Figure 2. The index of consumer activity in the Russian segment of the art world is gradually reduced from October 2010 to the present time. From April to October 2012 was a leap up, after which the decline continued. However, the decline in consumer activity is not sharp. That is, consumer expectations are not as pessimistic as before the crisis in 2008


Figure 3. Since the beginning of 2012 buying activity in the auction segment of the art world has grown by about 7%, and in the segment of Russian art - has declined by about 5%

However, from time to more mothers to go to the realities of our small market Russian paintings and drawings: the global and national segments. What was going on here lately? Before we talk about the consequences of a new recession, you need to honestly admit that from the perspective of the market of paintings and drawings, and we have the first crisis of 2008, has not been fully recovered. More precisely, the level of the price index of Russian art ARTIMX-RUS (roughly speaking, the level of auction prices in the world) we have for some time even exceeded the pre-crisis level. Yes, in the III - IV quarters of 2012, the average price of Russian art were higher than before the crisis. And with the new year, the market once again slipped to the values ​​in November 2008 (Figure 1).

And this is understandable: the buying activity in the segment of Russian art - a key indicator of health of the market - the beginning and continues to fall just since mid-2010 (Chart 2). She is now at about 2002, at around 64%(in the midst of the crisis was worse: the index ARTIMXba at the end of 2009 and fell by 57%). That is all happening as a textbook: after six months or a year from the beginning of reduction in consumer activity and prices begin to decline. It's all about the auction segment of the world - global statistics on Russian art.

If you talk about the national segment, the newly crafted ARTinvestment.RU Statistics Moscow auction of paintings and drawings from the beginning of the year. Percentage of sales to them was 47.8%. But if we exclude one unsuccessful auction, which spoils the great big picture, then adjust the percentage of care will be 53.05%. And this is a very good growth, considering that last year, the percentage of care remained at the level of about 35-40%.

main question revolves in your head and not looks like if the present the situation in the pre-crisis model 2008? It seems not. More precisely, declining in the first quarter of 2013, the price index of the segment of Russian art ARTIMX-RUS showed a similar figure in the chart in October 2008. But on that basis alone it is impossible to draw far-reaching conclusions. Nature of lower prices can be anything. But the index of consumer activity in the Russian segment of the art world is gradually reduced as much since October 2010 and the present. This is bad. However, the decline in consumer activity is not as sharp as before the crisis in 2008. That's good, because that means that the current consumer expectations remain subdued, but not pessimistic.

To order would be good to look around and compare with what is going on in the art world. In major countries - sellers of art (UK, USA, France, China), too, because things are not sugar. And there, too, observers say that a slowdown in economic growth, a recession. And how are things going with the art world? As well as or better than our?

And then waits for an unpleasant surprise. If the movement of the index of prices on the Russian segment of the arts in general coincides with the world, the trend of buying activity sharply diverge. Namely, according to the art world since the beginning of 2012 started up in buying activity growth and has now reached almost record levels, and in the segment of Russian art from that moment began a gradual decline in the share of purchased lots. Not collapse, but nonetheless decline versus growth. Can not accidentally depressed foreigners called "Russian disease»?

True divergence of trends, which is so impressive looks in Figure 3, the Numbers looks a lot less intimidating. According to world art activity increased by 7%, and in the segment of Russian - fell by 5%. Not fatal.

total. In light of the possible onset of the recession any new catastrophic consequences for the art market, we do not expect. Tactically, at least, participants will be neither cold nor hot. Why?

First, one negative, which is reflected in the official statistics, our art market has long been met. Adapted to it and lived their lives. Unexpected blow was perhaps that Cyprus, and everything else is already there. "Brain Collectors" - is the theme of two years ago. Will there be a new wave of emigration in connection with the course on the "nationalization of the elites" - not sure. Those who wanted clenched his "investment program" for several years. As, however, and contrary illusions about the fact that the money suddenly arrive back from the dangerous offshore, too, has no special powers.

Secondly, the recession - it's mostly involuntary punishment for "working people", that is, for small and medium businesses. Buyers of art, collectors and investors typically belong to a different audience. They are owners of states. A recession - there is no default. It can slightly spoil them up, but it is certainly not a reason to completely abandon the purchase.

Third, our art market has proved its ability to live separate lives, not strongly correlated with the external economy. We have repeatedly observed the behavior of market participants, which defied logical explanation. Collectors can completely irrational then make a "feast in time of plague" that, on the contrary, show abnormal apathy on the background of generally good conditions.

Another thing that is theoretically possible, and various bad scripts. For example, if the pressure of social obligations, against the background of falling revenues, the state will begin to tighten the nuts to raise taxes and in every way a "nightmare" business. The script, frankly, quite unlikely that runs counter to today's trunk of ideas to improve the investment climate. If so look at what can happen anything: political "landing", the fall in oil prices, offensive seizures of property, so who knows what. But it already carries our "peaceful" recession in the category frankly crisis developments which we consider God forbid, and do not have to.

And while opinion is: even if the fall will be a recession, a particularly dramatic impact on the art market can be expected. Good it will bring nothing but noticeable degradation do not need to wait.

We'll tell you more: there is a sense that we are now witnessing is just another "local" bottom, both in activity as and prices. And it is during such periods of negative smart people make the most advantageous purchase. Another confirmation of these words is situation at last April's Antique Salon : gallery owners are not familiar with pleasure reported that they were able to make a bargain for yourself. And so these people will not give up in the nose.

Vladimir Bogdanov, Konstantin Babulin, AI