As in the theory of earned and lost those customers who invested in risk contemporary art 14 years ago?

In the old ideological dispute between the judges of antiques and modern art lovers, there are two extreme points of view. "Antikvarschikov" reproach: you have the market is full of fakes, you can run and be left with nothing. And they strike back: they say, all your modern art in an investment sense - one hundred percent risk. Almost casino. In the sense that many of the once popular current artists do not remain in the history of art, while they wash away, and invested in their tens of thousands of dollars are converted into money thrown away. If the listener reacts with disbelief, the Conservatives lead the decisive argument: look who was sold at auction of contemporary art 20 years ago, and guess where now all these artists ... With a hint that many of the most successful at the time of contemporary artists have been forgotten, and they work great to have lost in price.

Everything in life happens. But why not check out? Therefore, our "test purchases" in 1998 went on an ordinary auction Christie's Contemporary Art - to see whose belongings were sold at the auction of those who disappeared from the authors, and who, on the contrary, firmly entrenched in the rankings. And of course, I wonder how much of the theory of earned and lost those customers who invested in tangible risk in contemporary art 14 years ago.

Why selected control purchase these vehicles? 1998 - because that is the farthest year, which can be found on auction sites. A Christie's - because the new site Sotheby's is now the devil himself would break a leg. So take my word for that auction are chosen completely at random. If the task was within the jurisdiction of contemporary art, it is not difficult to be found trading with the Basques: those of his belongings, which in 1998 were worth 50-100 thousand, in our time are sold for 3-5 million. And if not with the Basques, the Peter Doig. But this is not our method.

So here's the first got : London, King Street, 8-9 October 1998. Rain, wind chill, 11 degrees outside. No boom. Sold 78 lots, a little more than half.

Sort by descending price. What's that? The most expensive item of the day cost the buyer thousands of pounds to 617.5, slightly more than $ 1 million. And just luck. Lot with lucky number 12 - "Candle" by Gerhard Richter - is well known to readers artinvestment.ru . In 2011, the "sister" of the "Spark" was sold for 10.46 million pounds (more than 16 million dollars). And it was the work of this series, Richter entered the top five living artists.

Well, we assume that virtually has "strayed." Luck? Partly. The buyer, of course, knew what he was doing. German sixties Richter in 1998 was already a classic, although such a development could not foresee one. And to cheer up the most conservative investors will quote a fragment of our rating «Top five living artists" : «Total Richter painted a still life with candles 27. When in the early 1980s, they were first exhibited in the gallery of Max Hetslera in Stuttgart, none of the papers did not buy, even though they cost just at 15,000 DM (5800 dollars). Then the theme of art has been called an old-fashioned; today, "Candles" believe the works of all time. " It turns out that the paintings of contemporary artist, to whom in the 1980s, buyers twisted noses, in our days went up in 2841 again.

Gerhard Richter Candle. 1982 Oil on canvas.: 80 x 100 Estimate: 450-650 thousand pounds Results: 617 5000 pounds Rating: $ 16 million Christie's.

Gerhard Richter Candle. 1982 Oil on canvas. 83 x 62,2. Estimate: 6-9 million pounds Result: 10.46 million pounds Christie's. 10/14/2011. Lot number 10

Okay, now the Richter can be attributed to the extremely good luck. Let's see who's in second place for the price. Nearly three-meter canvas by Anselm Kiefer's "Studio Artist" in 1983. Sold for 243,000 pounds (414,000 dollars in the money). What he can now cost as much as you think? I tell you. In May last year, a similar pattern of almost three-meter "Dedication unknown artist," also in 1983, was sold at Christie's for $ 3.1 million plus the auction house commission. That is, since the auction price of the work of this artist has grown by almost 9 times.

Anselm Kiefer studio artist. 1983 Oil on canvas, mixed media. 280 x 280 Estimate: 250-350 thousand pounds Result: 243.5 thousand pounds Rating: 3 million dollars Christie's.

Anselm Kiefer Dedication unknown artist. 1983 on canvas, mixed media. 189,9 x 260,4 Estimate: 2-3 million dollars Result: 3.55 million Christie's. 11/05/2011. Lot number 18

continue the conversation. Next on the list again, Richter, the work of "The Red Act" for 232.5 thousand pounds (396,000 dollars). Today, the stóit, probably around 2 million.

Gerhard Richter Red act Oil on canvas. 60 x 50,4 Estimate: 90-120 thousand pounds The result: thousands of pounds 232.5 Rating: 2 million dollars Christie's.

But then - interesting. Joint canvas by Andy Warhol and Jean-Michel Basquiat "Tricycle" - in 1985, the amount of under three meters. sold within the estimate for 100.5 thousand pounds (171,000 dollars). Today, a comparable class of work are 7.2 million dollars. Over seven million working together Basquiat and Warhol bought last year at Phillips de Pury, but there was something particularly strong, but weaker, "Tricycle" can be a conservative estimate, say, three million dollars. And even so the price has increased 17 times.

ANDY WARHOL And Jean-Michel Basquiat Tricycle. 1985 Silkscreen on canvas. 203,2 x 267,3 Estimate: 90-120 thousand pounds Result: 100.5 thousand pounds Rating: 3 million dollars Christie's.

tablecloth with paintings of Sigmar Polke, then sold for 100, five thousand pounds (171,000 dollars), is now worth more than 700 thousand dollars: for the money was sold last year, a very similar thing on Sotheby's. But this growth against the previous examples can be considered almost a failure of the investor. Big deal, just something 7 times in 14 years.

Sigmar Polke Untitled. In 1993 fabric (cloth), mixed media. 126 x 150,5 Estimate: 90-120 thousand pounds The result: 100.5 thousand pounds Rating: 700 thousand dollars Christie's.

But huge Lightboxes (light boxes with photo) Jeff Wall, as it is now clear, did not help the new owner a fortune. Now they are sold in the range of 90-300 thousand dollars. And those who bought them 14 years ago for 171,000, at best, remained with his.

Jeff Wall Insomnia. 1994 Sibahrom on the light box. 172,7 x 214 Estimate: 65-85 thousand pounds Result: 100.5 thousand pounds Rating: 171 thousand dollars Christie's.

But things are Georg Baselitz has since risen considerably in 5-10 time: an inverted portrait, which cost the buyer time to 89,000 pounds (152,000 dollars), today could have been sold in the range of 1.2-2 million. For our "mathematics" take a minimum estimate.

Georg Baselitz head. Ralph W. Penck. 1969 Oil on canvas. 162,5 x 130 Estimate: 90-120 thousand pounds Result: 89,5 thousand pounds Rating: 1.2 million Christie's.

not particularly favorable target for investment would have been the work of Hirst. Its a great spot pattern (by the way, a relatively rare, black and white), then was bought for 124,000 dollars, and now it could cost 500 thousand dollars at best. And then the 300. When adjusted for inflation - not God knows what kind of investment. Although money is thrown away, honestly, did not call. Neighboring work, two-meter diameter "happy picture" Hirst, sold at the auction for 60.9 thousand pounds, today is 2.5-3 times more expensive. In terms of 14 years also not very convincing for the investor.

Damien Hirst Cytotec. 1995 Canvas, alkyd enamel. 213,3 x 254 Estimate: 40-60 thousand pounds The result: 73,000 pounds Rating: 300 thousand dollars Christie's.

to two-meter composite object very early in the life of the departed German abstractionist Blinky Palermo (1943-1977) are now also possible to pick up the analogy. At the time, for his work from the tissue and "improvised" a tree have paid 62,000 pounds (105,000 dollars), and the last two years the objects of the same size, made of different fabrics, the first-class auction selling in a price range 0.8-2 million dollars. That is, we can assume that the order price has since risen.

Blinky Palermo Anyone who speaks softly. № 2 I. fabric stretched over wood. 56,2 x 110 x 10,2 II. fabric. 78,7 x 213,5 Estimate: 70-90 thousand pounds The result: 62,000 pounds Rating: 1 million dollars Christie's.

Lot 63. Very good giant-sized (2.4 meters wide) canvas Keith Harring "Murder" (with a skull - a class!) got some kind of lucky for 56,000 pounds (96,000 dollars). kindly thing, requiring a museum space, stóit now in the range of 700-900 thousand dollars.

KIT Haring Murder. 1988 on canvas, mixed media. 183,4 x 244,6 Estimate: 50-70 thousand pounds Result: 56,5 thousand pounds Rating: 700 thousand dollars Christie's.

about the same objects are worth today, Anish Kapoor - one of the the major British artists. And 14 years ago these things bought for 47,000 pounds (81,000 dollars). Rising again to order.

Anish Kapoor Mother of the boat. 1989 Fiberglass, blue pigment. 223,5 x 108 x 104 Estimate: 40-60 thousand pounds Result: 47,7 thousand pounds Rating: 700 thousand dollars Christie's.

-object sculpture Mario Merz in 1966, sold at a Day 45.5 thousand pounds (77,000 dollars), today would have cost 3 times more expensive. Find it comparable to a couple of our days is difficult. It's not a very active market. But, according to statistics artprice.com, suspended $ 100 invested in the of Merz in 1998, to October 2011 turned into $ 375.

Mario Merz Lance Wood, acrylic tube. 282 x 70 x 35,5 Estimate: 40-60 thousand pounds Result: 45.5 thousand pounds Rating: 230 thousand dollars Christie's.

We successively passed the 13 most expensive lots purchased at the a rainy autumn day. Not taking away some very special things successful. No manipulation. Without expectation of a particular impression. But then, believe me, it was not worse. Were still working, and Kiefer and Richter, and Miguel Barcelo, and "Frozen Head" by Mark Quinn, and the subject of Donald Judd. All these things were sold at prices cheaper than 45,000 pounds. In the sculptures of Stephen Balkenhola then gave 12-15 thousand pounds. A canvas Jorg Immendorff cost less than 12,000 pounds. Funny figures for the day. Was evident that a large canvas of Sarah Morris at that time belonged to supercheap segment - someone bought it, "to surrender" of 3.4 thousand pounds (about 5000 dollars). Now it would be worth much more expensive.

I estimate that three million dollars invested in the 13 most expensive works of the auction in 1998, virtually turned to our time in 29.3 million dollars . Almost ten-fold increase. Even putting aside the exceptional case of "Candle" by Gerhard Richter, the two-million art investment we would have 13.5 million of revenue. In any case, the hypothesis about the waste of money does not find confirmation.

When asked whether it was possible to lose money on the auction, the answer is: it is possible. Of the following - investment in specific works by Damien Hirst, Jeff Wall and Mario Merz raise some concerns, even when they are rated "plus". After all, we must bear in mind that 14 years ago, the dollar was much fulfilling. One thousand dollars in 1998 - is 1400 dollars in terms of current money. Plus, these funds could be put on deposit, or alternatively investing (real estate, stocks) to kill the profitability of investments in art. But we must recognize that the vast majority of the time purchased paintings and installations by contemporary artists has not exactly turned into nothing. The only difference is that some have grown in value by 2-3 times, and others - on the order of magnitude or more.

remained sick the last question - "the forgotten names of" risk so that the career of the artist is on the decline, he drops out of art history and made advances to no longer justified. Now, perhaps, already quite difficult to fall out. Anyway, the question of roles in the history of art criticism more. But certainly at the auction were the authors, who after Christie's at auction appeared rarely, only a few times in 14 years.