In spite of the forthcoming Russian sales auction week, buying activity of  collectors of Russian art continues to fall. This can be proved by the dynamic of ARTIMXba indices, designed by the web-site ARTinvestment.RU (online portal specializing in art investment matters). Taken as a whole, buying activity at the international art market didn’t change during past year, but it dropped notably in the Russian art segment.

ARTIMXba (for international art) and ARTIMXba-RUS (for Russian art) buying activity indices measure the average percentage of sold lots at international and Russian auctions. In the best years more than 73 % of Russian lots were sold. But at the culmination of the crisis in October 2009 the number of lots sold in the Russian art segment fell to the record minimum of 57 %.

Buying activity is visibly higher now. Nevertheless, the dynamic of the past 12 months doesn’t give a distinct cause for optimism to the Russian art-market analysts. While ARTIMXba global buying activity index showed a lateral movement along the usual 69 points level (average 69 % of sold lots), Russian ARTIMXba-RUS buying activity index soared from 70,5 to 65,5 points. In other words, Russian art sales declined by 5 % during this year.

Furthermore, as shown in the graph, buying activity in the Russian art segment was falling steadily almost through the whole year. In opinion of ARTinvestment.RU, this might testify that in the nearest half-year perspective prices in the Russian art segment of the auction market will drop again, as it was during the crisis. Though average prices in Russian segment are growing now.

Thus, a certain regularity can be traced: when auction prices grow and new records are set, but the quantity of deals simultaneously decreases — that’s not a good sign. This means that in a half-year perspective prices will also start to slump. And vice versa: when the auctions don’t boast of new records, but buyers become more active, we can look for prices skyrocketing in six months. The major problem encountered by analysts is that at the initial point of drawing the graph of buying activity it is impossible to predict whether we observe a consistent trend for growth or just a onetime break.

Both auction statistics and present state of the country’s gallery sector point to a relatively low level of buying activity. The recent XXXI Antique Salon in Moscow has seen a low number of visitors and, according to the participants, interest to the event among buyers hasn’t grown considerably. By the end of the year the market may presumably suffer from an additional negative political effect, arising from the forthcoming parliamentary and presidential elections, although current graphs at ARTInvestment.RU do not register it at this point. In other words, it is obviously early to assert that the market of Russian art has overcome the crisis, regardless of single records, established at Russian sales.

Players in the Russian art market are adapting to the new situation and learning to work against the background of the lingering crisis, reconsidering their strategies. It is evident that Russian auction houses have improved their catalogue standards. They are becoming more particular about the quality of lots and setting attractive reserve prices.

Meanwhile, galleries introduce new forms of trade increasingly using the Internet as a promising commercial instrument and provide a more efficient service to potential buyers. Changing needs of buyers are being satisfied with services, which are new to Russian market, including home delivery of artworks for their preview and following sale.

Vladimir Bogdanov, AI