Contemporary art market. It's time to move away from the crisis of consciousness
Last year many wondered how the prices have changed over the year to the actual art, especially Russian - in the sense of a strong fall? They asked if not exactly with malice (so what if it were so). Rather, to test the dogma that the crisis in the antique works kept stroke, and all of the latest (most advanced) is impaired.
spurred interest in the news flow from the western areas. Titles analytical publications are full of tactical "achievements": Hirst and Koons have lost 50 percent, The Draw graphics fell by a third, selling high-quality works of contemporary artists at auction from Christie's and Sotheby's fell 75 percent ... And so on. Read headlines - amazed. Fall? So it is well: buy at low prices. Why get upset? Then, on closer examination, one realizes that the numbers are evil. Yes, and post-crisis folk wisdom says: if the ocean something happened, and may happen to us. Therefore, try to figure out what is going on.
To begin with, that are simpler, that is, with the situation on the markets of the civilized and formed. The West. There murder will be hidden. Where the works of modern (contemporary) artists included in the active turnover of the auction, and where statistics are open sales can really be talking about a substantial decrease in the average auction prices for works by contemporary artists. For example, if you look at the price indexes artprice.com, then for the first six months of 2009 to decline relative to the "fat" in 2008 by the first names in contemporary art from a low of 15 to 50 percent. Throughout the contemporary art market analysts recorded fall by 75 percent, but the first names so much still does not subside. Thus, conditional $ 100 invested in the work of Damien Hirst in 1998, to January 2008, became in 1520 dollars. This was the peak. By March 2009, these 1520 dollars in 1213 turned into dollars, and by August the price index fell Hirst's right up to 1037 dollars. That is, for the formal "mathematics" 50 percent as mysteriously disappeared. But if we begin to deal with each sale separately, then confirmed by another axiom: subside things mediocre, but strong and prominent, even in the crisis of rising in price (see photo).
Contemporary artists and established contemporary, which is unlikely to release works on the market (such as Basquiat, who died in 1988), escaped the price turbulence. But the fall was recorded for them. So, $ 100 invested in the work of Jean-Michel Basquiat in 1998, turned to August 2009 at 780 dollars. Very well, if you do not know that the peak value was 938 dollars for it in early 2008. Roughly the same price correction (20-40 per cent) was recorded for the works of Richard Prince, Andreas Gursky, Takashi Murakami. Even more serious was the fall of the price index for the works of George Condo, Maurizio Cattelan.
As for the Russian market of modern art, the situation is fine differs from the west. And trace the findings of Western analysts, using their percentages fall to our market, not worth it. We indicators of growth or decline in prices can only be judged by peer review. Because not accumulated the minimum sufficient statistics of the auction. Technically some of the dramatic decline in prices did not happen - that there is no compelling evidence. But there are nuances that prevent an objective picture. Thus, in Russia's modern art, we can say there is no re-sale market: collectors and non-system customers make initial purchases for their collections in the galleries, but do not try to sell these works through a gallery or an auction to recover the money from the addition. In fact, till now there is an art, primitive accumulation of capital rather than its redistribution, or effective use. And where there is no active movement, and take downs nowhere. In September 2009, at the exhibition "Art Moscow» AI was interested in representatives of several leading Russian galleries volumes of repeat sales. Surprisingly, the gallery did not conceal that the cases when a person brings to the gallery bought before the actual work of the artist, are extremely rare. This is what happens when the work is fed up with the customer and the customer walked up the street. But this is not investment transactions, not fixation. Whim, caprice, but not an operation to benefit from the resale.
Nominal price growth for Russia's market also takes place. But what kind of growth we talking about? The usual situation in Russia - is when a person bought a new job in the gallery, hung on the wall and not trying to resell it, even after many years. Wisit itself - there are no requests. It is clear that during these years of gallery prices actually rise. So it should be: prices typically increase as the career development of the artist. But in terms of investment is a theoretical price increase. Check the size of this growth and its validity through the open sales almost impossible: not developed such a mechanism. To say that prices rose by 10 per cent - that means simply say.
In Russia, massive practice of converting previously purchased works of contemporary art in the money simply does not exist. On foreign auctions Russian "state of the art" is just starting to appear, the statistics accumulated little. A gallery prices going bit by bit. And generally gallery-price - Theme sly. There is a price which is gradually rising, but there are individual discounts. But how many take off during the crisis of the system to customers - no one will say.
Russian galleries to respond to the crisis. Thus, "Aidan Gallery" did not hide in the past year that has agreed with the artists and transferred to pre-crisis prices euros to dollars. That is to say that before the crisis was worth 5000 euros conventionally, it was worth 5000 dollars. Most of the other galleries continue to set prices mainly in Euro-currency, and negotiates discounts on an individual basis.
growth of the primary selling prices also happened and is happening. In the first place for the work of fashionable painters involved in an active exhibition process. Calculate them is not difficult. Suffice it to recall, whose names are often heard in connection with a large exhibition of large-scale representation of Russia at international expositions - the Moscow and the Venice Biennale, for example, or the most vocal art events like the Kandinsky Prize ( Koshlyakov , Belyaev-Gintovt , Shutov , Pepperstein and others). Also, do not forget that the orderly growth of the initial sales prices - is the foundation of the survival of galleries. If they cut prices, to adjust policy in response to the crisis, it will undermine the confidence of its customers systems that are "fat" years, bought the work at high prices. So, to remain in place, to be constantly running, even jogging.
Another question: how long the market will be depressed? It is clear that the crisis can make a bargain without bubbling prices, but for vendors and artists of the situation is very unhealthy. Still, the normal state of the market - this is when there is a gradual increase in prices amid growing volumes.
For gallerists positive signals just appeared. Not only that, of the TV called "refuse crisis of consciousness" (say, everything passed - time to move on). It also appeared Rosreestra statistics, recorded growth in sales of apartments in December 2009 to 70 per cent increase compared with November and 30 percent more in December 2008. Explanation - million. But among the key - actuation springs up demand. People are tired of waiting. With the end of the crisis, gallery owners are entitled to expect about the same reactions and on the art market (including modern). Recall that collectors for almost a year passed, tightening the belt. Many buyers system is unable to continue to hold the pause. People are so long denied themselves in the desire to buy art, that now is the energy required to break squall purchases (and not very discriminating).
That's it will take time buyer and the time the seller. I think that is the question the next two months. And we ARTinvestment.RU also preparing for the new conditions. Just published program of the February workshops for investors, collectors, art - dealers, the authors (the heirs of authors) and owners of works of art . The new season will be an introduction and overview topics, and practical - in the new round of "Where to invest?". Including theme will be continued investment in modern art. Here an interesting situation: in the budget up to 5000 euros is quite possible to find a decent proposal, and selecting for the purchase of up to 20 thousand euros, can already count on the real thing. It's time to be included in the work. A crisis consciousness its protective function is already exhausted.
Vladimir Bogdanov, ARTinvestment.RU, chief editor
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