Judge Artnet sure, yes. Artinfo doubts

Source: What will still be with the art market in terms of wholesale and universal crisis? If some time ago, experts shared cautious optimism, but now once again beginning to be heard alarm bells. Thus, the art critic of the resource and magazine Artnet Charlie Finch (Charlie Finch) believes that collectors will soon realize all the unreality of the current price level, and then comes a real disaster.

Forerunners it, according to specialist, has already appeared on the horizon. This:

general economic depression swept the world from India and China to the EU. Will the art market to resist the general decline? The wave of the crisis have hurt Greece, led to capital outflows from Spain and is swept up to the United States.

Unsuccessful Hong Kong market: the Chinese market in recent years has been a stronghold of stability of the global art market, but it seems that he staggered: in comparison with last year, the profitability of the Hong Kong trading fell by 32 percent. While auction houses tend to translate the arrows on the sellers overprice, Finch predicts that a great crisis like the one which broke out in the real estate market in Japan in 1990, after hitting its art market, it is possible even before November.

price bubble: Christie's and Sotheby's in recent years constantly put new record, surpassing the 100 millionth milestone. These figures seem, the ceiling, after which a new estimate and resale operations become impossible, so the only possible way of development of the situation - the way the price down. We can assume that soon the same Munch 100 million in the changed pricing environment will be worth 10 million.

Mass inflation in the art market is able to scare off collectors have an average hand, and because the demand will fall and sell his paintings would be impossible.

And then, according to a sad forecast, after the market would leave the average player, the price bubble will burst and prices will come down to a more realistic level at which demand is possible. For the prediction of Finch, in six months the average price in the market to decline by about half.

All these arguments Artinfo notes that while the demand for popular names continues to grow, but the fact that some price correction is inevitable and a kick in the first place will get superexpensive segment, apparently without painfully familiar references to the crisis in the euro area.

Prepared by Mary Estrova, AI

Source : artinvestment.ru

Editor's comment : Who is the rate of change stories are so high that even the brightest minds are stuck in projections. The rate of development of the crisis (recession or crash), tactical economic consequences (courses, energy prices, the budgets of states, employment, etc.) and political implications (decays alliances and local conflicts) - none superbrain can not yet reliably predict the future for two years ahead. So here we are with her art market - minor matters, if not the twentieth.

about what and whom to experience? Those who beat up a masterpiece of the latter and, in the opinion of the public, strongly overcharged? They do not think so and I am sure, know how to take advantage of the situation. Experience, as Finch that prices will fall an average of two times (incidentally, why would a sudden)? So, will we find a new equilibrium point, there will be willing to actively fly to new levels, and prices will crawl back up. Incidentally, the word bubble begins to work, when an improper rate begins to increase the average level of prices for everything, including the average stuff and nonsense in general. This is not happening now, the indicators do not confirm this. Point-shoot masterpieces - is yes. But everything else is not so much noise produces. On the Russian art market bubble and not observed up to values ​​of 2009, he never sulked.

Will recession? Obviously, one day will be the development of the market is always cyclical. There will be setbacks and local auctions (Hong Kong a couple of years growing up obviously indecent pace). But this is not some kind of apocalyptic scenario. In the art market in general laid a good margin of safety for all scenarios (except perhaps the war).

Generally, it is a question relevant for all times: in which assets to save the accumulated resources in the long perspective in the extreme uncertainty? Every once in a crisis situation or in the pre-war time, all in a panic rush to search for eternal values. And it starts ... Currencies nothing more than promises. Lands, territories and buildings are not impregnable, and with them not zaberesh. Intellectual property is often a specific carrier protein packed and generally difficult. Gold - Commodity price and walking with a rather cumbersome. By the way, every 100 thousand dollars - it's almost 2 kilograms of gold. That is, at current prices Arabic Cezanne for $ 250 million is equivalent to 4921 kg of gold. For such happiness need at least a very serious armored car. And yet still need to remember that in time of peace or a tourist is not going to look at the five tons of industrial precious metal. And on Cezanne go. To set priorities rather figuratively bring the situation to the point of absurdity. Imagine that the "time machine" moved you to the XV century, and soon you have time to back. What you take with you from that era? Deed to the castle, a bag of gold? Or remember the names of Botticelli, Della Francesco Mantegna? Here is the answer. In fact, the nature of the individual prices of ultrahigh (100-250 million for the paintings and drawings) some of this frustration is: more specifically, to put it and nowhere.

Vladimir Bogdanov, AI