How the weather affects art auctions
ARTinvestment.RU   11 августа 2016

Sun or clouds, heat or cold — conditions can significantly affect performance, — analysts say Artnet

what we know on the level of feelings, colleagues from Artnet checked statistically. They have analyzed tens of thousands of auction results, shown in the last 15 years, at auction in new-Йорке. In the sample were auctions Christie's, Sotheby's, Phillips and so on. Then these data were compared with temperature reports at Central Park in new-Йорка in those days, when trades were carried out. It was noted how the sun was one or the other day. The findings were generally predictable, but there were surprises.

1. Sunny day gives the best auction results. It's just predictable: the sun improves mood — including offers to buy. The weather is good in principle, leads to increased consumption.

2. The cold enhances the spirit of competition and, in the best sense of the word, customer aggression. On cool days the buyers are more reckless fighting for lots. This effect was proven for exchange trading (research 2005). And Vice versa: the higher the temperature rises outside, the passivity of become bidders.

3. Too hot weather causes the buyers apathy. Air temperature is correlated with the number of unsold lots. The hotter, the more things remain without buyers. Statistics show that at temperatures up to 10°C the level of sales reaches an average of 78 % and at temperatures of about 30°C the average percentage of sales on new-йоркских auctions is reduced to 75 %.

4. Best combination: Sunny, but cool day — is desirable in the autumn. November than all other months, the number of works exhibited and sold at auction. In one month, in fact, exhibited two times more lots than the rest of the year. At autumn season there are all metoclopeamide success: the days are Sunny (in contrast to that of January), but cool. Recall that we are talking about new-Йорке. And if you compare with the climate of our middle band, then perhaps a gray and gloomy November is not the best option, but frosty and Sunny winter — that have.

the Material was prepared by Maria Onuchina, AI

Sources: artnet.com, artinvestment.ru

editor's Comment:

Hypothesis, we prove the Artnet can be briefly formulated as follows: "in the Fall all sold better because it's Sunny and cool". The logic is plausible, but not perfect. The fact that the strongest directories with the most masterpieces, auctions or prepare for the start of the season (fall, October — November) or the end (spring, April — may). Accordingly, the high sales in these seasons due to less of a temperature change and the high class of the exhibited works. Can be sold well not because it is November, but because it was in November offer the best?

It seems far more important that in October — November buyers working in the business, has celebrated the summer and autumn season, raking "debris" at work and out to maximum shape. Hence, the peak of activity. However, Yes, it is true that the new year holidays and summer vacation in the auction market lead to a decrease in the number of transactions by 10-15 % (in our experience). And who will dare to say that the temperature here is nothing to do with it?

But it is. The growth of trust in online-режиму shopping seasonality in the auction trade will decline. Today trade in art in the summer and in the dead of winter never stops completely. What we initially feared, maintaining a weekly regimen of the Auction. Activity is reduced, but certainly not stops. Buyers have learned to bargain with beaches and ski resorts, make bets on the screens of phones and tablets. In General, adapted. Hall many and not needed. And in the new-Йорке, given the global audience of the American auctions, the weather certainly will no longer affect the results of the auctions.

Vladimir Bogdanov, AI