Art Market: false threat

ARTinvestment.RU – 15.08.2007,15:03

Works of art - good resentful. It is necessary to overdo it with the market function, begin to ignore the cultural role, stop to see the beauty, forget the intellectual part of the collector, followed by a forfeit. «Bubbles» and crises - the so-art market is responding normally to the commercialization of the blind, frankly speculative processes and the destruction of a culture of traffic.

VLADIMIR Nemukhin. Unfinished patience. 1967-1968. Canvas, see t. 82,5 × 99,75. Estimeyt: 10-15 thousand pounds. Sale price: 31,2 thousand pounds. Sotheby's. 01.12.05. Lot number 217

In Britain, apparently back in fashion, all Russian: the oligarchs, spies, diplomats superfluous, as well as reconnaissance aircraft, and a bit of football management to the problems with the art. In late July, an English newspaper The Art Newspaper ( www.theartnewspaper.com ) published an article by John Varoli «Growth in the Russian art market has slowed down», which is widely spread in the Russian-language Internet. Well indeed the case. Do not collapse, not a crisis, but growth has slowed. In practice, the only thing that could upset the collector of this material - it is directly header.

message articles: despite the fact that Sotheby's and Christie's in the June auction total «shoot» a great deal at 41 million pounds (81 million dollars), it is still among auctioneers and art dealers is general view that the era of rapid growth in this area ends.

And who would disagree. If you approach the situation homogenization, as the temperature at the hospital, it is nothing to argue. The time when «the auction stalls» indiscriminately sour everything, confusing recognized masters in their однофамильцами bestsellers, and conclusions of the mediocre folk-salon of artists, truly gone. Less than five years, as the auction market for Russian art have spread the general laws: the work of high quality are rare, causing competition and «feeding» fantastic prices and mediocre things, on the contrary, all the rarer to find new buyers. What is surprising? In the art world takes place the same. Bright confirmation that «phenomenon», in the opinion of J. Varoli, demonstrated a Russian auction Christie's on June 14, when half the fund has only three lots for sale, and a third of things in general, remained unsold. At Sotheby's June 12, only seven lots were sold more expensive than a million dollars and 65% of the more than 500 lots were from the former owners. This now «threatening» stratification in the art: cost becomes more expensive even faster, and cheaper even slower.

VLADIMIR Nemukhin Soir. 1978. Oil on canvas. 101 × 101. Collection A. Glezera. Estimeyt: 40-60 thousand pounds. Sale price: 72.66 thousand pounds. MacDougall's. 15.06.07. Lot number 225

By the way, the annual turnover of Russian at Sotheby's auction in 2006 totaled 153 million dollars - 20 times more than in 2001. These rates of any established market can not grow, growth will inevitably be slow - the British are right as never before.

It is assumed that the next revolution of publications on Russian art terminology «slowdown» replace talk of a «bubble» - are also quite fashionable topic. Just next year, the Art Market will celebrate the twentieth anniversary of the situation in 1988, a golden time, fabulous prices, when the Impressionists began to work cost tens of millions of dollars and market capitalization of art plump as a yeast. Then idyll quickly broke lopnuvshy «bubble», and the pre-crisis market price benchmarks, are believed to be surpassed only a year ago.

Anyway, in 1988 for the global art market, it seems, serves the same starting point as in 1913 for Russian agriculture.

The word «bubble» has captivating effect. It prompts investors to bury the screen in any context. Even if there is an understanding that the current state of the arts market has no reason to be named «bubble». And causes of the problem 20 years ago, and in no помине. In the events of those years, historians have tended to blame the Japanese (not by accident the crisis is sometimes called the Japanese). Investors from the prosperous countries of the rising sun with a «laying» of aggressive gallery begins to invest tens of millions of dollars in paintings - mainly the Impressionists. Previously this had been established for all conditions, European and American banks have been actively entered works of art of the classic investment assets, in large part obezlichivaya the goods, producing under its safeguards surrounding derivative, creating divisions of art-consulting. It is aptly described this process, Richard Feige, a specialist on the art market, in July of the same article The Art Newspaper: «occurred monetization of art». And be a liquid asset - a great responsibility. When the auctions fled Japanese dollars, the euphoria gave way to dismay. There was a huge gap between demand and supply. If you do not have enough money to service operations, they dopechatyvayut, but if you do not have enough paintings by Monet and Van Gogh, they are not dorisuesh in a sense. The price of scarce goods soars to the sky, the amount of commission corrupts unwarranted blow to the state, fixed costs and a sense that the celebration of life will be eternal. But it cost the Japanese «break» of art, like everything was bad. Purchased yesterday for the money has now become impossible to sell. The Japanese buying mainly Impressionist works, and authors of the Paris post-school, but the negative spread to all. And began: ah-me-Yai, «bubble», crisis ... probably all sell and «otsidetsya» in real estate! Such sentiment, characteristic of non-(hero no picture, and its price), the audience, understandably, only exacerbated the crisis.

YEVGENY Rukhin. pliers. 1973. Oil on canvas. 69,2 × 65,1. Estimeyt: 10-15 thousand USD Sale price: 12 thousand U.S. Sotheby's. 23.04.04. Lot number 128

Well, okay, the case has long passed days. What does this story teach? Whether it helps to predict where «burst» next time? If prizadumatsya, history teaches that the crisis is not more than history, such as the Inquisition. Should be a very unfortunate set of circumstances that today or tomorrow swindled «bubble» in scenario 1980. But very tempting to import and to discuss the threat of those times. Reinforcing the findings of isolated facts.

Here is an example. No generous Japanese today? But there is a Chinese billionaires. May 16, come from a wealthy Chinese bought «Green catastrophe» Andy Warhol for 71.7 million dollars. And, for a number of sources, he later bought the «White Center» Mark Rothko for 72.8 million dollars. Why? It is clear that this price is impossible, even for a masterpiece of Titian, Rubens and Leonardo. A Warhol, with all due respect to its innovation, with Titsianom not compare. So there is rumor: the Chinese, who had previously successfully unleash prices for contemporary Chinese art, and came to the Americas. Togo and look naduyut «bubble» ...

Do not convincing the Chinese threat? Please: read about Russia, about the all-oligarchs. Version, on which Russia laugh, probably the same as the Chinese laugh at all of its oligarchs. The logic of the Russian threat is the same: all the wealth of the country passed into the hands of oligarchs who take pictures without looking, unnecessarily blowing prices. Example, which appears in the article by Richard Feige: May 8 at Sotheby's auction of a Russian with a bottle of champagne in one hand and with блондинкой bought another second-job Fayningera Lionel fantastic for 23.3 million dollars. While two years ago, the same thing and not worth three million dollars. Suitable as a justification for the Russian threat? Is that by threatening a bottle in his hand ...

YEVGENY Rukhin. ship. 1969.
Oil on canvas, see v. 100 × 90. Collection A. Glezera. Estimeyt: 40-60 thousand pounds. Sale price: 109.22 thousand pounds. MacDougall's. 15.06.07. Lot number 234

But there are arguments posereznee. Observed that the emergence of «bubble» contributes to the tendency of market participants to excessive speculation, to the desire to obtain profits. Complete analogy with the shares at steadily growing market: In the morning we bought a cheaper evening sold expensive. And it undermines the market. The same Richard Feige remembers that until quite recently, the emergence of tendering the work, bought at auction in less than five years before that, it was unthinkable. An attempt earlier resale may indicate that with the thing that something is wrong, because the auctioneer sharahalis of such pictures as a plague and discouraged customers from these actions. In our time in this hard to believe. Now, resale items, bought a year or two ago, at the half-million or million-dollar price - a phenomenon quite common. Fans, of course, unpleasant, when the painting «scroll», as a deposit, but life goes.

Another observed «incorrect» trend - not secured proven artistic value capitalization growth of modern art. Lickerish example for analysts - Creativity Demena Hirst. People versed especially angry his trick with inlaid diamonds platinum skull «For the love of the Lord». The main figure of Brit-art is close to selling this for $ 100 million, which, of course, in a sense, is a slap in the face for people brought up on the works of the Renaissance. Demen Hurst not only to go sverhambitsioznyh artists. Jeff Koons, Maurizio Kattelan, Takashi Murakami ... Some may be long continued. Here, for example, recently it became known that Charles Saatchi, the creator of many contemporary art gallery, has acquired a great deal of work on 26-year-old American Emily Prince from exhaustive called «U.S. soldiers killed in Iraq and Afghanistan (with the exception of the wounded, Iraqis and Afghans ) ». 3 900 pencil portraits of dead soldiers. Once bought Saatchi (he said that life is now no longer in Britain and it will continue to buy the Americans), then the phenomenon will be seen the public, collectors and investors. There will be a lot of money, but more can, and the grass does not grow.

absurd prices for the work of several contemporary artists leave indifferent analysts not only because of professional skepticism. Just one such paradox financial success may become a little «bubble». And if somewhere it burst, then this negative news is able to cause serious harm to the entire market. Psychology. As a domino effect of the «Japanese» Impressionists.

As of today, experts fear extends to the Russian market? If you think about it a little while. «Bubble» - this is a problem, or re-established markets. In those segments, which are undervalued, the flow of money leads to a correction, rather than the «bubble». Clearly, it was that they could not work the same Rukhin cost 15 thousand dollars, as 5 years ago. It took several years and have cost 150-200 thousand dollars. And will continue to rise, albeit slowly. The artist is good, and the money placed in the head. Let the west and could see a specialist in this very suspicious 10-fold increase in prices, a reason to write about something «Russian bladder». But for the Russian judges nothing strange in that there is no growth. Increased prices for products of key artists in an informal art - it is the market trend.

Rare Multimillion prices (for Russian art, they observed no more than five times per year) in our case are not evidence of bubbles «bubble», but rather a severe shortage of masterpieces. Several strange purchases a year for unnecessary money will not make the weather. «Bubbles» need a massive offer of things at least average quality, buyers promiscuity, the manipulation of the professionals that shape fashion. Which of these risk factors that you have? Nothing. When it was, but now even more likely the opposite: there is a shortage of job offers with the quality of secondary and higher secondary, life has taught to exercise increased caution when conducting transactions, and bid more on your own taste prevails over the opinion of critics and curators. In short, «bubble», possible for the developed markets, you need to earn more.

A funny thing that the global market for art «bubble» also have to swim and swim. The world economy is growing, in the orbit of the art market are involved, all new members of the fastest growing regions in Asia and Latin America. Significant rate increases and a proposal (the same of contemporary art). And the market is not dominated by any solid group of investors (like the Japanese in the 1980's), which reduces the risk of disruption due to a sharp change of mood. So there is a feeling that today talk about «bubble» and the possibility of the crisis - it is mostly a tribute to the genre skeptical viewer. In summer, disappears when other news background, drawn to talk about the threats. In style: Investors! so far so good, but be alert, the enemy does not sleep!

In preparing the article used materials www.theartnewspaper.com , www.artinfo.com